State of the Market

[Skag]

I was hoping because the UK stockmarket was holding up well, things wont get so bad in the UK.
Europe is seen as a good investment relative to US stocks at the moment, including UK stocks for some reason.

But who knows maybe there will be stock market crash in the UK this year as well. Then things will really get dire.

But when did the stockmarket follow any logic though? See Covid time, 2013... etc

[Fraidycat]

But when did the stockmarket follow any logic though? See Covid time, 2013... etc

The stock market did crash during covid but quickly recovered after central bank and government interventions. So it was quite logical.

The IT job market did the same thing.

Although the FTSE 100 held up well last year, the FTSE 250 was down 20%. So I guess we are currently feeling the effects of that.

[Bluenose]

In terms of the state of the U.K Contracting market, the outlook is grim, unless the U.K Government does something positive (unlikely) but, that's to do with regulation, not necessarily the demand for tech workers or, the wider U.K economy.

In terms of the state of the U.K and World economy, the recession (if one appears) this year should be a shallow and short one. Nobody is expecting a 2001/2008/2020 style bust in the jobs market.

If anything we have had our bust already in 2020, the problem is that the U.K Government is strangling the I.T industry slowly and I can't see 2023 or 2024 being good years hence, my desire to leave the U.K.

[SussexSeagull]

Agree with the above but as ever you only have to get it right once to land a contract.

[Bluenose]

Agree with the above but as ever you only have to get it right once to land a contract.

Absolutely true but my Jobserve spam gauge is currently reading 40% lower activity than it was last June. That means its tough out there right now.

[The Green View]

TBH if you are in your late fifties I think you probably have a better chance with contracting than permie. I am at a big IB in the City and there are literally hundreds of over 50s contractors and hardly any over 50 permie devs. One thing I have noticed is that a lot of them work on back-end technology .... a lot being database and data pipeline specialists. Youngsters seem to be a bit scared of the relational DBMs monsters ... probably for good reason in this big data age.

Never worked in IB and I gather it's a bit of a closed shop unless you have prior experience. Maybe what you're saying applies to the wider market though.

Absolutely true but my Jobserve spam gauge is currently reading 40% lower activity than it was last June. That means its tough out there right now.

Yes, it's got so bad that I'm even answering calls from Indian recruiters rather than my usual "not today, thankyou" line.

[TheDude]

Never worked in IB and I gather it's a bit of a closed shop unless you have prior experience.

Not at all. In fact you don't even have to be that competent to get into places like RBS, Barclays etc.

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley etc. set the bar quite a bit higher but still recruit from outside the industry.

[SussexSeagull]

Absolutely true but my Jobserve spam gauge is currently reading 40% lower activity than it was last June. That means it's agreetough out there right now.

I agree but you have to keep going!

Baskin the old days the way round 200 people applying for every contract was to apply for 200 contracts but that isn't possible anymore.

[Bluenose]

Yes, it's got so bad that I'm even answering calls from Indian recruiters rather than my usual "not today, thankyou" line.

Outside of Banking, some of these guys are now armed with big budgets for inside roles. Make sure you validate that before you close the call without talking.

[edison]

The stock market did crash during covid but quickly recovered after central bank and government interventions. So it was quite logical.

The IT job market did the same thing.

Although the FTSE 100 held up well last year, the FTSE 250 was down 20%. So I guess we are currently feeling the effects of that.

Key thing to remember with the UK stock market is the FTSE100 is mostly comprised of global companies that make something like 70-80% of their money outside the UK so are insulated to a certain extent from a UK recession. Think oil & gas, miners, banks, pharmaceuticals. Those alone are 13 of the top 20 biggest firms.

Conversely, the FTSE250 is very UK economy focused, lots of retailers, property companies, housebuilders and others that are sensitive to consumer spending and often quite cyclical. I imagine FTSE250 firms will be more likely to be cutting back on hiring this year.