SNP

[Batcher]

I think the ideal scenario would be a Tory/UKIP pact (maybe the LDs would grovel to be a part of it to remain in power, they're quite flexible anyway.) I'm not yet convinced we'll see a Labour/SNP coalition or even supply and confidence arrangement, as it would become openly transparent that Labour was selling English voters down the river to return to power. It could happen if Ed were that power-hungry, but it would make for an unstable arrangement, and may not be something English voters put up with. Maybe we'll even get our own vote on Scottish independence, i.e. the Scottish ejection vote.

Ideal for who? Probably the SNP but I'm not sure if that's who you meant.

I can't see UKIP getting that many seats but if it does and forms a coalition with the Tories then it will help to break up the union as they will be a right of centre anti-EU government and Scotland will be left of centre pro-EU. The SNP will probably add an indy referendum to their manifesto for 2016 Scottish elections and will win it next time.

[Batcher]

That's possible. They seem to have adopted a Trojan Horse strategy. On the other hand, I think it boils down to how much their sympathisers hate Labour over the Tories, as fundamentally, they're not very distinguishable. The Tories have a core that is genuinely pro-market and libertarian-ish, but the larger party is just a mishmash of centrist policies that is horribly boring and stuck in its ways, and reliant on tribal affiliation for its continued survival. I was going to say memetic propagation, but it's hardly that at all; rather, it seems to resolve to incredibly short-sighted policies geared to winning the next election, with no longer term vision about which to speak.

I'd like to think if they had another 5 years, they'd do something worthwhile with them, but it's just wishful thinking, unless Ukip continues to threaten to take away their support. Who knows, if Britain does get a referendum and chooses to exit (all of which I regard unlikely, as no end of scaremongering will be pulled out to prevent that), Ukip may just vanish anyway. These 5 year cycles ultimately come down to 3 year cycles, as even 2 years before the next one, they're gearing up for the next electoral campaign.

Going back to the topic at hand, it's not too different to Syriza, regarding the SNP. They may have to get their hands dirty by forming a government with the Tories, but to what extent would that foment disillusionment in their supporters? So it's ultimately a question of to what degree do their supporters see this larger goal, and how much more do they loathe Labour relative to the Tories. It's a gambit. I'd like to see them work with the Tories and maybe even Ukip, as their goals might all align quite well.

As you say, it is rather exciting compared to past elections, and most of the time I just view voting in them as an exercise in futility.

I don't think Labour are hated in Scotland but they have been shown to be aligned with the Tories during Indyref so people won't vote for them in the numbers they did in the past. Murphy & McTernan have been found out lying on a daily basis and this can't be hidden now that Twitter is a campaign tool. Murphy is attending a Uni in Glasgow today saying they won't bring in University Fees in Scotland. Apart from the obvious fact that this is a devolved matter so isn't relevant to the GE, he voted in the past to bring in tuition fees when he was in Blair's governement.

The Tories are hated in Scotland and that's why the SNP have said they won't help a Tory government under any circumstances. The Tories were wiped out in Scotland so they have no mandate to govern Scotland.

[d000hg]

That's why this election is so intriguing.

Last time was interesting too. Have we really seen some fundamental shift in UK politics or is this just a blip and we'll be back to 2-party politics soon? Two data points isn't a trend after all.

[minestrone]

Everyone told me that the Tories winning the last GE would make everyone vote for independence. It never happened.

Most people are happier with the tories than with independence, the evidence backs that up, if Cameron wins this one and beats to death the krankies the nationalists won't win another indeyref.

As someone in the know told me, IN Scotland 30% are nationalists and 30% are untionists, the rest are asset holders who will vote for who they think will give them the best living conditions. Right now I think most people believe the tories are the safer bet.

[worzelGummidge]

Everyone told me that the Tories winning the last GE would make everyone vote for independence. It never happened.

Most people are happier with the tories than with independence, the evidence backs that up, if Cameron wins this one and beats to death the krankies the nationalists won't win another indeyref.

As someone in the know told me, IN Scotland 30% are nationalists and 30% are untionists, the rest are asset holders who will vote for who they think will give them the best living conditions. Right now I think most people believe the tories are the safer bet.

Yep.
Or, the heart is SNP and the head is Labour with a bit of a blue tint.

It will be a Tory majority or minority government. There may be two elections though.

