Where can I find expert analysis on housing predictions?

[AtW]

On the other hand, how do you personally know that my situation is uncommon?

It's uncommon - I know this on the basis of information from various new sources about average time it takes for a house to get offers once it was put out on market - this time has been increasing steadily for some time and right now I think it is the longest since records begun.

4 days for house to sell right now is highly abnormal - http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008....marketturmoil

"The survey shows the average time to sell a home was 8.5 weeks in January, the longest since it began seven years ago."

Therefore, my conclusion about your situation being highly abnormal (and thus can be discounted) was correct. It is a completely different (irrelevant) question why you sold so fast - the point I am making is that your experience is totally unrelated to average happening on the market.

Is this your own personal experience? You rent a flat, and don't own other property, so it can't be that.
ISTM it's from reading cheap redtop journo's comments - but you should remember; they are there to create sensationalism out of the mundane.

I never tried heroin. On the basis of various sources I have concluded that it would lead to disaster, I don't need to try it just because someone would say that those people might be wrong - the evidence is sufficiently good for me to make conclusion on the basis of that data.

It's not journalists by the way, these records (how long it takes to sell house) are kept by people who are actually biased in a way to keep that figure down, rather than up. The reality is probably that it takes longer to sell house than they claim.

Perhaps you'd like to share with us when you think that the crash will really start, or how long it will last, or what sort of drop we're expecting?

What I know is by far more important - fundamentally house prices in the UK are seriously overpriced against any half-good indicator, right now morgage funds are being turned off and morgage rates for existing customers (who bought on the peak of house price values) are going up, so the crash is inevitable and it does not really matter right now if it will be by 30 or 50% - it is impossible to make accurate prediction on this one right now, we will just have to stay put and analyse incoming data. I have not seen what happened here in early 90s, but from the information that I could find about it I think this one will be considerably worse.

[tay]

I am pretty pleased how far SKA went. I don't think I promised anything to you personally, so I don't think you are in position to demand anything, frankly it's my business and you are not investor in it, so your words towards it have near zero weight as far as I am concerned.

I am not a financial guru, I just have got good education and common sense - imminent house prices crash is proof that my predictions were correct, the only reason the crash did not happen earlier is reckless lending by banks supplied with cheap money by the Fed.

Just like with SKA long term things require patience, something that I do have - just like with the house prices I will be right about SKA, at least for myself - if someone else like you does not think so, then this does not bother me too much.

You predicted it years ago! and you were horribly wrong as to the timing. Even a broken clock is right twice a day... you ATW are that broken clock.
I predict that after trhis crash.. there will be another boom... and then another crash.. at some point...

just call me Nostrdatay

[AtW]

You predicted it years ago! and you were horribly wrong as to the timing.

That's rubbish accusation - of course I was talking about it for years, I did not expect banks to be so complicit in this stuff, so now not only house prices will drop but also banking system is under threat - I sure did not predict that, and turns out nobody else did!

The only reason the market did not crash in around 2003-4 is because they started lending serious subprime loans - look back at growth in LTV to 125% (northern rock was very good at those), they just found a way to prevent bubble from bursting a bit longer - does not change the fact that it is bursting now (despite top line support from central banks, without whom it would have crashed years ago).

Personally I think the prices will have to drop by 50% - in real terms, this will probably be 30% in face value, and another 20% via inflation.

[tay]

That's rubbish accusation - of course I was talking about it for years, I did not expect banks to be so complicit in this stuff, so now not only house prices will drop but also banking system is under threat - I sure did not predict that, and turns out nobody else did!

Its not rubbish, its true, you said so yourself.

[ASB]

Not sure where one crosses the line between realism and doomsaying, but I reckon prices will fall at least 30% from their peak, for the simple reason that first time buyers can't be excluded for ever, and a large proportion of these also have huge student loan and other credit card debts.

But of course BTLers could take up all the slack and property ownership as a percentage of population drop to levels of 50 or even 100 years ago. The Government would probably like that, as it would bring the UK more in line with the EU, but they'd be buried at the next election!

Affordability is an issue. Where I am in the south west mortgage payments of FTB type property represent generally about 150% of take home pay. Clearly excludes most FTBs.

However, buying ones first property has always been difficult. Perhaps also trading up. Ok, so my folks bought a fairly substantial house in Surrey 40 add years ago for 2 bob, but at the time they only earned a groat each.

My first property was about 21k. I was only earning 5k. Yes it was a struggle. Expectations have also improved. I sold one of my properties a couple of years back, it was typical FTB sort of "wish". 2 beds, 2 baths, garage, white goods, carpets, curtains. 20 years previous the aspirations were mainly for something that didn't leak - too much. [I was quite surprised to sell it to a BTLer whos was financing most of it, yields just wern't there to support it in my view]

Where we seem royally screwed is that in a low inflation low interest rate climate affordability doesn't improve with time due to inflationary pressure.

But are falling prices necessarily a bad thing? If you only have one property, or a limited portfolio it is probably largely irrelevant. If you are hoping to move up market falling prices - or at least stable - are probably actually a good thing, since it stops that next property getting further away.

In my position my main residence is (or was ) about 800. so this falls 250k and I sulk a bit. Or do I ?

Whilst I am as far up the ladder as I am likely to go my kids haven't started on it yet. Currently the only real hope they have of getting on the ladder is for me to bung 'em about 70k each when the leave UNI/whatever. Either that or they'll be at home till doomsday......

So, things fall 30% I don't need to dole out 140k, so I look like I'm 110k down on the deal but I'm not since I don't have the loan to service. All the're doing is getting some of their inheritance a bit earlier and being effectively forced to use it in a wiser manner.

[AtW]

Its not rubbish, its true, you said so yourself.

When did I point an exact year of crash? I don't think I ever did. What I said is that crash is imminent - not in 10 years, but a lot shorter, and the longer it went (and it did went for too long) the harder the crash is going to be.

The funny thing is that the alternative point of view on this board was pretty much that prices can't crash at all - comparing to those guys I am 200% correct

[M_B]

The AtW baiting in this thread is quite frankly childish.

You all need to have a word with yourselves, otherwise some other poor f****r like me will end up reading this far too.

[ASB]

The funny thing is that the alternative point of view on this board was pretty much that prices can't crash at all - comparing to those guys I am 200% correct

Not yet you're not. There is no crash. This may prove to be the start of one but nobody actually knows.

Anyway I seem to recall the prevailing view was that prices and affordability were sustainable at their then current levels.

[AtW]

Not yet you're not. There is no crash. This may prove to be the start of one but nobody actually knows.

Indeed. We shall see in 6 months time the effect of higher morgage rates and general lack of morgages for buyers.

[shoes]

Those people that can't afford to buy rent. End of. Rental prices and yields don't drive the whole of the housing market.

Cr4p.

I can afford to buy but I rent. Because it is cheaper and suits my lifestyle. When prices come down there will come a point when it is cheaper to buy than rent (for my circumstances, ie contractor sized deposit). At that point I am likely to buy a home for myself. I will also seriously consider BTL.

Rental prices are an indication of affordability. House prices are an indication of the availability of credit. This is how house prices have risen relative to rents to a point where it is cheaper to rent than buy.

Whats coming next is fairly obvious.