stock market crash

[BrilloPad]

Good grief... could BP be on the brink? How on earth are they carrying so much debt?

It was the divorces that did it.....

[scooterscot]

Brown trousers time... Just made a large bet on Ethereum - going up!

$10k on derivative that pays out 3x for every 1% Ether goes up. Of course if it goes down....

[Whorty]

So you think that the price of stock markets will be lower than today or higher than today, given in a few weeks likely millions will be infected, countries closed, everyone quarantined in their homes, every shop and factory closed and food rationing?

Have a think, and let me know your feelings on the price today compared with next month.

If I 'knew' I'd be a multi-millionaire. What I'm gambling on is that when I need to cash in the investments they will be higher than when I purchased them. As this is spare cash, and I've no need to cash it in in the short term, it doesn't really make much difference whether I buy today, next Wednesday, or 29 days time. I won't be cashing in for 5+ years at least.

So the questions are ....

1) do I KNOW when the bottom of the market will happen? And the answer is no. None of us do.
2) Do I think that the market is lower when I buy to when I need to cash in? Well, yes, else I wouldn't be buying now. I can wait 5+ years .... it's only those who are forced to sell that are at risk
3) Do I know the market will drop much further? No, none of us KNOW this, although we all suspect it. But how low? Another 5%, 10%, 50% .... if we KNEW we'd all be rich.

I just love how you're all experts online, and KNOW what's going to happen, and yet none of you have made a killing on investing I guess we're all experts in hindsight

Wasn't it warren Buffet who said buy when the markets are dropping and when other investors are fearful and dropping out? He also said buy for the long term. My wife and I have always followed this strategy and whilst we've never bought right at the bottom, or sold right at the top, we've always done pretty well

Each to their own though. Pick a strategy and fill ya boots

[scooterscot]

If I 'knew' I'd be a multi-millionaire. What I'm gambling on is that when I need to cash in the investments they will be higher than when I purchased them. As this is spare cash, and I've no need to cash it in in the short term, it doesn't really make much difference whether I buy today, next Wednesday, or 29 days time. I won't be cashing in for 5+ years at least.

And what if this market only goes down for the next 10 years?

It's only gone up in a straight line for the last 12, it can easily do the same in reserve.

[Whorty]

And what if this market only goes down for the next 10 years?

It's only gone up in a straight line for the last 12, it can easily do the same in reserve.

True, but then it's my tough titty. If you KNEW 12 years ago that the market was only going up you'd have bought then, and sold at the top. But we only know this stuff in hindsight - we're all experts on what has happened in the past

If I KNEW the market was going to drop for the next 5, 10, 12 years then I'd bet that way on the market, but of course, no one knows this. We can all draw a graph, and make predictions, but that's all they are.

That's why people should only invest in asset classes that can go up and down if they can afford to lose their capital. If people want to protect their capital (kind of) then stick to cash.

I can hold for 10 years. I'm only 50, I won't need this cash for another 20-25 years, so time is on my side. Like I said before, only those forced to sell are at risk; if you can hold for the long term then your risk of loses is reduced.

BTW, I'm not suggested others follow what I do. I'm simply stating my plan; others can ignore, scoff, follow or whatever. Pick your poison based on your own risk profile.

[GhostofTarbera]

Brown trousers time... Just made a large bet on Ethereum - going up!

$10k on derivative that pays out 3x for every 1% Ether goes up. Of course if it goes down....

Falling like a stone


Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum

[Whorty]

Worth saying, this isn't the first time we've done this We dropped cash into funds in 2002 when the stock market started dropping following the fall out from the Twin Towers attack, we did it again during the Financial crisis in 2008. We held all those until early 2015 when we cashed them all in and have been sitting in Bonds and cash since.

We neither bought at the rock bottom, or sold at the very top, but we've always bought lower than we sell. It might go against logic to buy when the markets are dropping, and sell when they're rising .... but, as I paraphrased earlier, this seems to work ok for Buffet, and you know, he's done pretty well out of it

As always though, only invest what you can afford to lose. Just in case there is a black swan waiting to flap it's wings and break your arm

[Whorty]

Brown trousers time... Just made a large bet on Ethereum - going up!

$10k on derivative that pays out 3x for every 1% Ether goes up. Of course if it goes down....

Currently 0.6% down

[ZARDOZ]

So you think that the price of stock markets will be lower than today or higher than today, given in a few weeks likely millions will be infected, countries closed, everyone quarantined in their homes, every shop and factory closed and food rationing?

Have a think, and let me know your feelings on the price today compared with next month.

It could be a massacre. The Dow is still 50% higher than 2016. The FTSE isn't, yet it will follow the Dow down. Sub 5000 must be a certainty.

US are a couple weeks behind us, if our COVID peak is mid April, they could be May, and the US always does everything bigger including panic!

[ChimpMaster]

Currently 0.6% down

ETH is down around 10% since SS placed his bet an hour or so ago.

And that's the unleveraged movement.

I feel your pain SS.