[Zero Liability]

I don't think Labour are hated in Scotland but they have been shown to be aligned with the Tories during Indyref so people won't vote for them in the numbers they did in the past. Murphy & McTernan have been found out lying on a daily basis and this can't be hidden now that Twitter is a campaign tool. Murphy is attending a Uni in Glasgow today saying they won't bring in University Fees in Scotland. Apart from the obvious fact that this is a devolved matter so isn't relevant to the GE, he voted in the past to bring in tuition fees when he was in Blair's governement.

The Tories are hated in Scotland and that's why the SNP have said they won't help a Tory government under any circumstances. The Tories were wiped out in Scotland so they have no mandate to govern Scotland.

Yes, however their intention is to leave the UK, so getting comfortable in a Labour government that blunts their perceived grievances by acceding to their requests within the Union may not be what they want. Many Tories other than Cameron would like Scotland to go, and if it left, rUK's continued membership of the EU would be irrelevant to them. I don't think their ultimate goal is cosying up with Labour, but to leave the Union, to guarantee their autonomy. Besides, I doubt they have much ideological cohesion with Labour, either. Miliband is as much of a unionist as Cameron; maybe they do view him as an easier target, though.

[worzelGummidge]

I don't think Labour are hated in Scotland but they have been shown to be aligned with the Tories during Indyref so people won't vote for them in the numbers they did in the past. Murphy & McTernan have been found out lying on a daily basis and this can't be hidden now that Twitter is a campaign tool. Murphy is attending a Uni in Glasgow today saying they won't bring in University Fees in Scotland. Apart from the obvious fact that this is a devolved matter so isn't relevant to the GE, he voted in the past to bring in tuition fees when he was in Blair's governement.

The Tories are hated in Scotland and that's why the SNP have said they won't help a Tory government under any circumstances. The Tories were wiped out in Scotland so they have no mandate to govern Scotland.

The Mrs is Scottish and she voted for the nasty Tory party last time.
I was however under strict instructions not to tell her mother.

[Goatfell]

The Tories are hated in Scotland and that's why the SNP have said they won't help a Tory government under any circumstances. The Tories were wiped out in Scotland so they have no mandate to govern Scotland.

Not wanting to start an argument here but...
The Conservatives share of the vote in 2010 rose by 1% to nearly 16.7%, it secured them a single seat though. Compare that to the LibDems with 18.9%/11 seats (-1) and the SNP with 19.9%/6 seats (-1) and the picture isn't quite so clear, OK the 1000lb gorilla is Labour who polled 42%/41 seats (+2). So does that mean that the SNP and LibDems are hated nearly as much as the Tories, or that when it comes to Westminster the Tories are liked nearly as much as the SNP?

Interestingly PR would have changed the distribution dramatically, Labour losing 16 seats, SNP gaining four, LibDems staying the same, but the Conservatives being the big winner gaining nine.

IMHO in the last few decades there were a great many people in Scotland who wouldn't vote for a Tory if they were paid, possibly as many as wouldn't have voted for anyone but Labour if they were paid - that is changing now (for the better)

[Batcher]

Not wanting to start an argument here but...
The Conservatives share of the vote in 2010 rose by 1% to nearly 16.7%, it secured them a single seat though. Compare that to the LibDems with 18.9%/11 seats (-1) and the SNP with 19.9%/6 seats (-1) and the picture isn't quite so clear, OK the 1000lb gorilla is Labour who polled 42%/41 seats (+2). So does that mean that the SNP and LibDems are hated nearly as much as the Tories, or that when it comes to Westminster the Tories are liked nearly as much as the SNP?

Interestingly PR would have changed the distribution dramatically, Labour losing 16 seats, SNP gaining four, LibDems staying the same, but the Conservatives being the big winner gaining nine.

IMHO in the last few decades there were a great many people in Scotland who wouldn't vote for a Tory if they were paid, possibly as many as wouldn't have voted for anyone but Labour if they were paid - that is changing now (for the better)

I think it was unusual in that people voted SNP in Scottish elections and got them the majority which the PR system was designed to avoid but voted Labour in Westminster elections as a vote against the Tories. Now that Labour/Tory/LibDems have campaigned side-by-side in the Indyref, the voters can't see any difference so the Scottish parliament and Westminster votes are starting to align to an SNP majority.

[Batcher]

We all hope & pray.

Amen to that, Comrade