Britain would go to the ‘back of the queue' for US trade deals post-Brexit

[sasguru]

Also on a more personal level as an IT contractor who exports his services across Europe, I want to know how this will affect my livelihood.
I can't see it being a positive step in that narrow sense.

[Flashman]

Also on a more personal level as an IT contractor who exports his services across Europe, I want to know how this will affect my livelihood.
I can't see it being a positive step in that narrow sense.

Interesting. Where have you worked in Europe? Can you get me in anywhere? You must have plenty of contacts.

[Flashman]

Too many generalities coming from both sides.

I want to know:

What will happen to the car making Renaissance that has been spearheaded by primarily the Japanese in the last few decades.
What will happen to the factories and supply chains that make the wings for the Airbus.
How will this affect the last large world class manufacturing companies we have: BA and RR.
What have we got to trade with India and china
What happens to the 45% of our exports that goes to Europe.
How does this affect the City.
Etc.

Join EFTA. No changes to trade with the EU. EFTA being the organisation ourselves and Denmark left in order to join the EC back in the 70's.

A true WTF moment in British history. Leaving a club of rich countries in EFTA in order to be bossed around by the Germans and those world beating economies like Bulgaria and Spain.

[DodgyAgent]

Also on a more personal level as an IT contractor who exports his services across Europe, I want to know how this will affect my livelihood.
I can't see it being a positive step in that narrow sense.

At long long last we finally find an honest and perfectly reasonable answer

[DodgyAgent]

What did they keep - part of Mexico?

I think you will find America's Imperialism is considerably more subtle than some of you care to think

[sasguru]

Interesting. Where have you worked in Europe? Can you get me in anywhere? You must have plenty of contacts.

Germany, Switzerland and france, although I Wfh generally.
You could easily get contracts there if you have the required skills.
I have contacts yes, but quite a few come through agencies.

[jamesbrown]

Too many generalities coming from both sides.

I want to know:

What will happen to the car making Renaissance that has been spearheaded by primarily the Japanese in the last few decades.
What will happen to the factories and supply chains that make the wings for the Airbus.
How will this affect the last large world class manufacturing companies we have: BA and RR.
What have we got to trade with India and china
What happens to the 45% of our exports that goes to Europe.
How does this affect the City.
Etc.

I suggest you don't really want to know these things, because you understand that they are unknowable, whether we are inside the EU or outside.

Over the long-term time horizon that matters for these outcomes, we cannot sensibly predict the factors that drive them, whether we are inside the EU or not. A little more honesty is needed from both sides.

Our economy has perversely (if you believe in GDP through population growth) benefited from the poor state of the EU in the last few years. Will this continue? As the Eurozone attempts greater, integration, what fraction of their GDP will be invested in that process and to what extent will that hold pack non-Eurozone EU members? Can we shield ourselves from a Eurozone implosion when that process fails?

The great straw man of this debate, so far, is the belief that a status quo is available. When the risks associated with the future evolution of the EU are communicated, the polling evidence is that the public are concerned about this. The Leave camp needs to do a much better job of describing these risks. They are currently trapped in a dishonest argument that, somehow, big-picture outcomes within the EU are more certain and must, therefore, be described by the Leave camp only. This is abject nonsense.

[BlasterBates]

Join EFTA. No changes to trade with the EU. EFTA being the organisation ourselves and Denmark left in order to join the EC back in the 70's.

A true WTF moment in British history. Leaving a club of rich countries in EFTA in order to be bossed around by the Germans and those world beating economies like Bulgaria and Spain.

European Free Trade Association |

So we would then have an agreement with Norway, Lichtenstein, Iceland and Switzerland, and what do we do with the other 99.5 % of our trade ?

The word "European" may have been appropriate 40 years ago, perhaps "European Rump" might be appropriate.

[sasguru]

I suggest you don't really want to know these things, because you understand that they are unknowable, whether we are inside the EU or outside.

Over the long-term time horizon that matters for these outcomes, we cannot sensibly predict the factors that drive them, whether we are inside the EU or not. A little more honesty is needed from both sides.

Our economy has perversely (if you believe in GDP through population growth) benefited from the poor state of the EU in the last few years. Will this continue? As the Eurozone attempts greater, integration, what fraction of their GDP will be invested in that process and to what extent will that hold pack non-Eurozone EU members? Can we shield ourselves from a Eurozone implosion when that process fails?

The great straw man of this debate, so far, is the belief that a status quo is available. When the risks associated with the future evolution of the EU are communicated, the polling evidence is that the public are concerned about this. The Leave camp needs to do a much better job of describing these risks. They are currently trapped in a dishonest argument that, somehow, big-picture outcomes within the EU are more certain and must, therefore, be described by the Leave camp only. This is abject nonsense.

I disagree. The likelihood of an impact to the economy should be assessed. We can't just do some hand waving and say it'll be ok.
As for the risks of the EU a vote to stay in doesn't mean we are bound to it for all time. If it implodes well then the Brexiteers will be happy. If it becomes too federal which I doubt as the current feeling is going in the opposite direction and there are issues for non Euro zone members we can always leave.
This referendum relates to Euroland as it currently is. And the way I see it we are currently having our cake and eating it

[jamesbrown]

I disagree. The likelihood of an impact to the economy should be assessed. We can't just do some hand waving and say it'll be ok.
As for the risks of the EU a vote to stay in doesn't mean we are bound to it for all time. If it implodes well then the Brexiteers will be happy. If it becomes too federal which I doubt as the current feeling is going in the opposite direction and there are issues for non Euro zone members we can always leave.
This referendum relates to Euroland as it currently is. And the way I see it we are currently having our cake and eating it

Indeed, that is where we disagree; it doesn't relate to the status quo, because there isn't one. The last referendum was in 1975, another one is highly unlikely. It requires a special alignment of political factors that have nothing to do with the costs and benefits of EU membership. Think about that for a moment. From now on, the most likely departure scenario is a Eurozone implosion. The costs of leaving under such terms could be enormous, financially and politically. Our continued membership means an increasing exposure to Eurozone integration or, indeed, to the lack thereof. These things happen gradually over time. The costs of leaving now are much greater than they were in 1975.