To address the original point, Labour had a larger membership under Corbyn than it does now and never got into government under him but did under Starmer.
Large party membership shows you have convinced a small (in the context of the electorate) amount of people to be dedicated to your cause. Unfortunately come election time they still only get one vote like everyone else and you have to persuade floating voters in marginals to support you, which is a different thing.
Also:
Labour have a large majority and will almost certainly see out their term. The economy might very well have been turned around by then.
The Conservatives might very well have a new leader come the next election.
Reform might have a support ceiling.
In other words predicting an election this far out is nearly impossible.
Large party membership shows you have convinced a small (in the context of the electorate) amount of people to be dedicated to your cause. Unfortunately come election time they still only get one vote like everyone else and you have to persuade floating voters in marginals to support you, which is a different thing.
Also:
Labour have a large majority and will almost certainly see out their term. The economy might very well have been turned around by then.
The Conservatives might very well have a new leader come the next election.
Reform might have a support ceiling.
In other words predicting an election this far out is nearly impossible.
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