Russia cutting off oil?

[snaw]

$1 trln of all China reserves will buy 6,666,666,667 barrels of oil @ $150 per barrel, China uses 6,534,000 barrels per day (and its growing), this means they can only buy 3 years worth of oil using their whole reserves.

Source: http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/en...il-consumption

Reckon they might get a discount for buying bulk?

[sasguru]

LOL. Geo-politik guru style.

Do you know that China refused to pay European prices for oil and gas from Russia? They simply can't pay 400 dollars per 1000 cubic meters and 150 for oil, and you bet Chinese won't pay anywhere close that if they know that Russia has nobody else to sell it to.

And the kicker is that there are no big pipelines to China - best of all oil production is such that if it is interrupted (and it will be if you can't pump it away) then it may cause big damage to wells, effectively you can't afford to stop doing it until the damn hole in the ground is empty.

You mean there are "European" and "other", presumably lesser, prices for oil? Which producers are dumb enough to sell for less than "European" prices? Who are they?

The no pipeline argument is a better one but not insurmountable.,

[AtW]

Reckon they might get a discount for buying bulk?

Of course, especially if they know Russia has nobody else to sell, the Chinese (unlike the Russian Govt) are not stupid.

I made this calculation to show China won't buy Russian oil at world prices - in fact few years ago Putin tried to pull this trick but the Chinese did not offer world oil/gas prices 2-3 years ago when those prices are a lot lower now, they perfer to burn coal that they got like 400 years worth of burning.

Conclusion - Russia really has no other good customer for oil/gas than EU. It is totally insane politics to piss off your customers like this for no bloody reason - look how smart Chinese are, they rarely say any bad word against USA/EU at all, they just shot down their satellite to quietly show what they can and that was impressive.

[AtW]

You mean there are "European" and "other", presumably lesser, prices for oil? Which producers are dumb enough to sell for less than "European" prices? Who are they?

The chinese are smart - they don't want to buy from Russia at world prices because it would be financing the enemy near their borders. If you look at some of the chinese official maps you will see bug chunks of Siberia marked as Chinese territory.

Unlike me you don't really follow Russian affairs so you don't know that few years ago Putin tried sell oil/gas there, but they could not get good price out of the Chinese back then. Here is example of the kind of money the Chinese are prepared to pay - they loaned cash to Putin's mates to buy illegally company of the jailed Khodorkovsky but they made condition to be paid back in oil at the price of around $16 dollars per barrel. This was at the time when oil was already at 45-50.

[snaw]

Of course, especially if they know Russia has nobody else to sell, the Chinese (unlike the Russian Govt) are not stupid.

I made this calculation to show China won't buy Russian oil at world prices - in fact few years ago Putin tried to pull this trick but the Chinese did not offer world oil/gas prices 2-3 years ago when those prices are a lot lower now, they perfer to burn coal that they got like 400 years worth of burning.

Conclusion - Russia really has no other good customer for oil/gas than EU. It is totally insane politics to piss off your customers like this for no bloody reason - look how smart Chinese are, they rarely say any bad word against USA/EU at all, they just shot down their satellite to quietly show what they can and that was impressive.

Guess the sarcasm went right over your head.

Nice to see you posting though.

[Incognito]

Reckon they might get a discount for buying bulk?

Imagine the Alton tower trips you could get with those clubcard points?

[AtW]

Guess the sarcasm went right over your head.

Nice to see you posting though.

[Incognito]

And the kicker is that there are no big pipelines to China - best of all oil production is such that if it is interrupted (and it will be if you can't pump it away) then it may cause big damage to wells, effectively you can't afford to stop doing it until the damn hole in the ground is empty.

Why do you need a pipeline to China?

http://www.worldpress.org/Europe/898.cfm

[DodgyAgent]

I wasn't, dopey.
MAD=Mutually Assured Destruction.
In practice this means that there will be an unspoken agreement that the US looks after it's backyard while Russia looks after its own, just like in the cold war.

That presumably is all the complexity that your tiny brain can handle?

[sasguru]

That presumably is all the complexity that your tiny brain can handle?

pot, kettle etc.

Actually MAD is very simple indeed, childish even. But real nevertheless.