BREXIT betting markets tracker

[jamesbrown]

Another good article:

Should you trust the pollsters or the bookies on the EU referendum? | Politics | The Guardian

Yes. My main reason for favouring betting odds, in general, is not so much the cash being staked, but the statistical averaging that is taking place over a fairly large sample and, as we know, the average or expected value is generally a good predictor. However, there's also a lot of herd behaviour and, frankly, the current odds are completely miss-pricing the probability of a Leave vote IMO, so this makes me very wary of trusting them more than the polls.

The tricky thing with probability forecasts is that you can never verify them retrospectively for one-off events. The weather provides a reasonable (contrasting) analogy. If you collect together 1000 cases where a weather forecast suggested a 30% chance of rain (on average), you could at least have some confidence that the probability forecasts were reliable if, when collecting the observed outcomes retrospectively, rain occurred on ~300 of those 1000 occasions. But there are some implicit assumptions here (stationarity, edogicity) that don't apply in one-off referendums, so we'll never know whether the probabilities were any good, retrospectively, for this referendum.

[jamesbrown]

Has anyone here put any serious cash on the result?

Depends what you mean by serious cash. I've had a moderate bet on Remain @ 1.55 decimal odds, but I've taken some much larger punts on Barclays and Easyjet (probably stand to lose 20-30k on a Brexit vote). Both would be hammered (esp. Barclays with financial passporting being uncertain), but they would survive, whereas some other companies, I'm not sure sure (e.g. RBS will rebound very strongly indeed on a Remain vote, but I wouldn't want to be left holding those on Brexit). So, yes, I will receive a reasonable kicking if we Brexit. On the other hand, MyCo is quite heavily exposed to foreign currencies, so there's an element of hedge (i.e. a lot of the losses would be clawed back via weak Sterling).

[Old Greg]

Betting odds reflect where the money is going and where people see value. They are a useful tool, but simply a tool, alongside the polls. Personally, I think there's little value in Remain at these odds. The latest Survation phone poll (just released) has Leave climbing to 49.5, with Remain only 1% ahead. Very close indeed. The value is skewed towards Leave, as a risk/reward calculation, although I think the betting odds have the result correct (just not the probability).

Another good article:

Should you trust the pollsters or the bookies on the EU referendum? | Politics | The Guardian

[sirja]

I've never been in a bookies and I'm not starting now. That said, I've 'done well' on losing cash on shares. Although £40 million sounds quite a chunk, it would appear that £200 million was punted on the Grand National in 2015.

I've done so badly on shares and spread bets I am considering setting up subscription service, where for a small fee, I tell people what I am buying/selling and they can go ahead and do the exact opposite(If I am long go short, if I am long go short) lots of people will pay off their mortgages in no time with my 'track record'!

[Old Greg]

Just out of interest, how would you bet on Trump v Clinton?

*Gets ready to bet warchest on the other side*

Trump is worth a go at 5/2.

[The_Equalizer]

Interesting article here, but not me as I've lost every political bet I've ever made (no way the US will elect a black president etc.)

EU referendum is biggest political betting event in British history | Politics | The Guardian

I've never been in a bookies and I'm not starting now. That said, I've 'done well' on losing cash on shares. Although £40 million sounds quite a chunk, it would appear that £200 million was punted on the Grand National in 2015.

[Uncle Albert]

Interesting article here, but not me as I've lost every political bet I've ever made (no way the US will elect a black president etc.)

Just out of interest, how would you bet on Trump v Clinton?

*Gets ready to bet warchest on the other side*

[Old Greg]

Has anyone here put any serious cash on the result?

Interesting article here, but not me as I've lost every political bet I've ever made (no way the US will elect a black president etc.)

EU referendum is biggest political betting event in British history | Politics | The Guardian

[DodgyAgent]

Will Paddy Power do a cull of the Brexiteers?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvq-uO-XgjM

[The_Equalizer]

I agree it's worth a punt on Leave at those odds.

Has anyone here put any serious cash on the result?