Probability problem for statisticians/mathematicians

[RichardCranium]

I suspect they could have lifted the whole thing with 5 or 6 Saturn 5 flights...

Or you could have given them a lend of your flying saucer.

[NotAllThere]

Well, I have calculated with complete certainty that if none of the shuttles fly to the ISS, and remain on terra firma, the chance of them blowing up mid-mission is reduced to 0%.

You can't be too careful you know

On the other hand, the probability of an unsuccessful mission rises to 100%. So they'll all blow up if they remain on the ground.

[BrilloPad]

Reminds me of their Grenada invasion in the early 80s: 8000 campaign medals, only 5000 actually went to Grenada.

Not all of those set foot on Grenada, some were air force whose job was to bomb hospitals, shoot up their own side, etc.

My brother (in 1 para) got a medal for Sierra Leone. He was only there for 1 day! Nowhere near the action. He is quite embarrassed by it...

[scooterscot]

The Pr of failure in 30 continuous flights is = 1 - ( 0.98 ^ 30) which is 0.454515681

Who would consider flying on the 30th flight if there is almost a 50% chance of failure? Think I might re-consider.

It is a rather meaningless statistic all the same, as most parts of a shuttle are replaced after a mission therefore failure is unlikely to be attributed to mechanical quality. I understand human error has been the real reason for all space shuttle failures thus far...

Fly with peace of mind fly Japanese

[NotAllThere]

..

[NotAllThere]

Who would consider flying on the 30th flight if there is almost a 50% chance of failure? ...

Is the opposite of a geek a dumb-dumb no-nothing?

[Diver]

Would any of you really like to ride anything into orbit; built by Americans, where the deciding factor on issuing a contract to build it, is Lowest cost estimate ?

[ASB]

Would any of you really like to ride anything into orbit; built by Americans, where the deciding factor on issuing a contract to build it, is Lowest cost estimate ?

I would be perfectly happy flying in anything built by my team anyway.

There is precisely no chance the bloody thing would start.

[BrilloPad]

Who would consider flying on the 30th flight if there is almost a 50% chance of failure? Think I might re-consider.

It is a rather meaningless statistic all the same, as most parts of a shuttle are replaced after a mission therefore failure is unlikely to be attributed to mechanical quality. I understand human error has been the real reason for all space shuttle failures thus far...

Fly with peace of mind fly Japanese

But the chance of failure is still 2%

[scooterscot]

But the chance of failure is still 2%

Tosh - by that rational the 300th flight is almost 100% fail. What happens if it does not?




There lies, dam lies, and statistics....