stock market crash

[NotAllThere]

Buy & hold has worked well over the past four decades. Even where there have been crashes and bear markets, the market has recovered within a few years.

However, it's not always been like that.

After 1929, the Dow took 30 years to make a new ATH.

The same happened again in 1965; it took another 30 years to make a new ATH.

Dow Jones - 100 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends

So what? Banks collapse, hyperinflation sometimes sets in, burglars nick the gold bars stored under your mattress, governments confiscate your assets and bang you up in a gulag for 15 years...

Pick a start date. Run a simulation running through every start date beginning 1.1.1915, ending 31.12.2009 , buying £1000 of shares every month. Then calculate the probability of being at an overall loss after 10, 15, 20, 25 years (adjust end date to suit). Then compare with the returns from bonds, bank accounts, housing.

[stonehenge]

So what? Banks collapse, hyperinflation sometimes sets in, burglars nick the gold bars stored under your mattress, governments confiscate your assets and bang you up in a gulag for 15 years...

Pick a start date. Run a simulation running through every start date beginning 1.1.1915, ending 31.12.2009 , buying £1000 of shares every month. Then calculate the probability of being at an overall loss after 10, 15, 20, 25 years (adjust end date to suit). Then compare with the returns from bonds, bank accounts, housing.

Past performance, even over 100 years, is not a guarantee of future performance.

Seriously though, buying £1000 of shares every month is highly unlikely to be a losing strategy over the long term. I wish I'd done that throughout my working life.

[NotAllThere]

The stock market is, except in the short term, a non-zero sum game because the world is generally getting richer. That means long term you're unlikely to lose money in real terms.

[stonehenge]

The stock market is, except in the short term, a non-zero sum game because the world is generally getting richer. That means long term you're unlikely to lose money in real terms.

Agreed, but in these wacky times of ZIRP and QE it's not a bad idea to hedge your bets with other asset classes as well.

The Permanent Portfolio

[NotAllThere]

Agreed, but in these wacky times of ZIRP and QE it's not a bad idea to hedge your bets with other asset classes as well.

The Permanent Portfolio

Of course.

[scooterscot]

Definitely the moment to diversify. Youtube is filled with folks saying now is the time to hold onto cash. Bonkers. We're on the verge of a money printing problem like the world has never seen before. Protect your wealth.

[TheGreenBastard]

I get all my investment advice from YouTube.

[scooterscot]

Lyft losses grow ahead of $25bn flotation

Utter madness. Compare this IPO when facebook launched, generating $400m in profit, what am I taking about... you can't compare them.

Companies like Lyft not making a profit yet with multi billion dollar valuations are mad. Yet investors will throw money at them. This could be the trigger. Who knows.

Noticed Tim Cook sold nearly $60m of Apple shares recently on the quiet. Not a single news article I can find either on the matter. If elite are jumping ship...

Lyft, the ride-hailing company, has revealed that it is yet to make a profit ahead of an initial public offering (IPO) which could value the firm at between $20bn and $25bn.


The company is racing its larger ride-sharing rival Uber to list its stock.


In its prospectus, Lyft published detailed financials for the first time, showing that while revenue rose to $2.2bn in 2018, losses grew to $911.3m.

Lyft losses grow ahead of $25bn flotation - BBC News

[AtW]

“Tim Cook, Chief Executive Officer
Tim Cook is the current chief executive officer (CEO) of Apple and the second-largest individual shareholder with 878,425 shares as of Aug. 24, 2018. Prior to being named CEO, Cook served as Apple’s chief operating officer, responsible for the company's international sales and operations. Before joining in Apple in 1998, Cook worked for computer distributor Compaq as the company's Vice President for Corporate Materials.”

Who Are the Largest Shareholders of Apple? (AAPL)

[TheGreenBastard]

Companies like Lyft not making a profit yet with multi billion dollar valuations are mad. Yet investors will throw money at them. This could be the trigger. Who knows.

I hope you realise this mirrors the "potential" of cryptocurrencies, that as of yet have delivered little. All your own personal brain-farts in the crypto thread are projections against future crypto proliferation; which is directly comparable to investors in Lyft and their speculation that someday it will be a money making machine.