State of the Market

[edison]

Just off the phone to an agent (London banking sectors) he was asking me for any leads !!!

He said 2 years ago they had 2000+ roles (contractor and perm), last year at this time they had 500 ish, now he just has a few java / full stack / cloud roles

he said clients are still extending existing contractors, but not so many as before, meaning every month thousands of contractors are joining the hunt for non existent roles, guys he could place in 10 mins a year ago, now wait with others good guys on the bench (each never being out of a contract before)

In more good news, he has regular meetings with big clients to see what programs are in there pipelines so they can prepare CV’s etc when then need 50/100+ contractors in a short time - again all the pipelines are empty

I asked about perm roles - he just laughed and said unless an existing client offers you a perm role, there is zero point applying for one as you are up against top not permies and clients seldom believe you now want to become a permie for the sake of it on 1/2 the salary, they think you will jump ship at 1st opportunity- and why take the risk when they have 50 permie applications

Being challenged by potential perm employers on why you want to leave contracting will be a major obstacle for many contractors who have been benched for a long period. I got this all the time at interviews in 2014/15 after looking to switch back to perm (and I'd been contracting only 18 months then.) Imagine if you have 10 or 15 years contracting experience, who's going to believe you when you say you really want to go perm?

As for client company pipelines of work, from what I've gathered from people I know who sell large projects or programmes of work, clients do still have money and the long term appetite to invest it but the lead time to selling work is becoming exceptionally long with the Brexit/macro economic environment uncertainty showing no end in sight. Certain sectors that are being hit hardest by Brexit uncertainty, e.g. automotive and food and drink may rebound quicker once there is a clear picture of what's going to happen in 2020.

However, given we're only about 5 weeks away from December and the xmas/new year wind down, I expect we won't see things showing any signs of picking up till at least Feb/Mar.

[oliverson]

Being challenged by potential perm employers on why you want to leave contracting will be a major obstacle for many contractors who have been benched for a long period. I got this all the time at interviews in 2014/15 after looking to switch back to perm (and I'd been contracting only 18 months then.) Imagine if you have 10 or 15 years contracting experience, who's going to believe you when you say you really want to go perm?

As for client company pipelines of work, from what I've gathered from people I know who sell large projects or programmes of work, clients do still have money and the long term appetite to invest it but the lead time to selling work is becoming exceptionally long with the Brexit/macro economic environment uncertainty showing no end in sight. Certain sectors that are being hit hardest by Brexit uncertainty, e.g. automotive and food and drink may rebound quicker once there is a clear picture of what's going to happen in 2020.

However, given we're only about 5 weeks away from December and the xmas/new year wind down, I expect we won't see things showing any signs of picking up till at least Feb/Mar.

I'm not buying that one. Using Brexit as an excuse when the reality is the industry is moving away from combustion engines to electric and they've not kept up with the pace (pun intended).

[edison]

Being challenged by potential perm employers on why you want to leave contracting will be a major obstacle for many contractors who have been benched for a long period. I got this all the time at interviews in 2014/15 after looking to switch back to perm (and I'd been contracting only 18 months then.) Imagine if you have 10 or 15 years contracting experience, who's going to believe you when you say you really want to go perm?

As for client company pipelines of work, from what I've gathered from people I know who sell large projects or programmes of work, clients do still have money and the long term appetite to invest it but the lead time to selling work is becoming exceptionally long with the Brexit/macro economic environment uncertainty showing no end in sight. Certain sectors that are being hit hardest by Brexit uncertainty, e.g. automotive and food and drink may rebound quicker once there is a clear picture of what's going to happen in 2020.

However, given we're only about 5 weeks away from December and the xmas/new year wind down, I expect we won't see things showing any signs of picking up till at least Feb/Mar.

I'm not buying that one. Using Brexit as an excuse when the reality is the industry is moving away from combustion engines to electric and they've not kept up with the pace (pun intended).

It's got nothing to do with any move towards electric vehicles. For a start, electric vehicles are only a tiny fraction of sales in most EU countries.

The automotive industry's short to medium term challenge is that their just in time supply chains have been developed over decades and tightly integrated with many partners in Europe. No one fully knows what will happen post-Brexit regarding border and customs checks, import tariffs etc. Their whole manufacturing and supply chain model is built on the premise of frictionless borders.

[Cirrus]

Their whole manufacturing and supply chain model is built on the premise of frictionless borders.

I'm not sure I buy this friction will kill you dead argument. As I've reminded everyone before, BMW makes most of its X range in South Carolina. It's BMW's second biggest plant. The USA is not in the EU but it doesn't stop them doing just fine.

[BlasterBates]

I'm not sure I buy this friction will kill you dead argument. As I've reminded everyone before, BMW makes most of its X range in South Carolina. It's BMW's second biggest plant. The USA is not in the EU but it doesn't stop them doing just fine.

How would the plant get on if South Carolina were to leave the US and trade on WTO terms ?

[Cirrus]

How would the plant get on if South Carolina were to leave the US and trade on WTO terms ?

The impression I get is that trade deals affect tariffs and quotas but as regards friction, it's just a question of whether you are in the EU or not. Even with a soft Brexit we get friction.

[edison]

I'm not sure I buy this friction will kill you dead argument. As I've reminded everyone before, BMW makes most of its X range in South Carolina. It's BMW's second biggest plant. The USA is not in the EU but it doesn't stop them doing just fine.

Err, BMW is only one manufacturer. What about everyone else?

BMW has an engine plant in the UK. Some of the component parts have to be shipped in from outside the UK. The completed engines then get shipped just in time for assembly into cars at production sites in other countries.

That becomes a complicated supply chain.

The industry manufacturer's trade body (SMMT) have said that a No Deal Brexit would be a disaster for them:

Automotive Brexit myths - busted - SMMT

[eek]

The impression I get is that trade deals affect tariffs and quotas but as regards friction, it's just a question of whether you are in the EU or not. Even with a soft Brexit we get friction.

And at some point the companies will discover that the friction is too expensive and move the factory out of the UK as the next car is designed and the production line is re-engineered.

The only thing a soft Brexit does is remove the need to move things immediately companies can work with the delays until the current production lines are replaced.

[Cirrus]

BMW has an engine plant in the UK. Some of the component parts have to be shipped in from outside the UK. The completed engines then get shipped just in time for assembly into cars at production sites in other countries. That becomes a complicated supply chain.

Almost certainly the same applies to Spartanburg,SC but no disasters.

Business loves to ferry stuff back and forth across borders. Business loves just-in-time. Business loves no-friction. They make a lot a noise about losing these things but I bet it's a minor issue compared to the cost of labour, labour flexibility, material costs, energy costs etc etc. As long as the pound devalues enough, and the Tories depress taxation, they'll probably cope.

[Jolie]

Has anyone ever turned to day trading or starting a small business when on the bench?

I would like to think that none of you rely completely on your main gig, and do some day trading or other business on the side, just in case.

If not, then now is the time to start.

Day trading, if done properly, can only last a maximum of 30 mins to 1 hour per day, when Wall Street opens. There's no excuse, you can do this in your lunch hour.

If you are unlucky enough to find yourself on the bench, the income from trading can see you through.