456 Positive Covid-19 in UK as of 11th March

[original PM]

Prediction is 43 million infected, 1.46 million dead (at the current rate of 3.4%)
We'll hit the limit on infections in about another 4 weeks, although if extra hygiene measures are in place, that might reduce the limit to around 30 million, and in 16 weeks time, with deaths reduced to under 1 million

So there is about 600,000 deaths per year in the UK - are you saying that this year there will be 3 times as many deaths?

Just asking for a friend like...

[cojak]

Well I've booked my bargain skiing holiday, now to get on the plane before everything shuts down...

[ladymuck]

Why is Haslemere pointed out?

[CheeseSlice]

Prediction is 43 million infected, 1.46 million dead (at the current rate of 3.4%)
We'll hit the limit on infections in about another 4 weeks, although if extra hygiene measures are in place, that might reduce the limit to around 30 million, and in 16 weeks time, with deaths reduced to under 1 million

Are you sure this wasn't stolen from the BBC 4 Documentary : BBC Pandemic ?
They simulated a 'digital' pandemic flu outbreak using a mobile phone app and thousands of volunteers. Patient zero was unleashed into the population in none other than 'Haslemere' and they set the virus parameters to be very very aggressive.
A couple of years old now but still on iPlayer and very interesting to watch. Particularly the effect of hand washing..
BBC Four - Contagion: The BBC Four Pandemic

And...the scary coincidence is that Haslemere was also the location of the first human-to-human transmission of Coronavirus in the UK.
One for the tin foil hat conspiracy theorist gang..

[WTFH]

So there is about 600,000 deaths per year in the UK - are you saying that this year there will be 3 times as many deaths?

Just asking for a friend like...

The model, based on UK data and testing in 2017/18, is predicting that at the current rate of 3.4% (WHO figures), then the figure mentioned in my earlier post is the increase in deaths.
Higher likelihood if you're male, and also by age group.
There is one anomaly that could mean these figures are under, and that's a spike in the >80 age group. Normal modelling would expect that to be around 14-15%, the figure to last week was close to 21%.

I realise that some people reject science and maths as all lies when it comes to global issues, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 6 months.

[minestrone]

We should be banging a 500 quid tax on entering the country and stopping all public gatherings.

This should have been done weeks ago. By all countries.

[cojak]

We should be banging a 500 quid tax on entering the country and stopping all public gatherings.

This should have been done weeks ago. By all countries.

But only after I come back from me hols...

[ladymuck]

But only after I come back from me hols...

Same here. Got a weekend away coming up next week.

[WTFH]

Are you sure this wasn't stolen from the BBC 4 Documentary : BBC Pandemic

No, it wasn't stolen from there. It was stolen from the updated, peer-reviewed publication that came out following the show.

[minestrone]

No, it wasn't stolen from there. It was stolen from the updated, peer-reviewed publication that came out following the show.

On a virus strain that wouldn't be discovered for 2 years?

I'm not sure you really know what you are talking about here.