Originally posted by DodgyAgent
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Climate Catastrophe
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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world that he didn't exist -
…Maybe we ain’t that young anymoreComment
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My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.Comment
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Originally posted by pjclarke View Post
I am holidaying in the UK .. bring it on.Let us not forget EU open doors immigration benefits IT contractors more than anyoneComment
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To be expected really, as we are in the warm part of the climate cycle.
Enjoy it while its lasts, because.....
Global Cooling Ahead
Had they looked at the temperatures over the last 250 years, they may have arrived at a different conclusion.
Lüdecke, Hempelmann and Weiss also examined the oldest existing thermometer datasets going back some 250 years [2] taken at the locations of Kremsmünster, Vienna, Prague, Hohenpeißenberg, Munich and Paris. Their study also included ice cores and stalagmite datasets, which the scientists say “show exclusively periodic climate changes in fine detail. There is no trace of aperiodic effects, such as from the continuously rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphereLast edited by BlasterBates; 22 August 2015, 11:59.I'm alright JackComment
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According to the satellite temperatures it was not the hottest July in 136 years.
In fact it wasn't even the hottest July in the last two years.I'm alright JackComment
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Originally posted by BlasterBates View PostTo be expected really, as we are in the warm part of the climate cycle.
Enjoy it while its lasts, because.....
Global Cooling Ahead
Had they looked at the temperatures over the last 250 years, they may have arrived at a different conclusion.
http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/11/...-C206-2015.pdf
Lüdecke et al filter their proxy data with an OLS filter. Lüdecke et al argue that this filter
allows them to focus on the rate of temperature rise rather than temperature per se.
However, the effect is to use a (poorly performing) band-pass filter. Low frequencies are
supressed. High frequencies are also supressed but not monotonically. Frequencies
near the 1/200 year cycle the paper seeks to detect are preserved and consequently
dominate the filtered record. [...]
The rationale for using this filter does not seem greatly persuasive, especially since
the authors explain that the filtered record is just a phase shift from the original with
the advantage that frequencies they do not wish to consider supressed. Even if the
authors processed white noise, they would find apparent de Vries cycles fairly often
with this filter.
The predictions for future climate are dubious. The 200-year cycle the authors have
extracted from the proxy data represents a very small component of the variance in
the proxies. It only appears large in this paper because of the filter used. Even if
this cycle could be predicted, which is doubtful as at least some of its power is due
to volcanic forcing, the contribution of other frequencies would make any prediction
useless before we even consider the role of anthropogenic forcings. The predictions
would be more credible if the methods could be shown to have some predictive power.
This could be done by splitting the data into two parts, fitting the sine waves to one part
and comparing the predictions with the remainder of the data.
Rather than making dubious predictions about future climate, it would be much more
valuable if the authors explored the physical relationship between solar variability and
the proxy records. How is it possible that, for example, the proxies are not in phase
with each other and the TSI if they are governed by the de Vries cycle?My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.Comment
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Originally posted by BlasterBates View PostAccording to the satellite temperatures it was not the hottest July in 136 years.
In fact it wasn't even the hottest July in the last two years.My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.Comment
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It's starting to look like In North America they had the refusal of the great lakes ice to melt, In Europe we had a cold July, Asia - freezing, Arctic - ice up, Antarctic - ice up, Australia - dismal and cold, South America - colder than normal.
But from a global point of view, it seems to have been very warm.(\__/)
(>'.'<)
("")("") Born to Drink. Forced to WorkComment
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