Cryptocurrency

[TheGreenBastard]

BitCoin has either no, or very little intrinsic value and I would say that it is impossible for anybody to value it.

Why is it worth $20k? $10k or even $1k? I cannot answer that question, I just don't know how to put a "fair" value on a BitCoin, so therefore I cannot tell whether its over or undersold.

Unlike a "real" asset, a "Share" pays a dividend, a "Bond" pays a coupon", "Fiat Cash" pays interest and you can easily convert it into material goods & services it doesn't look like you can actually do anything useful with a BitCoin accept hope that it goes up in value. And that's not a good strategy.

All investments are driven by sentiment to a certain degree but Bitcoin is driven by entirely by sentiment. What is going to happen to change the direction of travel? At the moment only negative stories are emerging. Bans in countries, fraud, Ponzi schemes and robberies ( how much was stolen from that exchange in Japan? $400m. The worlds biggest bank robbery by a factor of 10! )

All other assets have large government institutions behind them to try and arrest any slide. BitCoin does not.

I just don't see what is going to emerge to stop this current slide in the near term to medium term.


I firmly believe that predicting future prices is a mug's game and that anyone who makes any claims to know whats going to happen in the coming year is deluded. With that statement in mind. My prediction is $4k by the end of February. My prediction will, of course, be wrong. But whether it's too optimistic or pessimistic I don't know.

Not an unreasonable bearish argument, one minor gripe, by your own definition shares aren't as real an asset as you're arguing; take non-voting not-dividend emitting shares. But yeah, people pushing tulipcoins like TRON on this very thread - irrational and sentimental based valuations.

It's quite a contrast with the Lambo posts a while back

[Jog On]

Not an unreasonable bearish argument, one minor gripe, by your own definition shares aren't as real an asset as you're arguing; take non-voting not-dividend emitting shares. But yeah, people pushing tulipcoins like TRON on this very thread - irrational and sentimental based valuations.

It's quite a contrast with the Lambo posts a while back

The Lambos still stand - there is a filling of boots happening as we speak

[stonehenge]

BitCoin has either no, or very little intrinsic value and I would say that it is impossible for anybody to value it.

Why is it worth $20k? $10k or even $1k? I cannot answer that question, I just don't know how to put a "fair" value on a BitCoin, so therefore I cannot tell whether its over or undersold.

That's probably one of the reasons it's so volatile. Price discovery doesn't work as efficiently as other markets which are easier to value.

[Jog On]

That's probably one of the reasons it's so volatile. Price discovery doesn't work as efficiently as other markets which are easier to value.

Doesn't really work in other markets either - the stock market is in a massive bubble - and house prices...

It's all speculation - whether it's bonds, stocks, cryptos or binary options. Crypto's fundamental value is in blockchain technology which is game changing.

[scooterscot]

Any advice based on last year as to when alt coins will start to pick up relative to BTC? What happened to alt coins last year after BTC corrected in January and started to recover?

I recorded my position daily from February until September last year. March until May was when the magic moment. June I should have sold everything, but did not. That was my mistake. Not taking the gains.

I suspect the same thing will happen this year.

[tomtomagain]

by your own definition shares aren't as real an asset as you're arguing; take non-voting not-dividend

I'd say they were. Because a "Share" is a little slither of ownership of a real thing, a company. A company has assets, income, IP and liabilities. Real tangible things.

Of course, some of those companies are completely worthless, and even the ones with tangible assets such as Carrillion can become worthless.

[milanbenes]

I recorded my position daily from February until September last year. March until May was when the magic moment. June I should have sold everything, but did not. That was my mistake. Not taking the gains.

I suspect the same thing will happen this year.

Scoots,

there's an old saying in the stock market

"sell in May and go away"

Milan.

[scooterscot]

'Sell in may, come back another day' -

However if you also see a 1000% gain in any coin you're holding, take it!!! Don't fall for the 'new paradigm' malarkey. If it's an alt-coin, put it into BTC.

[SunnyInHades]

'Sell in may, come back another day'

Traditionally "Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St. Leger Day"
Royal Ascot, Wimbledon, Henley Royal Regatta, Cowes Week and St. Leger to attend as part of the English Summer social season, ideally with a debutante on each arm.

A different type of crowd in 24/7/365 crypto trading:

[scooterscot]

it's been a bloodbath in $ terms those past 48 hrs yet somehow my BTC total has grow by another 16 BTC's -