Global Cooling

[TimberWolf]

...careful analysis reveals the last ten years have not risen.

It's worse than that, if you look at the temperature change in the last year and extroplate forward, the Earth will plunge to a rather chilly absolute zero degrees Kelvin (-273.15 degrees C) in just 488 years. Doomed.

[DimPrawn]

In 50 years do you think the world will be hotter or cooler than it is now?

Either. The point is we have no influence either way (in any meaningfull amount).

In 50 years the climate will be what the climate will be. The fact that we will be living in caves due to carbon "taxes" will be of no consequence.

[sasguru]

That's a different argument. Your original posting stupidly suggested that a yearly blip meant the overall trend was down.
If you can't grasp such a simple point I doubt you would grasp the arguments for or against AGW.

[TimberWolf]

That's a different argument. Your original posting stupidly suggested that a yearly blip meant the overall trend was down.
If you can't grasp such a simple point I doubt you would grasp the arguments for or against AGW.

What made me laugh is that the two points being examined were the highs and lows in the graph.

[DimPrawn]

That's a different argument. Your original posting stupidly suggested that a yearly blip meant the overall trend was down.
If you can't grasp such a simple point I doubt you would grasp the arguments for or against AGW.

Why is it valid to make all these graphs (often showing 100 years temperature change) relative to a timespan of 10 or 20 years?

The temperature variation 2000 to 2007 is almost zero. Now we discount the "statistical anomally" of 2008 due to another natural phenomena.

It's statistical bulltulip commissioned by governments and government funded bodies.

[TheBigYinJames]

It's statistical bulltulip commissioned by governments and government funded bodies.

An analogy is a person who flips a coin three times, and gets two heads, and then tries to claim that there must be something wrong with the coin because heads came up more often than tails. Try throwing the coin 300 or 3000 times before trying to clami some special generalised law from it.

Who cares if the 1990s was the hottest decade since records began (barely 150 years before). On any suitably selected scale, with suitable discounts of 'bad' data, I can make the 1990s the hottest, wettest, coldest, driest, weirdest decade, or whatever I want.

It's because statistical analysis is not intuitive that bookmakers and Climate Change peddlars make a living.

[DimPrawn]

At least someone other than the government are cashing in on the hysteria

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7457317.stm

[sasguru]

It's clear that neither of you have any understanding of statistics. You seem to be making my point for me.

Why is it valid to make all these graphs (often showing 100 years temperature change) relative to a timespan of 10 or 20 years?

The temperature variation 2000 to 2007 is almost zero. Now we discount the "statistical anomally" of 2008 due to another natural phenomena.

.

An analogy is a person who flips a coin three times, and gets two heads, and then tries to claim that there must be something wrong with the coin because heads came up more often than tails. Try throwing the coin 300 or 3000 times before trying to clami some special generalised law from it.

.

Both are correct. Having a graph showing 20 years, like DP originally posted is like spinning a coin just 20 times. It's perfectly possible that you will get 20 heads in a row. Can you then infer that the coin will always be heads? No.
Similarly all such temperature graphs should show a period of time where we can judge the the overall trend, say a few hundred years.
And every graph in this thread shows an upward trend just as a graph of a coin tossed a hundred times would show the direction of bias (or not) of the coin.

[TheBigYinJames]

At least someone other than the government are cashing in on the hysteria

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7457317.stm

It's the new "Mars face / Area 51 / Roswell" conspiracy. All the same mouth-breathers are coming out of the woodwork to shout and point at stuff and tell us we're all going to die.

[sasguru]

It's the new "Mars face / Area 51 / Roswell" conspiracy. All the same mouth-breathers are coming out of the woodwork to shout and point at stuff and tell us we're all going to die.

Yes, that's it.
Time for your meds.