Will Scottish independence mean that RUK will vote to leave the EU

[tractor]

...

Are you sure Article 48 is majority - thought that had to be unanimous - as it involves a change to an already signed treaty.

Assuming Spain has a veto with Articles 48 and Articles 49, Spain is never going to allow iScotland in - or at least not until Scotland is so poor, that Catalan crap themselves. To do otherwise, would almost certainly set into action a sequence of events which would tear apart their own country.

International politics are about negotiation and give-and-take, but you can't negotiate if your offer means they have to commit political suicide, which is what will likely happen to the Spanish state if they let iScotland into the EU. Better to be pariahs in the EU for holding out, but at least the country is still in one piece.

Turkeys don't vote for Christmas - no matter how good the terms are.

48, simple majority to get a proposal looked at, unanimous to pass it, if after 5 years one or more states do not, then a majority to pass it. Which is why 49 is a better bet, needs to comply and have a majority vote for the proposal.

[malvolio]

48, simple majority to get a proposal looked at, unanimous to pass it, if after 5 years one or more states do not, then a majority to pass it. Which is why 49 is a better bet, needs to comply and have a majority vote for the proposal.

So that's around 10 year's elapsed once the current candidates - there's currently five of them, most of whom started in 2008 - have been accepted or not. Not really a good recipe for short term fiscal support then, is it...

[DiscoStu]

So that's around 10 year's elapsed once the current candidates - there's currently five of them, most of whom started in 2008 - have been accepted or not. Not really a good recipe for short term fiscal support then, is it...

But they'll be using GBP in a currency union apparently

[malvolio]

But they'll be using GBP in a currency union apparently

Yeah, right. Well nearly right, omit the word "union"...

[Flashman]

The best article on an independent Scotland and the EU that I've seen.

EU legal fog lets Scots bank on politics to keep them in | Reuters

.......Partial legal precedents cited for and against the Scottish case include Algeria, which kept some access to European markets for a time after it broke from France, Danish-ruled Greenland's exit from the EU and Kosovo's disputed statehood, as well as the EU's absorption of 16 million East Germans with minimal fuss.

Ultimately, however, it may be less lawyerly argument and more messy but flexible EU politics that win the day.

A compromise could prevent five million EU citizens being cast out against their will while easing fears in Spain and beyond that it opens a Pandora's Box of centrifugal spirits - Catalan, Basque, Flemish, Breton, Lombard and many besides.

"Whatever the lawyers say, this will come down to politics," said an official in Brussels who, like diplomats and bureaucrats across the bloc, would not be drawn into the campaign by talking publicly on what most of them hope remains a hypothetical issue.

"It's the EU way," the official said. "Whatever politicians eventually negotiate can be made to fit the texts.".......