This Farage Immigrants with HIV Business

[pjclarke]

Hmmm. Lots of facts and figures being thrown around. I trust the PHE numbers and the peer-reviewed study. If we combine these then the cost of medical treatment for all HIV sufferers in the UK in 2014 was between 720 and 790 million. If you include social and community care costs then it was around 1107 million.

So for the claim that the cost of treating foreign-born patients (not quite the same as non-British nationals) is 1 billion to be true, those patients would have to make up 90% of the total, which is implausible. The actual total cost is likely to be a fraction of 1% of the total NHS budget, against which we have to weigh up the benefits of free testing and treatment, in terms of encouraging people to get tested early which reduces the spread of the disease and total cost of treatment. That calculation is beyond my pay grade, but the Parliamentary committee that introduced free treatment found to the cost /benefits be compelling.

Incidentally:



In a debate where time was limited, of all the pressures on the NHS, including an aging population, diminished access to GPs diverting people to A&E to name but two, Farage chose to dedicate his time to the issue not just of communicable diseases, such as TB or hepatatis, but to a specific illness and a solution which if enacted would disproprtionately disadvantage black Africans and homosexuals. Can you say 'dogwhistle'?

HIV & AIDS Information :: Annual UK HIV treatment and care costs could reach £750 million by 2013
UK HIV & AIDS Statistics | AVERT

[ASB]

Yes, but nobody is suggesting refusing treatment to UK citizens, just refusing entry to non citizens who have HIV or other costly/dangerous illnesses.

But where do you start/stop and what do you put on the list.

There are a lot of places with fairly stringent requirements. Generally I think based on case by case rather than any sort of black list of conditions. Though I recall aus needing specific hiv clearance back in 95.

[Euler]

5 This is that typical non sequitur argument employed by liberals. Yes, of course we have many problems in the UK including an ageing population, but how is that any argument in favour of taking on yet more problems that we do not need to have? Actually, unrestricted immigration from developing countries is increasing the ageing population problem because so many minorities have poorer health than the UK average and will remain in work for less time.

I'll respond to this point which illustrates unfortunately how you seem to be unable to think clearly and whoich contains some substantial inaccuracies.

First of all I'm not a liberal - I don't believe in health tourism.
My point with ageing is that it is a significantly larger problem than health tourism and that needs to be sorted first. My solution to the ageing problem would also sort out health tourism.
We are talking about health tourism which is different from immigration but as you bring up the point : immigration from non-EU countries is in fact restricted.
And lastly you claim that "minorities have poorer health than the UK average". That is not supported by the evidence. About 60% of the native population of the UK are obese and liver disease from abuse of alcohol is now one the highest rates in Europe (since people stopped drinking mainly beer in the 80s and moved to wine and spirits). European immigrants like the Poles drink too much too but non Europeans don't - the irony is that the second generation will ape the natives and become unhealthier as a result.

[vetran]

I do health economics for a living and all the models I've seen show the NHS to be unsustainable 30 years from now on the current model. This is not however due to the relatively minor issue of health tourism but due to the ageing of the population.

fine you personally can pay the bill for health tourism and we will get back to being able to get a same / next day doctor's appointment.

reminds me of Diane Abbot's refusal to admit 200,000 more people in the country every year would have an impact on housing.

[Euler]

fine you personally can pay the bill for health tourism and we will get back to being able to get a same / next day doctor's appointment.
.

There is no evidence that health tourism is causing problems with doctors appointments in the vast majority of areas in the UK.
I read recently that GP appointments were hardest to obtain in Wales. Are you suggesting there's a vast increase of health tourists in the valleys?
Or is it more likely that the Labour awarding of vast pay rises to GPs in 2005 led to more working part time, allied to the fact that 25% of trainee GP positions are currently vacant?
Really sometimes I despair at the lack of analytic ability of the general public. It's why politicians are able to pull the wool over our eyes.

[vetran]

https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...07-01-2015.pdf


figure 7

it's going down but its still about half.

[Euler]

double post

[Euler]

https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...07-01-2015.pdf


figure 7

it's going down but its still about half.

So on current trend it won't be a problem in about 10 years or so.
Surely we should be focusing on what will?

[vetran]

So on current trend it won't be a problem in about 10 years or so.
Surely we should be focusing on what will?

you mean magically people will only be infected in the UK in 10 years time, people from abroad will arrive HIV free because the graph shows a decline from an historic high? In 2004 it was 3 times as many infections from abroad now its level pegging, in future you suggest it will be zero? How does that work?

good job we have experts like you in charge of the figures.


I suspect the reason its coming down is that fewer people are being allowed in and fewer infected immigrants are being tested.

[Euler]

you mean magically people will only be infected in the UK in 10 years time, people from abroad will arrive HIV free because the graph shows a decline from an historic high? In 2004 it was 3 times as many infections from abroad now its level pegging, in future you suggest it will be zero? How does that work?

No I said it's not a major problem we should be worrying about because its small now and according to your own words it's getting smaller. Compared to the real issues.

good job we have experts like you in charge of the figures.

Well probably better we have people good at maths, with an evidence-based approach and with logical and analytical ability in charge of the figures, yes, rather than people who make it all up because it's what they "feel" is happening.

I suspect the reason its coming down is that fewer people are being allowed in and fewer infected immigrants are being tested.

See my response above.