stock market crash

[DimPrawn]

[QUOTE=scooterscot;2790463]The 21-week moving average (yellow line) is 99% certain going to cut through the 200-week (red line) before the end of the month. The angle it is approaching is fast & steep, this is going to be an easy 30% off the market.


Meaningless mumbo jumbo.

The past is not a guide to the future, that kind of child like analysis has been proved meaningless in countless studies. It sometimes predicts a crash and also predicts countless other "crashes" that never happen. Every time you bet on one of these crashes you lose money.

[scooterscot]

I am betting on it, rather, carefully consider analysis - not mumbo jumbo.

What happen in the past is no guarantee for the future - very true. Yet part of me can't help and look at the world today, seeing where all this hate, populism, & protectionism led us to in the past. It is not something to aspire to, history tells us that yet we ignore it.

The charts are no different - Look left, look in the past - take a scientific approach. These charts are telling you what people were thinking at the time. Almost best to ignore price action.

[DimPrawn]

Here's a simpler way on betting on a crash than options, just buy this inverse S&P 500 ETF.

Note how, apart from the rare spikes where you can make a good profit, the bulk of the time you slowly lose money.

Interactive share charts for Xtrackers (XSPS) S&P 500 Inverse Daily UCITS ETF

[DimPrawn]

Here's a simpler way on betting on a crash than options, just buy this inverse S&P 500 ETF.

Note how, apart from the rare spikes where you can make a good profit, the bulk of the time you slowly lose money.

Interactive share charts for Xtrackers (XSPS) S&P 500 Inverse Daily UCITS ETF

Compare and contrast with positive thinkers, who apart from rare drops, make consistent money over the long term by being a bull and not listening to endless doom.

Vanguard Funds plc Share Price (VUSA) S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD(GBP) | VUSA

Now which is easier, just buy sit back and get rich, or predict exactly and without error, a few major corrections every 10 years?

[scooterscot]

Not always doom. However we have been in constant boom since 2009 with recessions occurring every 8 years. We're well overdue.

Imagine we have market crash before month's end and Brexit is rescinded when the Russian report comes out - that would be fireworks.

[jamesbrown]

Brexit is rescinded when the Russian report comes out - that would be fireworks.

You’re a tremendous cretin, scootie.

[scooterscot]

Because my opinion differs from yours?

[AtW]

Because my opinion differs from yours?

No, because your “opinion” is incredibly dumb

[jamesbrown]

Because my opinion differs from yours?

No, because your opinion reveals a childlike understanding of the world.

[Whorty]

I am betting on it, rather, carefully consider analysis - not mumbo jumbo.

What happen in the past is no guarantee for the future - very true. Yet part of me can't help and look at the world today, seeing where all this hate, populism, & protectionism led us to in the past. It is not something to aspire to, history tells us that yet we ignore it.

The charts are no different - Look left, look in the past - take a scientific approach. These charts are telling you what people were thinking at the time. Almost best to ignore price action.

The irony with your posts is you often refer to black swans, despite the fact that the person who brought this term into modern usage is someone who was a technical analyst whose writings debunk the kind of models that you worship

Couldn't make it up

Looking at your graphs, no one predicted the triggers of those stock market crashes - this is why the stock markets crashed! Whether it be the .com bubble or the bad debt lending and financial crisis. Just like no one predicted the response to the C19 pandemic.

It does worry me that you keep pouring in money on top of paper losses hoping the market goes your way. Step back and think about this for a minute - if the market hasn't gone through the floor following a virtual total world lockdown with accompanying job losses and business closures, what do you think will happen as the world opens up again? The FTSE may not get back to the heady heights of 7+k this year, or next year, but the chances of it dropping below 4K and staying there are very unlikely.

You sound increasingly desperate with your posts .... please be careful mate. Don't believe everything your graphs tell you.