stock market crash

[_V_]

Soooo you put £10k into Centrica to make £5k and crowed about that, but not when you 'make' $420k? Of course you did.

Probably made on a demo account with a trading broker.

[jamesbrown]

Those are oscillators I'm using, not variables. What university was it you graduated from?

You above all people should know probabilisitic analysis is a stochastic process independent of deterministic variables subject to constant change.

Probabilistic analysis isn't a stochastic process, dumb arse. Probabilistic analysis is analysing something within the framework of probability theory. A stochastic process has nothing to do with analysis, dumb arse. Stochastic processes may be composed of random and deterministic components, dumb arse. Change and randomness are two different things, dumb arse.

If you really had the masters degree that you claim, you obviously went to an utterly crap university and probably didn't graduate.

[DealorNoDeal]

So, come on, give us the dates on your bet. You're told us the bet is for FTSE to drop to 4500. When does this have to be called by? Very simple question. Can't answer this? Your bet is as fake as your graphs.

Based on a few things he's said, my guess is end of October.

If FTSE drops to 4500, he'll get the $250k back + profit.

If FTSE stays above 5500, I suspect he'll lose the entire $250k.

[Whorty]

Probabilistic analysis isn't a stochastic process, dumb arse. Probabilistic analysis is analysing something within the framework of probability theory. A stochastic process has nothing to do with analysis, dumb arse. Stochastic processes may be composed of random and deterministic components, dumb arse. Change and randomness are two different things, dumb arse.

If you really had the masters degree that you claim, you obviously went to an utterly crap university and probably didn't graduate.

[Whorty]

Based on a few things he's said, my guess is end of October.

If FTSE drops to 4500, he'll get the $250k back + profit.

If FTSE stays above 5500, I suspect he'll lose the entire $250k.

Strange date to choose - it's pre US election, pre Brexit cliff fall, pre possible peak of CV19, likely pre CV19 vaccine news. Markets change drastically usually due to external factors. Can see the market drifting around the 6k mark until something external and significant happens, until then the sensible money will profit take and drip back in to keep the balance ticking over but no one knows where the market is heading so only the arrogant or stupid will be making big bets

[DealorNoDeal]

Strange date to choose - it's pre US election, pre Brexit cliff fall, pre possible peak of CV19, likely pre CV19 vaccine news. Markets change drastically usually due to external factors. Can see the market drifting around the 6k mark until something external and significant happens, until then the sensible money will profit take and drip back in to keep the balance ticking over but no one knows where the market is heading so only the arrogant or stupid will be making big bets

You can get longer-dated options but you pay a higher premium.

[scooterscot]

Soooo you put £10k into Centrica to make £5k and crowed about that, but not when you 'make' $420k? Of course you did.

I think it was around $25k into centrica in the end, dollar cost averaged in - remember?

But this is why I don't bother with the stock market, the crypto space has far more possibilities.

[scooterscot]

Probably made on a demo account with a trading broker.

Exactly - that's what it woz.

[Andy2]

Based on a few things he's said, my guess is end of October.

If FTSE drops to 4500, he'll get the $250k back + profit.

If FTSE stays above 5500, I suspect he'll lose the entire $250k.

Ouch

[scooterscot]

Probabilistic analysis isn't a stochastic process, dumb arse. Probabilistic analysis is analysing something within the framework of probability theory. A stochastic process has nothing to do with analysis, dumb arse. Stochastic processes may be composed of random and deterministic components, dumb arse. Change and randomness are two different things, dumb arse.

If you really had the masters degree that you claim, you obviously went to an utterly crap university and probably didn't graduate.

Oh dear.

Is there any probabilistic analysis you can name that is not an analysis of a stochastic process? Throwing a dice for example - how would you describe the results of this process without probability theory?