Where can I find expert analysis on housing predictions?

[51st State]

I am not a financial guru, I just have got good education and common sense - imminent house prices crash is proof that my predictions were correct, the only reason the crash did not happen earlier is reckless lending by banks supplied with cheap money by the Fed.

Just like with SKA long term things require patience, something that I do have - just like with the house prices I will be right about SKA, at least for myself - if someone else like you does not think so, then this does not bother me too much.

One observation about the imminent house price crash, squirrel-boy

If things are as bad as you say, why did my house sell in 4 days (over Easter as well) from me advertising to accepting offer with proof of funds?

Why is it that many people I know (at least the ones who have real money, not just mountains of debt) are not shelving plans to buy/sell - even with lower lending limits/less mortgage product availability etc?

ISTM that the crunch is only a crunch for those who have spent the last few years "living the dream" to quote Peter Ridsdale (the nob).

[AtW]

he he. Your foresight was truly impressive, not! Still have you head firmly implanted in your rear I see. Watch out for the rush of air that will occur when you pull your head out and the resulting vacuum is filled.

I have a consistent position that I consider honourable one - achievement of big money for me is not #1 priority for me.

[AtW]

If things are as bad as you say, why did my house sell in 4 days (over Easter as well) from me advertising to accepting offer with proof of funds?

It is typical for people (not just on this board) to view reality from personal point of view - they have no clue that macroeconomic outlook deals with big trends that affect things on average. So what if you had an offer? Good for you! Maybe you had good location, maybe that buyer is a truly stupid person, who knows, I am sure you don't really care about reasons why you sold, all you care about having sold it or getting offers for it, but what you fail to recognise is that your situation is no longer common so while you personally might do well out of it (which is all you care about, right?) but in the big scheme of things you will be exception to the rule, but not the rule.

The sentiment has changed - all papers now talk about crash, the difference is just how much, more importantly morgages are getting more expensive and less of them actually present. The crash has not really started yet - we are at a very early stage right now.

[bogeyman]

imminent house prices crash is proof that my predictions were correct

It is by no means certain that a 'house prices crash' will occur at all, let alone an 'imminent' one.

What's your definition of 'imminent' then Atw?

[bogeyman]

I have a consistent position that I consider honourable one - achievement of big money for me is not #1 priority for me.

Just as well old boy, just as well.

[bogeyman]

all papers now talk about crash

Ah!

I think we have found the source of AtW's unfailing financial insight

[ASB]

One observation about the imminent house price crash, squirrel-boy

A couple of observations on two point you mentioned:-

Percentage of social housing in mandated through policy and effectively forced through various agreements as a condition of grant of planning. In some areas this is on developments as low as 4 units.

If you accept the veracity of the Nationwides figures then the average Q1 1975- Q1 2000 only shows a 33% average real term growth across the country. It seems entirely plausible that some regions in the period may well have suffered falls, equally prices had been dropping rapidly since about 72/73. It is quite plausible these could show nil growth.

Personally I think the doom sayers are overdoing it. But they could be right.

[AtW]

Personally I think the doom sayers are overdoing it. But they could be right.

Panic is known to swing down values much deeper than their increase when euphoria of never ending price increases.

Thing is - the West has been living way beyond its means for a long time - the debt is just so high it is unreal, this crash might be so hard that there won't be big house price bubbles for a very long time.

[Marina]

.. Personally I think the doomsayers are overdoing it. But they could be right.

Not sure where one crosses the line between realism and doomsaying, but I reckon prices will fall at least 30% from their peak, for the simple reason that first time buyers can't be excluded for ever, and a large proportion of these also have huge student loan and other credit card debts.

But of course BTLers could take up all the slack and property ownership as a percentage of population drop to levels of 50 or even 100 years ago. The Government would probably like that, as it would bring the UK more in line with the EU, but they'd be buried at the next election!

[51st State]

It is typical for people (not just on this board) to view reality from personal point of view - they have no clue that macroeconomic outlook deals with big trends that affect things on average. So what if you had an offer? Good for you! Maybe you had good location, maybe that buyer is a truly stupid person, who knows, I am sure you don't really care about reasons why you sold, all you care about having sold it or getting offers for it, but what you fail to recognise is that your situation is no longer common so while you personally might do well out of it (which is all you care about, right?) but in the big scheme of things you will be exception to the rule, but not the rule.

The sentiment has changed - all papers now talk about crash, the difference is just how much, more importantly morgages are getting more expensive and less of them actually present. The crash has not really started yet - we are at a very early stage right now.

On the other hand, how do you personally know that my situation is uncommon?

Is this your own personal experience? You rent a flat, and don't own other property, so it can't be that.
ISTM it's from reading cheap redtop journo's comments - but you should remember; they are there to create sensationalism out of the mundane.

My situatiuon can't be particularly exclusive; the 5 people in the buying chain have all found and bought prop. in the last 4 weeks. The longest I believe that one of the houses has been on sale for is 6 weeks.

Perhaps you'd like to share with us when you think that the crash will really start, or how long it will last, or what sort of drop we're expecting?