Does anyone believe a general election could happen soon after Brexit?

[jamesbrown]

That would be less smart than when May asked for a GE (and that was really, really reallyyyy stupid)! Right now he as a majority, very very slim and probably not manageable but still he has it. At this point in a general election Tories would struggle to be the most voted party, leave it alone getting anything close to a majority!!!

Boris having a majority is not what matters. He doesn't.

What matters is whether there is a majority for anything else or anyone else.

There isn't.

[CryingSheep]

Boris having a majority is not what matters. He doesn't.

What matters is whether there is a majority for anything else or anyone else.

There isn't.

I am aware of it, but any GE at this point will just exacerbate that... At this point he 'just' need to convince MPs from his own party and the coalition party. Not saying that's an easy task atm but for sure easier than having to do that plus a few dozens from another party!

[jamesbrown]

I am aware of it, but any GE at this point will just exacerbate that... At this point he 'just' need to convince MPs from his own party and the coalition party. Not saying that's an easy task atm but for sure easier than having to do that plus a few dozens from another party!

But he cannot convince MPs from his own party.

It's almost certain that he'll lose a VONC when one is called, and Corbyn is the only one that can call a VONC, and he will probably call one on Sept. 4, which is the first opportunity.

But losing a VONC isn't really what matters. So long as there is no consensus on an alternative PM, and there probably won't be, then Boris remains PM and Boris remains in charge of the timetable for a GE, among other things.

The best hope for anti no-dealers now is to take charge of the order paper via SO24 w/ help from Bercow, mandate that an extension is unconditionally requested and accepted via legislation, and then to amend the FTPA and call an election on a different timetable. It's still a long-shot, though, and it won't play well with the leave voting electorate who are more likely to coalesce than remainers, many of whom would never vote Lib Dumb.

[stonehenge]

What is a vote of no confidence? - BBC News

"Losing a no-confidence vote starts a critical 14-day period, after which a general election could be triggered.

To prevent an automatic general election taking place, the existing government - or an alternative one formed during that period - must persuade MPs to pass a vote of confidence.

The wording of the confidence motion has to be: "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government."

At the end of the 14 days, assuming such a motion hasn't passed, the prime minister advises the Queen when the general election will take place."

So, BoJo can set the date for the GE in Nov and let the clock run down until we leave with no deal on 31 Oct.

[Platypus]

So, BoJo can set the date for the GE in Nov and let the clock run down until we leave with no deal on 31 Oct.

Correct

Good, innit?

Oh but apparently Dominic Grieve, who self-proclaims to be a constitutional expert, reckons this can be prevented. Dominic Cummings, who says he doesn't know very much about very much, said let's see what the former knows

[Old Greg]

But he cannot convince MPs from his own party.

It's almost certain that he'll lose a VONC when one is called, and Corbyn is the only one that can call a VONC, and he will probably call one on Sept. 4, which is the first opportunity.

But losing a VONC isn't really what matters. So long as there is no consensus on an alternative PM, and there probably won't be, then Boris remains PM and Boris remains in charge of the timetable for a GE, among other things.

The best hope for anti no-dealers now is to take charge of the order paper via SO24 w/ help from Bercow, mandate that an extension is unconditionally requested and accepted via legislation, and then to amend the FTPA and call an election on a different timetable. It's still a long-shot, though, and it won't play well with the leave voting electorate who are more likely to coalesce than remainers, many of whom would never vote Lib Dumb.

Cummings seems to be suggesting that even if there is a parliamentary majority for an alternative PM, Johnson would ignore that and refuse to resign.

[jamesbrown]

Cummings seems to be suggesting that even if there is a parliamentary majority for an alternative PM, Johnson would ignore that and refuse to resign.

Right. But he cannot be confident about that position. Would HM intervene? Could the majority change the FTPA to be explicit about what should happen (i.e., that the new PM should take over)? Probably not in each case, given the timetable, but he cannot be confident about either of those things.

The only way to be confident is if there is no majority for an alternative. Once there is an alternative administration, more options open, even if they are long shots.

This is why you hear about Grieve et al. trying to cancel the conference season recess. They don't have anything substantive they can do, but if that thing comes along, then they will need time to implement it.

Corbyn will accept nothing less than him as PM. Will others agree? Looks very, very unlikely.

[jamesbrown]

Ultimately, Corbyn has always been the backstop that made Brexit likely.

[Old Greg]

Ultimately, Corbyn has always been the backstop that made Brexit likely.

The fun scenario is Johnson loses the VONC. Parliament install another PM and then hold a VONC leading to a GE and in the election period there is an anti No Deal PM. Can't remember if there is a need for legislation to delay Brexit date.

[jamesbrown]

The fun scenario is Johnson loses the VONC. Parliament install another PM and then hold a VONC leading to a GE and in the election period there is an anti No Deal PM. Can't remember if there is a need for legislation to delay Brexit date.

But Corbyn has complete control over any alternative administration. He won't accept anything less than him as PM. It seems highly unlikely that Parliament will agree, or even that all Labour MPs will agree, even for the act of requesting an extension. Many people simply don't trust him.

In that scenario, Johnson remains PM. Right?

It seems to me that the hurdle is not so much the law (no, legislation isn't needed to request an extension, that is Crown Prerogative), but agreement about a coalition that can demonstrate confidence. If Corbyn isn't onside, it cannot happen. Even if he is onside, Cummings thinks that won't be enough, but we'll see about that (I suspect he's wrong on that detail).