stock market crash

[DealorNoDeal]

So basically what I’m saying is TA is ok for lazy kids who want a computer to do everything for them, but Stochastics whatever fail for a massive reason, and that’s because they don’t take into factor the potential of a company, and that’s why proper Analysts like the one’s at Baillie Gifford bought(spoiler) Amazon in 2005 for $30-$40, and hold it still at $3,268.

If you look at a chart, of Amazon, it would have been overbought countless times between 2005 and now.

If you had used TA and bought when it was oversold, and sold when it was overbought, I bet you would have massively underperformed just buying and holding the stock for 15 years.

It took me a long time to realise that beating the market is much, much harder than it looks.

[AtW]

It’s easy if you are Pooper Scooper

[scooterscot]

Lets try again.

Overbought. A graph tells me something is “overbought”.

Apart from 3 greens lines on a graph, what do you think overbought means? Well I think it means that the share price is too high for the intrinsic value of the company.

How is it measured. Chartists use Stochastics, usually against the RSI. For the stock in question my “free app” tells me for StochRSI(14) its a “sell”. Also tells me for Stoch(9,6) is a “Buy”. In fact the technicals overall say a “buy”.

Now non TA measurements such as P/E Ratio can be used to rate a stock. So this stock is around 40 which is high, but in its industry not terrible as codemasters for example is higher.

There was a company who once had a P/E ratio of 3732.43 which is just absolutely crazy, and you know what, yes TA had it overbought, and overbought, and overbought. Anyway, who would be crazy enough to buy that crap, and never heard of them again..ermm started with an A. Like the name of a river or something.

So basically what I’m saying is TA is ok for lazy kids who want a computer to do everything for them, but Stochastics whatever fail for a massive reason, and that’s because they don’t take into factor the potential of a company, and that’s why proper Analysts like the one’s at Baillie Gifford bought(spoiler) Amazon in 2005 for $30-$40, and hold it still at $3,268.

So back to a uk gaming company. I have absolutely no idea if its going to go up a lot, but it’s certainly not going to go to bust as you suggested.

Expanding gaming market, accelerated by covid lockdown, which is continuing by the way. Growing by acquisition, moving into the US sector, new PS4, xbox consoles coming out soon, mobile gaming on the increase, AI gaining strength, top Chinese company owns 10%..etc

..and best of all. They have just opened an office in Warrington, so I’m supporting a local North West business. 2%..lol..I don’t care what happens too much, but wish them well.

So, you with your 3-6 trades a year can stick with your Training Material Sales and High Street Banks, they probably are oversold, but who cares. You’ll never make any decent money because only a fool would put a massive chunk of their portolfio into anything without fundamentals backing it up.

Proper investing..not TA. You should try it.

Enjoyed reading that -


1) Stochastic RSI is a meaningless value without defining the scale, 1-day, 1-week, 1-minute. If your app is calculating on a daily chart (or less) for a stock then it is equivalent to a playing high stakes poker.

2) 40 P/E Ratio - Good gwd man - this is not an investment, you are speculating. Pure emotion. Speculating that the future success of a company will generate 40 times current earnings when everyone is tightening their belts. Seriously, let that sink in for a moment. High P/E ratios are a sell signal. Look left when P/E's have been high in the past, has it ever worked out? In fact, during the dot.com bubble many many internet companies had sky high P/E ratios.. Netscape, Lycos, pets.com etc with people all speculating on the future success of those business - it was insane.

3) TA is not easy. Overcoming bias takes time. If I'm looking at a single bias I know my analysis is flawed from the outset. I must look both ways before crossing the road. TA is easy? No chance. If I make it seem that way in a post.. that is then a misconception. Many many hours of study go into my ideas. Why? Because I'm uncomfortable playing with large chunks of money giving where I started in life. Yes the Put was a mistake, live n learn, take notes.

4) "I've no idea if it is going to go up a lot" - You should do. Guessing is not an investment strategy. I never said it was going to go bust, I said it was very overbought.


Regarding gaming, consider Enjin for your 2% - gaming is being monetised rapidly just perhaps not in the way we knew growing up.

Enjin | Blockchain Product Ecosystem

"Since its founding in 2009, Enjin has been deeply involved with the gaming industry. The same year, the company launched a gaming community platform called the Enjin Network and has, according to the team, grown it to more than 20 million users over the course of a decade."

[scooterscot]

If you look at a chart, of Amazon, it would have been overbought countless times between 2005 and now.

If you had used TA and bought when it was oversold, and sold when it was overbought, I bet you would have massively underperformed just buying and holding the stock for 15 years.

It took me a long time to realise that beating the market is much, much harder than it looks.

Ignore daily charts, I suspect you were using them for the overbought signals. Crypto is different, stocks monthly, maybe weekly for rotations.


I count the overbought condition 4 times on the monthly over the last 20 years (never go long/short into stocks with anything less than a monthly chart). And with support on the 21-week (yellow line) confirmed you could have bought back in if you like. And just once on my quarterly chart (bottom).

[AtW]

“ I count the overbought condition 4 times ”

Timing the market, eh?

[scooterscot]

Timing the market, one month at a time. You could set your watch by it.

[BABABlackSheep]

Timing the market, one month at a time. You could set your watch by it.

Looking forward to your Pearson trade.

Oh, its just been downgraded by Barclays, but hey that doesn’t matter right? TA and all that?

Pearson PLC not good value as new CEO will have big turnaround job, says Barclays

[scooterscot]

That is typical at the bottom of a market cycle 'bad news', 'doom', etc at capitulation and at the top 'New paradigm', 'Everyone will drive a Tesla other car companies are not obsolete' etc

I've lost count the number of times.


I'll like the story to the chart - it'll be super interesting.


Ha! Just noticed something on the chart, the last candle printed on the weekly, do you know what it is? This news story above is going to age like milk.

[AtW]

You’ve lost something that rhymes with bubbles

[scooterscot]

Troubles? Yes, I think you're right.