House market - how low will it go?

[scooterscot]

A 'privilege', if that is true, that I have worked to get. I came from a council estate from one of the poorest areas of the country and worked my way to where I am today. Nothing has been given to me (or my wife).

I/we went without holidays for years in order to pay off our mortgage to ensure we would be debt free at a time when we expected her health to get worse and our ability to work to reduce.

And I was just responding to your post to me ..... if you're going to accuse me of something, I have a right to reply.

Am no accusing anyone of anything - not my style.

Likewise, worked from the ground up. Summer job at uni was in the cemetery cutting grass - walked behind that machine 18 miles a day from 8am!

[scooterscot]

No chance of selling, yet he bought another property at the same time.

YEah - am thinking why not rent until like is sorted out...

[d000hg]

We still have a housing shortage (we're told) which presumably protects the market to an extent too.

[Whorty]

err... I seem to be getting constant negative reputation notifications from this Brillo Pad character.

Is there any way I can turn him off?

I find sending him a picture of me, semi-naked, in my wife's underwear, generally turns him off To be fair, it turns most people off .... feel free to give it a go

[rogerfederer]

We still have a housing shortage (we're told) which presumably protects the market to an extent too.

My understanding of the stats is they include children aged 25 and over staying at home. However the issue there isn't lack of housing but affordability. The market has been artificially pushed up and propped up for over a decade.

Keep in mind more people are separated, divorced, prefer to live alone and all the rest, but these are older and are stretching their financial affordability in order to live alone or without two adults in the houeshold, thus using up housing stock. I don't think the solution is necessarily lots of one or two bed tiny overpriced new build prices across the country.

[DodgyAccountant]

We still have a housing shortage (we're told) which presumably protects the market to an extent too.

Don't agree. Look at Japenese housing market.



House Price to earnings ratio returns to mean - often with overshooot on down side.



House prices are driven by credit and demographics.

[d000hg]

Isn't Japan a particularly weird case though, the San Francisco of the time for housing markets?
At the moment there's a HUGE amount of credit to be had. I assume you got your £5m 0% loan

Not seen you for ages BTW DA, hope you're well.

[ladymuck]

I find sending him a picture of me, semi-naked, in my wife's underwear, generally turns him off To be fair, it turns most people off .... feel free to give it a go

I don't have a picture of you to send him...

[rogerfederer]

Isn't Japan a particularly weird case though, the San Francisco of the time for housing markets?
At the moment there's a HUGE amount of credit to be had. I assume you got your £5m 0% loan

Not seen you for ages BTW DA, hope you're well.

A few years old, but completely worth watching in full, Richard Koo of Nomura, whom I like due to his frankness:

YouTube

Explains the Japanification of US and UK economies.

[DodgyAccountant]

Not seen you for ages BTW DA, hope you're well.

Hi Mr d000hg

Thank you for asking.

All reasonable (under the circumstances).

I was expecting markets to crash due to debt levels etc but didn't anticipate CV19.

Might have to go to plan B - accounting (the horror) - been in Fund Management for last 10 years but their income is dependent on AUM and I expect a 2/3 year bear market (maybe down to 20% of peak cf 1929).

Best regards

DA

P.S. have a bit of time on my hands and have discovered a room in the house called a "kitchen". Strange times.

P.P.S. Mrs DA (version 3.0 - (fairly) stable release - no major upgrades expected) has proven mostly harmless and occasionally useful