stock market crash

[northernladuk]

The clue is in my post. Did I mention TA?

You’ve linked news stories on bad events and shown how the price rose following the event, and then somehow linked it to tech stocks which have lots of positive news being due a fall, and sprouted this as being a contrarian approach.

Contrarian investing is a con anyway. What they actually do is look at shares which are out of favour, but are sound businesses, likely to recover. That’s called “fundamentals”.

Why are you wasting space on the internet by engaging with him?

[BABABlackSheep]

Why are you wasting space on the internet by engaging with him?

He’s fuelling discussion on something I’m interested in.

I’m more interested in other people’s opinions, but everyone seems to focus on Scooter.

Fair point though, we are just all repeating ourselves now.

[scooterscot]

Contrarian investing is a con anyway. What they actually do is look at shares which are out of favour, but are sound businesses, likely to recover. That’s called “fundamentals”.

Not at all.

You've got to change that thinking before investing a penny. With every new business cycle new ideas make way for the canny to enrich themselves. Those chasing oversold stocks belonging to the old business cycles hoping for recovery... it does not end well. Internet is full of folks chasing oversold cruise line stock (even though ships are been broken up!), or airline stocks - I cringe, I really do. All the while you've got the most undervalued asset class whilst being at the same time most important hedge against financial fraud, blockchain tech.

Ray Dalio, read up in fact listen to some of his Youtube clips - if you're serious about making money from this, invest some of your time, listen. He talks about business cycles a lot.

Imagine investing in horse & cart shares following oversold conditions when Henry Ford was unveiling his Model T. Or investing in Typewriter manufacturers after a sale off when the first word processors came about.

My mentor was 100% 'be the contrarian'. If you think like the heard, you're destined to spend the rest of your life in the 9 to 5.

[Whorty]

He’s fuelling discussion on something I’m interested in.

I’m more interested in other people’s opinions, but everyone seems to focus on Scooter.

Fair point though, we are just all repeating ourselves now.

Same here. I have far too much time on my hands and I've learned a lot about investing from many (not Scooter!) on this thread. Every day is a school day

[Whorty]

Not at all.

You've got to change that thinking before investing a penny. With every new business cycle new ideas make way for the canny to enrich themselves. Those chasing oversold stocks belonging to the old business cycles hoping for recovery... it does not end well. Internet is full of folks chasing oversold cruise line stock (even though ships are been broken up!), or airline stocks - I cringe, I really do. All the while you've got the most undervalued asset class whilst being at the same time most important hedge against financial fraud, blockchain tech.

Ray Dalio, read up in fact listen to some of his Youtube clips - if you're serious about making money from this, invest some of your time, listen. He talks about business cycles a lot.

Imagine investing in horse & cart shares following oversold conditions when Henry Ford was unveiling his Model T. Or investing in Typewriter manufacturers after a sale off when the first word processors came about.

My mentor was 100% 'be the contrarian'. If you think like the heard, you're destined to spend the rest of your life in the 9 to 5.

Your logic is flawed - have a read of Porter's 5 Forces and let us know why

[_V_]

In this graph you have chosen to use two points only ... you could have just as easily used points from earlier in the graph, resulting in a steeper upwards direction of line thus predicting a different position. Your bias allowed you to only use the 2001 and 2009 points to show what you wanted to see.

And since spacetime is curved, shouldn't the line also be curved?

[Old Greg]

In this graph you have chosen to use two points only ... you could have just as easily used points from earlier in the graph, resulting in a steeper upwards direction of line thus predicting a different position. Your bias allowed you to only use the 2001 and 2009 points to show what you wanted to see.

I get you don't think you're adding bias, I mean, why would you? It's quite possible it's unconscious bias and you don't even realise you're doing it.

If the FTSE never reaches 4500, or at least not in the next 12 months, so you're then 36 months predicting something that hasn't happened, where will this leave you? Will you open a new narrative with a new 'low' for FTSE, or will you look at your technique and admit you're wrong? How many months do you have to go before you accept that you're wrong?

We've seen this before when he's posted graphs incorrectly stating that he started this thread when FTSE 100 was higher than its actual level at the time. Funny that he doesn't get the error wrong the other way. He then makes claims of pedantry and goes quiet. Typical bulltulipter - he can't engage honestly with the facts, so who is going to take notice of his views? Facts are always the starting point.

[BABABlackSheep]

Not at all.

You've got to change that thinking before investing a penny. With every new business cycle new ideas make way for the canny to enrich themselves. Those chasing oversold stocks belonging to the old business cycles hoping for recovery... it does not end well. Internet is full of folks chasing oversold cruise line stock (even though ships are been broken up!), or airline stocks - I cringe, I really do. All the while you've got the most undervalued asset class whilst being at the same time most important hedge against financial fraud, blockchain tech.

Ray Dalio, read up in fact listen to some of his Youtube clips - if you're serious about making money from this, invest some of your time, listen. He talks about business cycles a lot.

Imagine investing in horse & cart shares following oversold conditions when Henry Ford was unveiling his Model T. Or investing in Typewriter manufacturers after a sale off when the first word processors came about.

My mentor was 100% 'be the contrarian'. If you think like the heard, you're destined to spend the rest of your life in the 9 to 5.

Contrarian is another word for going against the herd mentality. Contrarian investors looks at the intrinsic value of a company and factor in market sentiment to see where there is a difference.

Now that’s all well and good, and easy..eh. Take Tesla, massively overvalued based on intrinsic value...contrarian, right..lets short it. When? When it was up 100%? 200%..400% this year.

Same happened years ago with Amazon, with Google and on and on.

Your contrarian examples were pants to be honest, can’t be bothered replying on them.

[Old Greg]

Contrarian is another word for going against the herd mentality. Contrarian investors looks at the intrinsic value of a company and factor in market sentiment to see where there is a difference.

Now that’s all well and good, and easy..eh. Take Tesla, massively overvalued based on intrinsic value...contrarian, right..lets short it. When? When it was up 100%? 200%..400% this year.

Same happened years ago with Amazon, with Google and on and on.

Your contrarian examples were pants to be honest, can’t be bothered replying on them.

He also takes contrarian positions to strawmen he posits. E.g. everyone says there is going to be inflation - boy will they be surprised when deflation hits. I see more people talking about deflation that inflation.

[northernladuk]

He’s fuelling discussion on something I’m interested in.

I’m more interested in other people’s opinions, but everyone seems to focus on Scooter.

Because he just pollutes the thread with absolute garbage to the point no one takes it seriously anymore. If he'd shut up and let other people have a say without lording it over them with graphs and commentry which has been proven to be wrong time and time again then things might change...but they won't.