stock market crash

[scooterscot]

That may be true in the UK but certainly doesn't apply elsewhere. New car registrations in China now almost back to pre-pandemic levels, in Germany they're up about 30% in May and in the US new car registrations doubled in comparison to April.

For example China:

In other statistics out of China, they've only had 3000 Covid-19 infections.

You can't trust any data the comes out of China. Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page is a good place to start looking if you're interested in 'actual' non-government data.

[scooterscot]

Both the bull and the bear market arguments seem compelling to me, I honestly don't have a clue which way bonds, stocks and commodities will go over the next 12 months.

Therefore I will mostly sit on the sidelines and then look back with hindsight and say "why the hell didn't I buy that!"

The bond market is a huge bubble.

Cash in crisis is better than gold, imo, and gold is great if you believe inflation is coming but I think we enter a deflation period first cause of job loss cycle, i.e:

Cycle of job losses


1) Unemployment + wages cuts


2) Lower demand for products & services because of lower prices as people have less money


3) Over supply + lower demand


4) Decrease in profits


5) Business closures

[scooterscot]

That's why you "hedge" your bets. I invest half of what I could invest. So if it goes up I win, if it goes down, I wait patiently and put the other half in and win even more. The further it goes down, the faster it rises and the more you make. You need to be both a bull and a bear at the same time.

I'm sure a lot of folks in Japan during the 1990 crash thought the same thing. 30 years later

It is remarkable how similar present day US stock markets compare with pre-Japan crisis, right down to the central bank buying up stocks.

[scooterscot]

Agree. I'm currently in, but not in a big way. Obviously, the main uncertainty is the second wave, especially as we approach the autumn because there does seem to be a seasonal component. Any major news on a successful treatment or vaccine, and I think the markets will melt upwards, otherwise it will be very choppy (read: opportunity). Remember, the markets look way ahead of the real economy and have no problem in taking a massively optimistic view when flush with QE cash - they just need some very slight encouragement to justify it.

Charts are for cretins. They're the crystal ball of investing.

We're no were near producing a widely available vaccine, 18 months at best, 2-years more likely. The US is about to enter a 2nd wave of the virus and reach even higher peaks. At least wait until the furloughing period comes to an end. And as soon as that ends (October?) the UK a couple of months later severs all its trade links. chaos ^2.

Charts are useful because they inform us of what people are thinking, that information is invaluable.

[scooterscot]

My rule of thumb is to have about 60% invested in stocks.

How differently the rich think from the rest of us...

Buffett Sold 19 Stocks in the First Quarter

[BlasterBates]

I'm sure a lot of folks in Japan during the 1990 crash thought the same thing. 30 years later

It is remarkable how similar present day US stock markets compare with pre-Japan crisis, right down to the central bank buying up stocks.

The P/E ratios of US stocks are about half the value of Japanese stocks before the crash in 1991, which means the downside is is much lower than it was in Japan. If the economy continues to recover and if prices simply move sidewards fundamentals will have caught up by the end of the year.

[AtW]

The P/E ratios of US stocks are about half the value of Japanese stocks before the crash in 1991, which means the downside is is much lower than it was in Japan. If the economy continues to recover and if prices simply move sidewards fundamentals will have caught up by the end of the year.

Pooper does not believe in P/E ratios

[AtW]

Sometimes they get dumped in a panic sell off along with all other companies. The good, bad and the ugly all fall, some deservedly so, others not so.

Not very optimistic outlook during panic!

[jamesbrown]

Charts are useful because they inform us of what people are thinking, that information is invaluable.

Charts inform you about the past and what idiots who use charts are thinking about the future.

[BlasterBates]

Pooper does not believe in P/E ratios

If I'm wrong stocks will be down, and I'll buy some more and make even more money.