August 2014 Warmest on record, globally

[DodgyAgent]

It's called confirmation bias. Different people interpret the same data in different ways.
If you skew your interpretation in a way that supports your hypothesis, thats confirmation bias.
People who have an emotional stake in the game are particularly vulnerable.

emo people who have a hypothesis - danger will robinson
detached people who are sceptical - very trustworthy

the fact may be that this has been the hottest August ever. I would not dispute that unless there was scientific evidence to the contrary. If the zealots then say that the world will end in 2 years unless we pay squillions of money to Scientists to tell us we are going to die this is not fact. The zealots like to call anyone who disagrees with their prognosis as "deniers".

[pjclarke]

If the zealots then say that the world will end in 2 years unless we pay squillions of money to Scientists to tell us we are going to die this is not fact. .

Nobody is saying that are they? Or anything remotely like it.

[pjclarke]

It's called confirmation bias. Different people interpret the same data in different ways.
If you skew your interpretation in a way that supports your hypothesis, thats confirmation bias.
People who have an emotional stake in the game are particularly vulnerable.

emo people who have a hypothesis - danger will robinson
detached people who are sceptical - very trustworthy

Let me know where I can find some of the latter, rather than people who think, for example, that a few carefully-lifted and much-repeated quotes from stolen private correspondence are sufficient to call a body of science dating back over a hundred years and the conclusions of thousands of studies, and the position of every scientific body of standing, into question.

[DodgyAgent]

Nobody is saying that are they? Or anything remotely like it.

Unfortunately most lefties are also pretty witless and lack the emotional intelligence to understand things like metaphor or deliberate exaggerations to make a point. As you seem unable to see anything beyond its literal meaning then may I suggest you run a search on Google with the words "climate change - end of the world" I think you will find there are plenty of people predicting this.

Having done the search myself it is also interesting that many of the doom mongers offer some smidgen of hope. why? firstly to cover themselves just in case they are wrong. Secondly by offering a glimmer of hope they are assured that the gravy train from which they prosper remains switched on.

After all Vincent price - even though he had to make an example by hanging a few witches always gave anyone with a few bob a route to salvation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3Mfes57Nt8

[pjclarke]

I would not be suprised if PJ came along and said that he predicted this all along, and that increased ice was indeed caused by global warming

No, the increase in Antarctic sea ice is a puzzle, the models forecast a modest decrease at this stage, rather than a modest (compared to the Arctic) increase, changes in wind patterns seem to be a factor.

But to describe this years Arctic ice numbers as an increase or a 'recovery' as some are, just because we haven't had another record low this year, well, that looks like the confirmation bias of which you speak. according to the US NSIDC

'On September 17, Arctic sea ice reached its likely minimum extent for 2014. This is now the sixth lowest extent in the satellite record and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent

[DodgyAgent]

N

But to describe this years Arctic ice numbers as an increase or a 'recovery' as some are, just because we haven't had another record low this year, well, that looks like the confirmation bias of which you speak. according to the US NSIDC

Again hardly factual is it? This is a prognosis where you disagree with someone else. presumably because you disagree with EOs prognosis this therefore make him a denier?

[Old Greg]

Unfortunately most lefties are also pretty witless and lack the emotional intelligence to understand things like metaphor or deliberate exaggerations to make a point.

Was that a metaphor or deliberate exaggeration? I can't tell.

[DimPrawn]

Type:

2014 coldest year on record

into Google

[pjclarke]

Again hardly factual is it? This is a prognosis where you disagree with someone else. presumably because you disagree with EOs prognosis this therefore make him a denier?

It could not be more factual. The facts are these: the Arctic ice reaches minimum extent in September, providing a time series. The September number this year on or near the trend line, and that trend is down. It is higher than 2012, which was a record low, so if you look at that insignificant timeframe you can talk of an 'increase' or a 'recovery'. That may not be flat-out denial however it is indicative of an ignorance of statistics, and a strong confirmation bias.

[pjclarke]

Here's the August graph. 'Increasing?'