Question for Ferret

[milanbenes]

Ferret,

you must be feeling pretty smug these days.

How long are planning watch the market fall before getting back in and will you be taking advantage of falling prices to upsize when you re-enter the market ?

Congratulations on your timing.

Milan.

[TimberWolf]

Ferret,

you must be feeling pretty smug these days.

How long are planning watch the market fall before getting back in and will you be taking advantage of falling prices to upsize when you re-enter the market ?

Congratulations on your timing.

Milan.

Yeah but will money stashed in the bank be worth anything when the time comes to buy? At least the rest of us have houses, and they never go down in value

[ferret]

Hey Milan - .Net gravy train still tooting? Hope all is well with the Passat, am really starting to like mine. Apart from it now costs £80 to fill up

Not smug when the electrics went to tulipe in the rented house here, sounds like a rewiring job which is not nice when you work from home and the Mrs is 9 days overdue... Only got one power socket upstairs and extension leads around the house to power the boiler and fridge etc. Luckily the room here with the PCs in is unaffected. Still, could be a nice way of getting a rent reduction so will look on the bright side!

Like TimberWolf said, hyper inflation could turn 10 years of equity into a 4 pack of Tennant's Super and 20 Lambert and Bulters yet so will see how it all goes. Seems like we called the top of the market but until I manage to buy the £600k house I am after for £300k cash then I won't be totally satisfied

Still, with the Mrs 9 days late the rest of it can go to hell as long as her and the little ones are safe and well. Is only money after all

[Lucy]

I hope all goes well with your new lil one fez.

[Cyberman]

I think a few people will find a surprise with house prices after the Tories get in. I believe that HIPS is having a seriously negative effect, and thankfully they have vowed to abolish this silly expensive bureacracy.

Lower interest rates next year plus hyper inflation could actually have a very positive inpact in pushing house prices upwards within 2-3 years, coupled with Tory policies.

Time will tell, but the problem with being out of the market is that you could miss the boat.

[ferret]

I think a few people will find a surprise with house prices after the Tories get in. I believe that HIPS is having a seriously negative effect, and thankfully they have vowed to abolish this silly expensive bureacracy.

Lower interest rates next year plus hyper inflation could actually have a very positive inpact in pushing house prices upwards within 2-3 years, coupled with Tory policies.

Time will tell, but the problem with being out of the market is that you could miss the boat.

When will the tories get in though? Not in time to save the rapid deflation of house prices that we are seeing now. At 2% (plus) a month falls I am £5k a month better off not having the house at the moment.

Who in their right mind would drop interest rates with inflation as it currently stands?

Yes, hyper inflation could push up houses but with wages rising to compensate the lower value of currency then it would not be an issue - as we sold at the top of the market then jumping back in if things look to be heading that way would not be a big deal.

I still reckon we will see 30-50% drop in house prices over the next three years - at 2.5% per month, as we have seen for the last couple of months, we could be over 40% down on today's in two years.

I have been expecting the bubble to pop for the last three years though so I am not often right. Only got out of the house we were in as needed more room and was not prepared to get a massive mortgage so the only option was to rent. In this position due to the way it worked out rather than simply trying to play the market. I am not worried about how things worked out, just thankful I have a level-headed partner who could see the madness is squandering all our savings plus 50% of income on a mortgage to get the size of house we need at the minute.

Cheers Lucy - am sure the sprog and Mrs F will be fine. Health and welfare put things like cash in perspective. I grew up poor so know that as long as I have a roof over our heads and food in our bellies we will be OK, the rest of it it just needless cack to be honest. Apart from the glorious Passat of course As for food in our bellies the house here has a glorious garden. The first of the potatoes will be ready this week, the peas are all in flower, the runner beans are ready to crop plus the sweetcorn, onions, sprouts, courgettes and pumpkins are coming on nicely. Shame the carrots and parsnips did not emerge, think it was dodgy seeds so will be chucking some more in this weekend.

