stock market crash

[Old Greg]

Thank you.

My pleasure.

[scooterscot]

You called a 'crash' 2 years ago that never happened. There has been a global pandemic that has resulted in economies all over the globe closing down for 3 months, and even this hasn't taken the stock market below the value it was at when you called a crash.

Fella, do you see yet why we think you're a deluded fool?

That's me, the big fool for cashing in near a year ago after a 240% increase in my pension portfolio. Now I have to wait before I can go shopping. The foolishness never ends.


I just love the idea that the bubble pops on an overinflated market of 15+ years is the result of a virus that came out of nowhere 6 months ago.

[AtW]

Pooper but you claimed your pension was in tulipcoins?

[scooterscot]

And how he says he doesn't time the market and then shows a chart where he puts an arrow on it to show how clever his is at timing the market.

That's not timing it. That's cashing in when overbought. There's a difference. If it is the true top, that's just luck on my part.

Right now we're in the mania phase - and the greed should be clear to see.

[scooterscot]

Pooper but you claimed your pension was in tulipcoins?

That's where a chunk of the cash went indeed, but not spot. Only ETF's.

Did you already invest in the new world order?

[AtW]

That's not timing it. That's cashing in when overbought. There's a difference. If it is the true top, that's just luck on my part.

Right now we're in the mania phase - and the greed should be clear to see.

So you cashed in at the right time?

[scooterscot]

If you say so.

[AtW]

If you say so.

So you still don’t know?

[rogerfederer]

It will be interesting how this post ages. It's riddled with personal anecdotes and "feelings". If you're somewhat versed in determining stocks with strong fundamentals now is exactly the time a layman can beat the Vanguard trackers, although I do tend to stick to 50% of my holdings in them.

QE / stimulus packages aren't new - weirdly the "this time it will be different" attitude has switched to the bears.

My main point was that the number of newcomers to retail investing are enormous. Some trading platforms have stopped accepting new applications for some products (iWeb). RobinHood are reporting record account creation. Either it's bots or gullible humans parting with their cash.

I think most people are ok with rich people losing cash, but poor people gambling out of desperation, jumping on the hype, won't end well.

I'm still with ScooterScot in that the market is in a crazy state and is due a very significant drop. I follow a number of companies closely and pulled investments in tranches over a year, as a crash was due anyway. Many are, effectively, zombie companies, drowning in debt. Share buybacks and accounting scandals - prevalent even before covid19 - continue to emerge. The last decade was a fake party. Well done if you done well out of it, but there is no solid basis left for the party to continue. Many household names can't realistically take on more debt. Wages have stagnated for at least 15 years. Real terms US household income is between 1996 and 2000 levels.

[Zigenare]

My main point was that the number of newcomers to retail investing are enormous. Some trading platforms have stopped accepting new applications for some products (iWeb). RobinHood are reporting record account creation. Either it's bots or gullible humans parting with their cash.

I think most people are ok with rich people losing cash, but poor people gambling out of desperation, jumping on the hype, won't end well.

I'm still with ScooterScot in that the market is in a crazy state and is due a very significant drop. I follow a number of companies closely and pulled investments in tranches over a year, as a crash was due anyway. Many are, effectively, zombie companies, drowning in debt. Share buybacks and accounting scandals - prevalent even before covid19 - continue to emerge. The last decade was a fake party. Well done if you done well out of it, but there is no solid basis left for the party to continue. Many household names can't realistically take on more debt. Wages have stagnated for at least 15 years. Real terms US household income is between 1996 and 2000 levels.

My story is that I've set aside a small percentage of my inheritance and I'm indulging myself.

That said, I have worked on "FIX" engines in the past and was involved in "Big Bang" so roughly know what I'm looking at. I'll keep going until the fun stops.

I'm more than happy to share my wins and losses on this forum.