Trump will win the presidency

[DealorNoDeal]

He really doesn't need to land a knock-out punch. Biden is 10% ahead nationally, and ahead by enough in enough of the battle-ground states. Roughly half the (voting) electorate have voted already. Whatever Biden's shortcomings as a candidate, what is really motivating people in this election is dislike of Trump, and Trump has done nothing to diminish that during his campaign. All he has done is reach out to his base, who are already locked in - he really is preaching to the choir.

This.

It's all about Trump. The only thing that really matters about Biden is he's not toxic like Clinton.

I've seen voters interviewed on Ch4 News who say they would pretty much vote for anyone (Coco the clown, Spunge bob square pants) but Trump.

[fullyautomatix]

This.

It's all about Trump. The only thing that really matters about Biden is he's not toxic like Clinton.

I've seen voters interviewed on Ch4 News who say they would pretty much vote for anyone (Coco the clown, Spunge bob square pants) but Trump.

Some voters interviewed on some news channel does not mean Trump will lose this election.

The biggest question is, who will actually go out and vote, that will swing it in either direction. Trump supporters will most definitely go and vote, he has galvanised them, they are itching to vote him back in. Democrat voters meanwhile are most likely to sit at home and not bother voting, they do not think Biden can win and they certainly do not want to vote for a main so weak and frail. They will wait another 4 years for a much younger and stronger candidate.

[mattster]

Democrat voters meanwhile are most likely to sit at home and not bother voting, they do not think Biden can win and they certainly do not want to vote for a main so weak and frail.

You're just making this up, aren't you? Turnout is on course to be the highest for over a hundred years, and those extra voters seem far more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, who turned out pretty strongly in 2016. In general, high turnout favours Democrats, and in particular high turnout of younger voters - and they seem to be voting in this election as never before.

[jamesbrown]

He really doesn't need to land a knock-out punch. Biden is 10% ahead nationally, and ahead by enough in enough of the battle-ground states. Roughly half the (voting) electorate have voted already. Whatever Biden's shortcomings as a candidate, what is really motivating people in this election is dislike of Trump, and Trump has done nothing to diminish that during his campaign. All he has done is reach out to his base, who are already locked in - he really is preaching to the choir.

Yurp.

I can already sense a certain frothing at the mouth and childlike, fingers-in-ears, resistance to the polling facts from some of our CUK Trump cheercretins. Remember, the national polls from 2016 were pretty good. The state and district polls, less so. This time around, all polls are telling a similar story. Trump has a very narrow, and narrowing, path to victory.

[minestrone]

Trump just has to keep Pennsylvania and Florida and the polls in the last few days are saying he will.

This really isn't hard.

[jamesbrown]

It's going to be quite brutal for some of us. They will probably resort to drinking cheap whisky at their negative win party.

[fullyautomatix]

This is 2020 after all, who knows, against all odds, Trump might even take California this time, such are his prospects currently. I think the virus infection has actually re invigorated him and woken up the beast in him. His campaign rallies are outstanding.

[jamesbrown]

RCP PA polling average: Biden +3.5
U Wisc./YouGov PA, Oct 26: +8
Reuters/Ipsos PA, Oct 26: +5



You have to look to the obviously biased Republican pollsters for any hope in PA or nationally, like Rasmussen and Trafalgar Group. Therein lies tremendous cretinism.

[minestrone]

RCP PA polling average: Biden +3.5
U Wisc./YouGov PA, Oct 26: +8
Reuters/Ipsos PA, Oct 26: +5



You have to look to the obviously biased Republican pollsters for any hope in PA or nationally, like Rasmussen and Trafalgar Group. Therein lies tremendous cretinism.

I think that is what is called selection bias.

[DealorNoDeal]

This is 2020 after all, who knows, against all odds, Trump might even take California this time, such are his prospects currently. I think the virus infection has actually re invigorated him and woken up the beast in him. His campaign rallies are outstanding.

Not suprising that a fan of Corbyn would be a Trump supporter.