Where next for Japan?

[BrilloPad]

When easing gets hard | The Economist

Some economists believe that the BoJ will become the first big central bank to resort to “helicopter money”—printing money to fund government spending or to give people cash. Some argue the bank is already deploying something close to ’copter cash by sucking up so many government bonds. But it does not buy them directly, and Mr Kuroda recently said he would not countenance outright helicopter money.

It was not long ago, of course, that he categorically ruled out negative rates.

Quite.....

[WTFH]

Obviously no one has told the people of Japan to read that piece of opinion.
Last month they were out spending money in shops, bars, restaurants. There weren't lots of shops having sales. There wasn't lots of empty retail properties. Construction was continuing.


...but all that doesn't count when you've got a piece of opinion written by someone who isn't there and whose audience hasn't been there.




I wish Yodobashi Camera would be reducing their prices or have a massive sale on (particularly the Canon 200-400mm f/4L), but their business is going too well for that.

[sasguru]

Obviously no one has told the people of Japan to read that piece of opinion.
Last month they were out spending money in shops, bars, restaurants. There weren't lots of shops having sales. There wasn't lots of empty retail properties. Construction was continuing.


...but all that doesn't count when you've got a piece of opinion written by someone who isn't there and whose audience hasn't been there.




I wish Yodobashi Camera would be reducing their prices or have a massive sale on (particularly the Canon 200-400mm f/4L), but their business is going too well for that.

"Last month they were out spending money in shops, bars, restaurants. "

Sounds like the UK.
Amazing how countries can paper over the cracks for such a long time.

[WTFH]

"Last month they were out spending money in shops, bars, restaurants. "

Sounds like the UK.
Amazing how countries can paper over the cracks for such a long time.

Before my trip in March, one of the ClientCo's US contractors told us that when we were there the streets would be empty, as would the shops, no one could afford to go out, etc, because that was what was being "reported", or more precisely "opinionated" in the media.


I'll let you know how bad it is in 3 weeks time when I'm next back there.

[DimPrawn]

"Last month they were out spending money in shops, bars, restaurants. "

Sounds like the UK.
Amazing how countries can paper over the cracks for such a long time.

Indeed. It doesn't really solve anything, dropping money on consumers, who then go out and buy stuff, because, when the money runs out, you have to drop the money in again.

It merely kicks the can down the road (again) and makes side effects that have to be dealt with (like asset bubbles and other economic distortions).

[BrilloPad]

Obviously no one has told the people of Japan to read that piece of opinion.
Last month they were out spending money in shops, bars, restaurants. There weren't lots of shops having sales. There wasn't lots of empty retail properties. Construction was continuing.


...but all that doesn't count when you've got a piece of opinion written by someone who isn't there and whose audience hasn't been there.




I wish Yodobashi Camera would be reducing their prices or have a massive sale on (particularly the Canon 200-400mm f/4L), but their business is going too well for that.

I don't understand why there is all this focus on "growth and inflation". People seem to be able to get by quite well without it. Japan has a declining population - so of course growth is going to go down.

[sasguru]

Before my trip in March, one of the ClientCo's US contractors told us that when we were there the streets would be empty, as would the shops, no one could afford to go out, etc, because that was what was being "reported", or more precisely "opinionated" in the media.


I'll let you know how bad it is in 3 weeks time when I'm next back there.

Whooosh!

[WTFH]

I don't understand why there is all this focus on "growth and inflation". People seem to be able to get by quite well without it. Japan has a declining population - so of course growth is going to go down.

Yes, people get on quite well without it, but financial institutions that only deal in money can't make profits as easily. Rather than sitting back and counting the cash as it pours in, they actually have to do some work for it.


Japan's economy is not primarily built on finance, but has a large manufacturing base. They can keep making stuff.
If you have an economy that is almost totally reliant on the financial sector then you have nothing to rely on when the finance guys are failing.

[sasguru]

Yes, people get on quite well without it, but financial institutions that only deal in money can't make profits as easily. Rather than sitting back and counting the cash as it pours in, they actually have to do some work for it.


Japan's economy is not primarily built on finance, but has a large manufacturing base. They can keep making stuff.
If you have an economy that is almost totally reliant on the financial sector then you have nothing to rely on when the finance guys are failing.

Doesn't alter the fact that Japan has serious macroeconomic problems:

- highest debt to GDP ratio in the G7 (> 200%)
- an ageing population

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_public_debt

"Notwithstanding the stability of the market for Japanese government debt, the cost of servicing Japan's public debt uses up half of the state's tax revenues"

[WTFH]

Doesn't alter the fact that Japan has serious macroeconomic problems:

- highest debt to GDP ratio in the G7 (> 200%)
- an ageing population

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_public_debt

"Notwithstanding the stability of the market for Japanese government debt, the cost of servicing Japan's public debt uses up half of the state's tax revenues"

whoooooosh!