Brexit: how do you think the UK will vote?

[jamesbrown]

Bookies favour an in vote. They are usually spot on.

Yep, ignore any opinion polls. The bookies do, unfortunately, know what they're doing (at least relative to opinion polls).

FWIW, there have been polls that ask precisely this question, and the vast majority expect a Remain vote, even if they will be voting Leave. Unfortunately, that could be a self-fulfilling prophecy if they can't be bothered to show-up.

[d000hg]

The deciding factor will be the wave of migrants arriving in Europe in the last year, so the majority will vote OUT for that reason even though Brexit won't change that at all.

Why not?

The UK people want no more immigration. And sending home all immigrants who are already here.

They do?

[seanraaron]

They do?

I don't know why we have elections or polling. Clearly this forum is the oracle upon which all decisions should be made.

[PurpleGorilla]

Yep, ignore any opinion polls. The bookies do, unfortunately, know what they're doing (at least relative to opinion polls).

FWIW, there have been polls that ask precisely this question, and the vast majority expect a Remain vote, even if they will be voting Leave. Unfortunately, that could be a self-fulfilling prophecy if they can't be bothered to show-up.

Could that work the opposite way. Apathetic sheeple cant be bothered to vote to remain as they think it is in the bag. Whilst uber pumped abandon shippers will walk over hot coc au vin to vote to leave?

This, or a black swan event (a la Paris) swings sentiment.

[VectraMan]

Why not?

What does a Brexit do to stop people turning up in Greece and making their way to Calais? They're not allowed into the UK either way.

[MrMarkyMark]

Clearly this forum is the oracle upon which all decisions should be made.

I would probably take it, over some of the advice that you, personally, give

[jamesbrown]

Could that work the opposite way. Apathetic sheeple cant be bothered to vote to remain as they think it is in the bag. Whilst uber pumped abandon shippers will walk over hot coc au vin to vote to leave?

This, or a black swan event (a la Paris) swings sentiment.

Dunno, really. There are so many competing things. Turnout tends to be higher among older people, and they tend to be anti-EU. A lot of students dropped off the electoral roll when registration was devolved to individuals, and that would tend to reduce turnout even further among young people that tend to be pro-EU. On the other hand, those with higher incomes tend to be pro-EU and they tend to turnout in stronger numbers. Weather will be a factor. Having two sets of elections in close succession may be a factor. Too many competing factors, but a high turnout would tend to favour a Remain vote. This is really all about the undecided voters and the extent to which ham-face will guide (scare) them.

Agree on the black-swan. That is something that could have a material impact, and is no doubt part of the logic behind having a vote sooner rather than later (alongside migrant flows over the summer).

[OwlHoot]

What does a Brexit do to stop people turning up in Greece and making their way to Calais? They're not allowed into the UK either way.

Because we wouldn't have the EU ordering us to take millions more.

Are you normally this dense?

[jamesbrown]

What does a Brexit do to stop people turning up in Greece and making their way to Calais? They're not allowed into the UK either way.

Couple of things. First, it depends whether the gov't agrees to take additional asylum seekers from within the EU, and they're currently opposed to that, but that's not guaranteed forever (we've heard the same arguments about EU bailouts). Second, as EU countries fast-track permanent residency and citizenship, this ultimately increases the EU population (w/r to free movement), and that population will tend to move from countries with low growth and no jobs (most of the EU) to countries with high growth and many jobs (UK). Third, of course, the EU itself, and particularly Schengen, has exacerbated these problems, and a Brexit may hasten the demise of the EU

[unixman]

I think it will be a bit of a shock - the out vote will win by an unexpectedly large margin. Rerun of the general election.