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Winter wave of coronavirus 'could be worse than first'

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    #31
    Gruniad: R Rate
    I'm perfect, in a very specific and limited way.
    Hands... out infractions
    Face... the music
    Space... between the ears

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      #32
      Given how severe many cases are R of just 1.2 will be enough to collapse the health system.

      Also some mutation apparently made virus more effective at spreading.

      Comment


        #33
        I'm perfect, in a very specific and limited way.
        Hands... out infractions
        Face... the music
        Space... between the ears

        Comment


          #34
          Originally posted by WTFH View Post
          Do you think factors such as the tube in London for example may mean that 3 is about the most you are going to get by stuffing lots of infected people into a small unventilated space?

          And is this therefore completely a typical of how the virus would spread in a leafy commuter town where the only time I get within a metre of someone is my wife twice a year?

          So maybe rather than a blanket measure you enforce measures relevant to the situation and location?

          Comment


            #35
            Originally posted by original PM View Post
            Do you think factors such as the tube in London for example may mean that 3 is about the most you are going to get by stuffing lots of infected people into a small unventilated space?
            No, I don't think that. There is no evidence that the reason for the high rate was because of "stuffing lots of infected people into a small unventilated space".
            The evidence would tend to point to there being a high population density that are mobile.


            Originally posted by original PM View Post
            And is this therefore completely a typical of how the virus would spread in a leafy commuter town where the only time I get within a metre of someone is my wife twice a year?
            No, it doesn't follow, it's a non-sequitur.
            A commuter town may show a lower number of cases per square km because of the population density, but because of the high number of interactions and travel, then the number will not be low.
            Now, the example you make of yourself is "I live in a commuter town, but I do not go anywhere". A person who does not interact with others is less likely to pick up the virus. How leafy (or not) your location is has very little impact

            Originally posted by original PM View Post
            So maybe rather than a blanket measure you enforce measures relevant to the situation and location?
            Blanket measures are a quick win while better plans are thought through. The issue is that you say "relevant to the situation and location". That is the minefield where individuals have to act in ways laid down by others, without wailing "I know my rights", etc.
            e.g. all non-working people must stay at home. Whether they are retired, unemployed, etc. ALL. At home. No going out, no socialising.
            All those with compromised immune systems or weakened respiratory systems must also stay at home.
            All non-essential deliveries should be cancelled so that delivery organisations can focus on delivering food to those who are staying at home, and medical supplies to those that need them.
            All non-essential travel is cancelled for everyone.

            After that, you could start looking by location - if all locations are locked down, and everyone in a town is tested and found to be negative, then allow those who live in that town to travel within that town, but not outside it, and no one outside is allowed in.
            etc.


            Hindsight is a wonderful thing, so is listening to experts.
            The measures that should have been enforced from early February:
            1. Close the borders.
            2. Test all arrivals and quarantine them for 14 days.
            3. Implement track and trace
            4. Test everyone entering and leaving hospital
            5. Protect the vulnerable
            6. Listen to the medics, not the unelected bureaucrats or party donors.
            I'm perfect, in a very specific and limited way.
            Hands... out infractions
            Face... the music
            Space... between the ears

            Comment


              #36
              Originally posted by original PM View Post
              No it's fine I can go to the pub and not wear a face mask where I will sit in the same place for a few hours.

              But a 15 minute trip to the supermarket is like riding a plague ridden corpse apparently.

              Although it gets better so you do not have to wear a medical grade face mask you can just wear a cloth covering.

              Which according to this article is pointless.

              Do face masks work against the coronavirus and should you wear one? | New Scientist

              So enforced facial coverings anyone?

              Can't see that endings well .. hopefully after a while it will only apply to women.

              [emoji2957][emoji849]

              The aisles in supermarkets aren't as wide as two metres. People walking past breathe into the air. It has recently been supported by US and UK scientists that the virus could remain airborne, contrary to initial surmising, that would explain the transmission on flights and indoor areas with limited fresh air coming in. Air conditioning is a risk too. That is to suggest: the virus doesn't infect someone else purely via droplets but can remain in the air for a period of time, presumably hours.

              I don't understand the apprehension by some to use a mask whilst shopping in a supermarket. Those who go to beer gardens are significantly increasing the possibility of exposure to the virus. The common denominator for transmission is the pub workers. From bar to table as many as three people could have touched the glass before setting it down. Are they washing or disinfecting their hands after these repeated contact points? No, of course they are not.

              When you learn to drive you are taught not to rely on others following rules or being polite. The same applies to this pandemic: trust no random worker or stranger and avoid such places. A few beers in an otherwise empty garden or a picnic in the countryside with friends, separate cars, socially distanced, makes more sense than lots of trips to beer gardens.

              Different masks are used in hospitals and work, otherwise they wouldn't be used at all. Use your head.
              Last edited by rogerfederer; 14 July 2020, 14:17.

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                #37

                Now look on the bright side ....


                BTW - would you like to earn 5k US Dollars - you can if you can simply proove that "the virus " SARS2/COVID19 exists - this is genuine - I watched the youtube video and at the end I thought - yep that Dr has a point - it seems you cannot prove scientifically that COVID19 exists with the current methods - maybe you can come up with a bright idea and win 5k !!!!

                Seems then that belief in "the virus" is - well an act of Faith.

                Unless some bight spark can prove the Dr is wrong and win 5000 US Dollars !

                Comment


                  #38
                  Originally posted by AlfredJPruffock View Post

                  Now look on the bright side ....


                  BTW - would you like to earn 5k US Dollars - you can if you can simply proove that "the virus " SARS2/COVID19 exists - this is genuine - I watched the youtube video and at the end I thought - yep that Dr has a point - it seems you cannot prove scientifically that COVID19 exists with the current methods - maybe you can come up with a bright idea and win 5k !!!!

                  Seems then that belief in "the virus" is - well an act of Faith.

                  Unless some bight spark can prove the Dr is wrong and win 5000 US Dollars !

                  Comment


                    #39
                    Why won’t this Doctor get a job in Covid ward without a mask?

                    Thus way he gets to keep his 5k for the funeral

                    Comment


                      #40
                      Originally posted by AtW View Post
                      “ The UK could see about 120,000 new coronavirus deaths in a second wave of infections this winter, scientists say.

                      Asked to model a "reasonable" worst-case scenario, they suggest a range between 24,500 and 251,000 of virus-related deaths in hospitals alone, peaking in January and February.”

                      Winter wave of coronavirus 'could be worse than first' - BBC News

                      So new lockdown is guaranteed

                      We need to extend the furlough for at least another 6 months then. Maybe 12 to be safe.


                      Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum
                      http://www.cih.org/news-article/disp...housing_market

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