August 2014 Warmest on record, globally

[SpontaneousOrder]

That's not quite accurate; 'model', as in 'climate model' usually implies a complex piece of software run on a supercomputer many times. The 'model' used by Hansen consists of the following:

1. Take the estimated contribution to SLR from ice sheet disintegration - about 1mm/yr, giving 1cm for the decade 2005-2015
2. Observe that this has doubled over the last decade.
3. Assume it carries on doubling each decade

This gives a rise of approx 5m this century. So there were no 'various model runs', it was more a fag-packet illustration of a geometric progression. As Hansen noted,



Ice sheet breakup is problematic and hard to model, to the extent that the 2007 IPCC report simply included it as a linear term in their SLR estimates:



Hansen is at the other end of the spectrum, assuming the breakup will be dynamic, and non-linear, and he lays out his reasons in the references to the above paper. At no point however, did he state that 5m was his most likely number.

So you agree with me then? (apart from I should have said 'projections' (i.e. Richard Alley's) instead of 'models' - which has nothing to do with the point anyway)