UK 'not legally obliged' to pay Brexit exit bill, say peers

[BlasterBates]

The headlong rush into an era of UK protectionism is quite fascinating as we haven't seen anything like this since the 1930's. It will be interesting to see whether the UK will be more successful than Guernsey with its now permanent economic stagnation and rising debt.

[tomtomagain]

Britain is not Ireland's most lucrative EU trading partner - Belgium is

Well if you read that article you'll see that the US is Irelands most important export market. UK is second ( a lot of the stuff that goes to Belgium goes on to other destinations ).

The statistics show that while Ireland exported €13.7 billion worth of goods to Britain in 2015, exports to Belgium topped €14.5 billion.
A proportion of this is shipped on from Belgian ports to other markets

But I am not going to argue about the numbers. My point was that the pain is not evenly spread across the EU. It will disproportionately affect some countries more than others. So whilst pre-negotiation the EU is "united" will it remain united if some countries are taking a bigger hit than others? Will the Irish sign off on a deal that puts a load of their farmers out of work?

[AtW]

The headlong rush into an era of UK protectionism is quite fascinating as we haven't seen anything like this since the 1930's. It will be interesting to see whether the UK will be more successful than Puerto Rico with its now permanent economic stagnation and rising debt.

FTFY

[northernladyuk]

Well if you read that article you'll see that the US is Irelands most important export market. UK is second ( a lot of the stuff that goes to Belgium goes on to other destinations ).



But I am not going to argue about the numbers. My point was that the pain is not evenly spread across the EU. It will disproportionately affect some countries more than others. So whilst pre-negotiation the EU is "united" will it remain united if some countries are taking a bigger hit than others? Will the Irish sign off on a deal that puts a load of their farmers out of work?

Significantly <60% then.

Ireland is indeed going to be hit. However, the EU can sweeten things for a small country with <1% of its total population. Alternatively if Ireland doesn't sign off and there is no deal, guess what?

[BlasterBates]

Well if you read that article you'll see that the US is Irelands most important export market. UK is second ( a lot of the stuff that goes to Belgium goes on to other destinations ).



But I am not going to argue about the numbers. My point was that the pain is not evenly spread across the EU. It will disproportionately affect some countries more than others. So whilst pre-negotiation the EU is "united" will it remain united if some countries are taking a bigger hit than others? Will the Irish sign off on a deal that puts a load of their farmers out of work?

Ireland will have a choice between whatever deal will be on the table or no deal at all, which will be worse for their farmers, so it won't really be able to influence the negotiations very much.

[chopper]

It won't be Lords who'll decide it, EU court will.

But once we're not a member of the EU, then we wouldn't be bound by the ECJ.

Even if UK exits without fees then they would be added as extra tariff to compensate EU

This would be the 'bad deal' which means we walk away on WTO terms. The EU cannot impose UK specific punitive tariffs. Under WTO rules, the tariffs have to be the same for imports from the UK as from anywhere else under WTO rules.

All irrelevant though. There will be a deal. The UK will continue to pay the EU as a reasonable contribution to instritutions we continue to use (e.g. EASA and many other), we will continue to trade goods freely and fairly and on a non-tarif basis (but it wont be called the Single Market - politicians know how to be political). There will be some token gesture limitations on free movement which will have no effect in practice. And Brexit will be made to look like it is worse than not being a full member of the EU. But which will have very limited effect in practice.

It would be far easier if Mayhem just said "so we'll just become EFTA members then, and continue to be in the EEA". The final deal will look quite a bit like that, but it wont be that.

There will be a lot of hot air spouted, but it is all just politics.

[AtW]

But once we're not a member of the EU, then we wouldn't be bound by the ECJ.

Yes, but remaining EU members will be bound by it and everybody will be happy to add extra tariff to UK exports into EU to pay for the court judgement, why would anybody inside EU be against?

There won't be any deal because May is incompetent at negotiations with very experienced side that holds all the cards.

we will continue to trade goods freely and fairly and on a non-tarif basis (but it wont be called the Single Market - politicians know how to be political)

Says who? EU says Single Market benefits are only for full Single Market participants, they can't and they won't allow exiting members to enjoy most of benefits with the least of cost.

[GB9]

So tell me please exactly how you'll copying multiple parts from Japan/Germany used in cars made in UK, where you going to get R&D to get skills/tech needed to produce them?

It will be much easier and profitable for owners to move final assembly to EU instead.

So move all production abroad? And then have tariffs added to your final product? Remember, eu products are already less competitive due to the currency depreciation. Add an extra 10 or 15% on and see your sales drop.

And also remember, any tariff the EU puts on us, we will most likely meet. And if there's a particular country we want to targer, we will be able to do so.

[tomtomagain]

Significantly <60% then.

Ireland is indeed going to be hit. However, the EU can sweeten things for a small country with <1% of its total population. Alternatively if Ireland doesn't sign off and there is no deal, guess what?

Well then we exit with no deal on to WTO. That much is obvious

With no exit payment required. And everyone takes a lot of pain. The UK contributes 12% of the EU budget after all.

Interestingly Irelands largest market is the US .... with which there is no free-trade deal either. So maybe this access to the single market is not all it's cracked up to be.


* * PS : It was Irish Mushroom Farmers who are heavily dependent on the UK.

[BlasterBates]

But once we're not a member of the EU, then we wouldn't be bound by the ECJ.


This would be the 'bad deal' which means we walk away on WTO terms. The EU cannot impose UK specific punitive tariffs. Under WTO rules, the tariffs have to be the same for imports from the UK as from anywhere else under WTO rules.

All irrelevant though. There will be a deal. The UK will continue to pay the EU as a reasonable contribution to instritutions we continue to use (e.g. EASA and many other), we will continue to trade goods freely and fairly and on a non-tarif basis (but it wont be called the Single Market - politicians know how to be political). There will be some token gesture limitations on free movement which will have no effect in practice. And Brexit will be made to look like it is worse than not being a full member of the EU. But which will have very limited effect in practice.

It would be far easier if Mayhem just said "so we'll just become EFTA members then, and continue to be in the EEA". The final deal will look quite a bit like that, but it wont be that.

There will be a lot of hot air spouted, but it is all just politics.

Yup, this is exactly what is going to happen. Brexit is "smoke and mirrors", but if it makes people happy