Will the contract market recover? If so when?

[NorthWestPerm2Contr]

Has been a very tough few months for the contract market (see state of market thread). Last time I experienced anything like this was back in 2008. How long will this last and how long until things recover to how they were in 2022?

[northernladuk]

From memory the contractor market in 2022 was supposed to be the worst to date wasn't it? Were we hoping to get back to the what the market was like in 2020 at that point?

Answer to your question? Who knows, end of the war, some countries swapping ruling parties, end of a global pandemic? Possibly maybe. Maybe it never will?

[JustKeepSwimming]

From memory the contractor market in 2022 was supposed to be the worst to date wasn't it? Were we hoping to get back to the what the market was like in 2020 at that point?

Answer to your question? Who knows, end of the war, some countries swapping ruling parties, end of a global pandemic? Possibly maybe. Maybe it never will?

People were actually claiming 2022 was bad? Best year I can ever recall beyond a few niche market specific events.

I would've expected in a recession and cost cutting (redundancies) that it would lead to increase in contracting, but i'm really not hopeful.

[northernladuk]

People were actually claiming 2022 was bad? Best year I can ever recall beyond a few niche market specific events.

I would've expected in a recession and cost cutting (redundancies) that it would lead to increase in contracting, but i'm really not hopeful.

The general feel is it's been down hill for over a decade now. As more perms jump ship and contracting becomes the standard way to get tech done it's just been a mess. I really don't know what a 'Contractor Market' is as such. Surely depends what you do, your skills, what industry you work in. Just too broad a brush to use for a useful discussion. You only need one gig to last a year or two and it's irrelevant what the 'market' does.

Talking about 2022, the market thread has had it's moans and here is an example of an article from 2022
https://www.contractoruk.com/news/00...tion_sets.html

But even then it really depends on who you ask. Here are three more articles from 2023
March - Doom
https://www.contractoruk.com/news/00...remy_hunt.html
April - Doom
https://www.contractoruk.com/news/00...uk_hiring.html
May - Boom
https://www.contractoruk.com/news/00...pril_2023.html

One month is suddenly doom from boom? I very much doubt it so who knows what the 'market' really is.

Way to survive? Be the best at what you do, get the choice gigs and forget worrying about what the 'market' does.

[Guy Incognito]

Probably never. I would not recommend contracting to my younger self if I was coming through now. Most of the benefits have been eroded away.

[swamp]

I'm optimistic:

* Things aren't as bad as 2001-2003
* If Labour win the next election they might kick off a whole bunch of public sector projects
* We could have an "AI boom"
* Plenty IT failures -- British Airways and Home Office in last week alone -- indicate a lack of investment

[northernladuk]

* If Labour win the next election they might kick off a whole bunch of public sector projects

Nothing but Public Sector contracts available doesn't exactly fill me with glee. Done my time on PS projects and they weren't the best.

[edison]

People were actually claiming 2022 was bad? Best year I can ever recall beyond a few niche market specific events.

I would've expected in a recession and cost cutting (redundancies) that it would lead to increase in contracting, but i'm really not hopeful.

I agree, mid-2021 to summer 2022 was red hot from what I saw. Many of the agencies I was speaking to at the time were bumping up their percentage fees as they had so much work on (perm as well as contract.) Perm market was crazy at the higher end, some recruiters had waiting lists for taking on new mandates although you could get to the front of the wait list by paying in full in advance.

I doubt I'l see those conditions again for a very long time.

[Fraidycat]

2025 would be my best guess.

Although if by some good luck, inflation numbers in the UK fall enough, it could be much sooner.

I suspect there are many projects that have been put on hold, so there is a lot of pent up demand that will be released when confidence returns.

In the US there is a new boom based on AI, venture capital funds are throwing big money at AI projects, but i don't think that is going to help us much here in the uk.

[JustKeepSwimming]

I agree, mid-2021 to summer 2022 was red hot from what I saw. Many of the agencies I was speaking to at the time were bumping up their percentage fees as they had so much work on (perm as well as contract.) Perm market was crazy at the higher end, some recruiters had waiting lists for taking on new mandates although you could get to the front of the wait list by paying in full in advance.

I doubt I'l see those conditions again for a very long time.

I have to bite my tongue when talking with friends who didn't move jobs in 21/22 and now griping about inflation/salary. Any of them could've got a 20%+ payrise quite easily, even more for some as the labour shortage meant you could move up and grade or two. I had a couple of 'name your price' offers.