[ferret]

Ferret,

you must be feeling pretty smug these days.

How long are planning watch the market fall before getting back in and will you be taking advantage of falling prices to upsize when you re-enter the market ?

Congratulations on your timing.

Milan.

Apologies Milan, just realised I did not answer your questions.

I have no idea how long we will stay renting. Will just watch and see what happens. Observe the carnage from the side-lines. We moved as we had outgrown the house we bought in the late nineties, me working from home and one kid out and another on the way meant we had just run out of room. If we could have extended the house we probably would have done that instead of move.

Now that we are in this situation I cannot imagine moving while prices are dropping the way they are.

We bought when we did as it was cheaper to buy than rent. At this point when we moved it was far cheaper to rent than buy. We pay less than £1k a month for a house that would be valued at about £500k. To buy this kind of place would have required a £300k mortgage which would have been £1500 per month at last year's interest rates so hate to think what it would be like now. Just got to do the maths at the time I guess and make a rational judgement.

Of course the new kiddie means we will not feel like moving for a year or so as well plus the house here is really nice. Apart from the rewiring it is just what we need. Plus the landlord has no mortgage on the place and lives abroad and has no plans to sell or come back here so we should be comfortable here for the next couple of years at least I reckon. I think (bar the hyperinflation scenario) it will take two to three years for house prices to become realistic again and then there is also the possibility of overshoot as the non-thinking public view houses as a "bad investment" and "bound to loose you money".

We are shifting money around to try and maximise interest rates and will probably stick some in 6 or 12 month bonds shortly if interest rates go up a bit. This way we are covering the rent through interest payments and will use the lump sum as a large deposit to up-size when the time is right. That is the plan anyway. Could get whacked along the way but is all part of the game!

[NickFitz]

I think a few people will find a surprise with house prices after the Tories get in. I believe that HIPS is having a seriously negative effect, and thankfully they have vowed to abolish this silly expensive bureacracy.

Lower interest rates next year plus hyper inflation could actually have a very positive inpact in pushing house prices upwards within 2-3 years, coupled with Tory policies.

Time will tell, but the problem with being out of the market is that you could miss the boat.

Does nobody remember that the last time the housing market went all to pot was under a Tory government?

And the time before that?

What on earth makes you think that Tory policies will make anything better?

Still, dream on... it's nice that you have dreams. Just don't expect them to come to anything, if they're based on the idea of the Tories bandaging your knee, kissing you on the forehead, and making it all better.

FFS

[BrilloPad]

Does nobody remember that the last time the housing market went all to pot was under a Tory government?

And the time before that?

What on earth makes you think that Tory policies will make anything better?

Still, dream on... it's nice that you have dreams. Just don't expect them to come to anything, if they're based on the idea of the Tories bandaging your knee, kissing you on the forehead, and making it all better.

FFS

As a Tory voter at last 6 elections I have to agree with Nick. Particularly the FFS...

[rootsnall]

I believe that HIPS is having a seriously negative effect

Sod all to do with it ! Possibly 0.0000001% !?

Well done Ferret, I'm a bit jealous, my timing was exactly wrong, eventually bought in the peak month as my Mrs was starting to crack. We did flog something at the same time and got rid of my Mrs original house so not a disaster but if only !!!!!!

I think you'll be safe now that the falls have kicked in and I'd be preparing for a wait of a few years if you really want to make a killing. The bottom last time gave you a couple of years before things suddenly took off in the SE. I've seen quite a good post somewhere showing newspaper headlines mostly by 'housing experts' ( VIs ) over 6 or 7 years ( 89-95ish ) telling you that things were about to pick up and you need to buy NOW.

In terms of buying I would make embarrasingly low offers on properties that are unoccupied. There won't be real killings to be made until most of the developers and investors have been seen off and only the real scrooge ones ( ie. the ones that survive crashes ) are left to bid against you.