DimPrawn's trading thread

[Old Greg]

A lockdown is where people can't travel or do what they want. That won't be the case by the end of the summer.

Wearing a mask or standing 2m apart from someone isn't a lock down. It's like saying introducing speed limits on the motorway or security checks at an airport is a lockdown.

Or have we redefined the term "lockdown".

Lockdowns damage the economy safety precautions don't.

I'm not so sure about this. Social distancing rules will prevent many businesses from opening for a long time. I don't expect pubs to reopen by the end of summer. Not sure about discretionary international travel for holidays. It's hard to see what is going to change in terms of the spread of the disease to make everything reopen.

[BlasterBates]

Basically agree with you, although I think social distancing will continue to make a large fraction of retail and hospitality non-viable for many months to come. But it's category different than a lockdown.

Yes I would agree with that, the economy will be different. Online entertainment will boom

[BlasterBates]

I'm not so sure about this. Social distancing rules will prevent many businesses from opening for a long time. I don't expect pubs to reopen by the end of summer. Not sure about discretionary international travel for holidays. It's hard to see what is going to change in terms of the spread of the disease to make everything reopen.

They'll have to adapt or go and work on a fruit farm.

[jamesbrown]

I'm not so sure about this. Social distancing rules will prevent many businesses from opening for a long time. I don't expect pubs to reopen by the end of summer. Not sure about discretionary international travel for holidays. It's hard to see what is going to change in terms of the spread of the disease to make everything reopen.

I think the main difference is that lockdown measures prevent activities, while social distancing measures merely thin ongoing activities. Obviously, social distancing measures are imposed during lockdown too for "allowed" activities, like shopping.

It's going to be interesting to see what activities remain viable. Are airlines viable at, say, 2/3rds capacity? Are pubs viable at, say, half capacity? Many businesses are screwed for the long-term, absent ongoing gov't help (which will probably be offered, at least to some degree).

[DimPrawn]

I think this thread has been well and truly hijacked.

Anyways, I should have kept the short on WTI OIL open, the price has fallen hard today. Never mind, tulip happens.

Waiting for the S&P to fall, it's hanging there reluctant to do anything today.

[Old Greg]

I think the main difference is that lockdown measures prevent activities, while social distancing measures merely thin ongoing activities. Obviously, social distancing measures are imposed during lockdown too for "allowed" activities, like shopping.

It's going to be interesting to see what activities remain viable. Are airlines viable at, say, 2/3rds capacity? Are pubs viable at, say, half capacity? Many businesses are screwed for the long-term, absent ongoing gov't help (which will probably be offered, at least to some degree).

Is it even possible to enforce social distancing in a half capacity pub? I suspect not. My clinentco canteen is still open with chairs removed to keep them all 2m away from each other. Big yellow signs everywhere advising people etc. Yet still people move chairs around so they can sit 4 or 6 to a table like they used to. And this is in the national HQ of the health service...

I think we're going to see a lot of tweaking of restrictions. Maybe coffee shops and restaurants will open but there will be no alcohol sales and they will have to be closed at 9. Cinemas may open and then close again. All the measures will be treated as levers to keep the spread under control. IMO of course.

[jamesbrown]

I think this thread has been well and truly hijacked.

Anyways, I should have kept the short on WTI OIL open, the price has fallen hard today. Never mind, tulip happens.

Waiting for the S&P to fall, it's hanging there reluctant to do anything today.

Hey, we're talking about the viability of pubs to preempt scootie's contrarian "all-in" on hipster doofus craft beer

[jamesbrown]

Is it even possible to enforce social distancing in a half capacity pub? I suspect not. My clinentco canteen is still open with chairs removed to keep them all 2m away from each other. Big yellow signs everywhere advising people etc. Yet still people move chairs around so they can sit 4 or 6 to a table like they used to. And this is in the national HQ of the health service...

I think we're going to see a lot of tweaking of restrictions. Maybe coffee shops and restaurants will open but there will be no alcohol sales and they will have to be closed at 9. Cinemas may open and then close again. All the measures will be treated as levers to keep the spread under control. IMO of course.

Right, lots of trial and error.

And confusion about what is being trialed and what is being error-ed. If you thought there were mixed messages until now...

And many companies going to the wall even after the formal lockdown has ended.

[BlasterBates]

A good day on the markets, the DAX is up 3 percent. Each percentage point counts.

[scooterscot]

I think this thread has been well and truly hijacked.

Anyways, I should have kept the short on WTI OIL open, the price has fallen hard today. Never mind, tulip happens.

Waiting for the S&P to fall, it's hanging there reluctant to do anything today.

It's only a loss when you make it a loss.