Possible scenario if "leave" wins

[VectraMan]

When Merkel is faced with her own car workers losing jobs because the EU chooses not to agree a trade deal wirh us then something will be done pdq.

Yes. Close down the BMW plants in Oxford, Warwickshire and Swindon and move the production of the Mini to Munich. Problem solved!

[GB9]

Yes. Close down the BMW plants in Oxford, Warwickshire and Swindon and move the production of the Mini to Munich. Problem solved!

Not much point in producing anything in Germany if we won't buy it. If it's built here then it won't be subject to import duty.

[DimPrawn]

Why anyone in government thinks that bastards like Goldman Sachs are a shining beacon of light for the average man on the street is a mystery. But still out they come with authority after authority beating the drum that we will be ****ed if we leave.
.

Project Fear™

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-goldman-sachs
Goldman Sachs: Brexit would hit banks and homebuilders most | Politics | The Guardian
UK must remain in EU, says Goldman Sachs – EurActiv.com

etc etc over and over.


Project Trillion $$$ Profit from Project Fear™
Who Loses the Most From ‘Brexit’? Try Goldman Sachs - WSJ

HTH the blind and the stupid

[shaunbhoy]

It seems to me an entirely reasonable prediction of how the remaining members of the EU will react

Well only if the remaining members of the EU opt to place the reins of power in the hands of petulant teenagers. I predict a much more pragmatic view from them once the result is known.

do you genuinely believe that the rest of the EU love the British so much they'll instantly give us everything we want without requiring anything in return?

I genuinely believe that the rest of the EU love themselves so much that they will act accordingly, and those actions need not be to the detriment of either themselves OR Britain.
You really need to get away from this hysterical notion that anyone is seriously considering any form of reprisals that would simply amount to cutting their noses off to spite their faces. Irrespective of what might be getting aired now.

[Old Greg]

Well only if the remaining members of the EU opt to place the reins of power in the hands of petulant teenagers. I predict a much more pragmatic view from them once the result is known.





I genuinely believe that the rest of the EU love themselves so much that they will act accordingly, and those actions need not be to the detriment of either themselves OR Britain.
You really need to get away from this hysterical notion that anyone is seriously considering any form of reprisals that would simply amount to cutting their noses off to spite their faces. Irrespective of what might be getting aired now.

I tend to agree. In the event of a BREXIT vote, there will most likely be an orderly transition to a situation where:

1. UK leaves EU
2. UK retains access to free market
3. UK continues to allow free movement for EU / EEA citizens
4. UK pays EU for privilege

There are clear models for this kind of arrangement so there is no need to be hysterical about it.

[VectraMan]

I genuinely believe that the rest of the EU love themselves so much that they will act accordingly, and those actions need not be to the detriment of either themselves OR Britain.
You really need to get away from this hysterical notion that anyone is seriously considering any form of reprisals that would simply amount to cutting their noses off to spite their faces. Irrespective of what might be getting aired now.

What wouldn't be to the detriment of either is simply staying. Your whole argument is that we're better off looking out for our self-interest, yet you're certain the EU won't also now want to look after its self-interest. It's not a "reprisal"; it's simply responding in exactly the same way as the UK. It would be remiss of the rest of the EU's leaders not to try to get the best possible deal for their own country and the EU as a whole in the negotiation with the UK. This is common sense, not the blind optimism favoured by the Outies.

[shaunbhoy]

What wouldn't be to the detriment of either is simply staying.

No, to do that would not be in our own national best interest, but it clearly benefits the rest of the EU as we are net contributors.

Your whole argument is that we're better off looking out for our self-interest, yet you're certain the EU won't also now want to look after its self-interest.

It benefits the EU a great deal more to continue trading with us than it benefits us to continue trading with them though. That is the very point that so many remainers fail to grasp. The figures are out there if you go looking, but there is no way the Remain leaders are going to point you in their direction. They are much too willing to play the fear card in the hope that the gullible and timid will simply react accordingly and plump for the status quo that perpetuates the gravy train.

[Old Greg]

No, to do that would not be in our own national best interest, but it clearly benefits the rest of the EU as we are net contributors.




It benefits the EU a great deal more to continue trading with us than it benefits us to continue trading with them though. That is the very point that so many remainers fail to grasp. The figures are out there if you go looking, but there is no way the Remain leaders are going to point you in their direction. They are much too willing to play the fear card in the hope that the gullible and timid will simply react accordingly and plump for the status quo that perpetuates the gravy train.

What % of UK trade is with rest of EU? What % of rest of EU trade is with UK?

[shaunbhoy]

What % of UK trade is with rest of EU? What % of rest of EU trade is with UK?

Well you can pretty much derive any figures you like depending on where you source them. The figures are largely dependant upon how fast the eurozone economies are growing too, which is fairly stagnant of late.
It is fair to say, however, that recent verifiable figures (2014) suggest that we import, annually, £61Bn more than we export.
(UK and the EU: Trade and economy - BBC News)

In short, more proof that the EU needs us more than we need them from a trade perspective.

[jamesbrown]

I tend to agree. In the event of a BREXIT vote, there will most likely be an orderly transition to a situation where:

1. UK leaves EU
2. UK retains access to free market
3. UK continues to allow free movement for EU / EEA citizens
4. UK pays EU for privilege

There are clear models for this kind of arrangement so there is no need to be hysterical about it.

I think that's probably true (politically orderly), at least for some interim period (measured in years).

What concerns me, to some degree (although, not a great degree), is that the BoE and other institutions have made this a one-way bet, increasing the severity of any adverse market reaction, rather than hedging, and focusing on the mechanisms in place to offset that reaction and ensure liquidity. I don't buy Carney's argument that emphasising the risks will ultimately reduce them, because he and others have opted to exaggerate those risks. So, in the unlikely event that Brexit occurs, some of these institutions will bear (a degree of) responsibility.