Article 50 won't be triggered this year under Gove

[original PM]

No offence but that's bollux.

You have no clue about:

1. how real life economics (more precisely FDI falling off a cliff and the current account deficit rising sharply) will create increasing pressure on the UK for certainty one way or another
2. how long it takes to negotiate trade deals with other countries - its usual 5-10 years if you're lucky.

HTH, BIKIW.

Just to bring you down to earth a touch negotiations about anything can take as short or as long as both parties want them to.

The only reason negotiations would take a long time is if one or both parties have a vested interest in dragging the negotiations out.

I think when you talk 5-10 years you are looking at the EU model where the people doing the negotiations are more interested in what they can get out of it ( salary for longer and more time to claim expenses ) so it is in their vested interests to make sure things drag on and on.

If you remove those leeches then things take a lot less time.

[shaunbhoy]

Just to bring you down to earth a touch negotiations about anything can take as short or as long as both parties want them to.

The only reason negotiations would take a long time is if one or both parties have a vested interest in dragging the negotiations out.

I think when you talk 5-10 years you are looking at the EU model where the people doing the negotiations are more interested in what they can get out of it ( salary for longer and more time to claim expenses ) so it is in their vested interests to make sure things drag on and on.

If you remove those leeches then things take a lot less time.

Exactly. Sorting out a mutually agreeable trade deal between 2 parties is the sort of thing that can be done relatively quickly, particularly when most of the factors that will need to be considered are already pretty much nailed down in almost all circumstances.
It only becomes a grotesquely cumbersome business when you insist upon getting the thoughts and perspectives of 28 disparate bodies each of which possesses a veto, and many of whom have competing self-interests to serve.
Remove that impediment to progress and the whole business can be concluded in months if not a year or two.
Of course the whole 10-12 year guesstimate is based on the most pessimistic figures that could be imagined by the Project Fear "Experts".

[AtW]

Just to bring you down to earth a touch negotiations about anything can take as short or as long as both parties want them to.

The only reason negotiations would take a long time is if one or both parties have a vested interest in dragging the negotiations out.

No, negotiations take a long time because they involve a very big fook off list of things to agree on - there are lobbyists on both sides fighting with each other.

Exactly. Sorting out a mutually agreeable trade deal between 2 parties is the sort of thing that can be done relatively quickly, particularly when most of the factors that will need to be considered are already pretty much nailed down in almost all circumstances.

Oh that's good news, I was getting worried that it would take a long time but thanks for your input coming from years of high profile trade negotiations selling ice-cream from your van

[original PM]

No, negotiations take a long time because they involve a very big fook off list of things to agree on - there are lobbyists on both sides fighting with each other.



Oh that's good news, I was getting worried that it would take a long time but thanks for your input coming from years of high profile trade negotiations selling ice-cream from your van

Only if you let them.

Remember we voted out to put an end to this ridiculous situation where we have to get everyman and his dog to agree on something.

[shaunbhoy]

No, negotiations take a long time because they involve a very big fook off list of things to agree on - there are lobbyists on both sides fighting with each other.

Well the USA and Australia agreed a deal in 2 years. Go figure.

[AtW]

Only if you let them.

Remember we voted out to put an end to this ridiculous situation where we have to get everyman and his dog to agree on something.

Ok, Einstein, explain to me how you'll stop lobbyists on the OTHER side making sure cheap UK exports (due to sterling collapse) don't flood their markets and put them out of business.

[AtW]

Well the USA and Australia agreed a deal in 2 years. Go figure.

And UK _might_ get a deal with USA in 2 years.

Now how long do you think it will take to get deals with Germany, France, China, India and many other countries?

Are there enough people to run so many SEPARATE negotiations?

[shaunbhoy]

Ok, Einstein, explain to me how you'll stop lobbyists on the OTHER side making sure cheap UK exports (due to sterling collapse) don't flood their markets and put them out of business.

We don't do "cheap" in the UK. We provide quality. There is a distinct difference which I doubt you will ever grasp.

HTH

[SueEllen]

We don't do "cheap" in the UK. We provide quality. There is a distinct difference which I doubt you will ever grasp.

HTH

Are you being deliberately thick?

[shaunbhoy]

And UK _might_ get a deal with USA in 2 years.

Now how long do you think it will take to get deals with Germany, France, China, India and many other countries?

Are there enough people to run so many SEPARATE negotiations?

The basic agreements will be very similar in most aspects. A bit of fine tuning and individual tweaking is perfectly feasible for our "nation of shopkeepers".