Reply to: Does anyone believe a general election could happen soon after Brexit?

[Zigenare]

Good point.

Does anyone know how often no confidence votes can happen? Could there be one every week?

Until people *are* "confident"?

[BrilloPad]

For a Torie to vote for the no confidence vote means, shooting himself on the foot as it's quite clear that a new election at this point will result in less seats for Tories than currently. That said doesn't mean it can't happen, specially when you just need one or two 'rebels'.

Good point.

Does anyone know how often no confidence votes can happen? Could there be one every week?

[BrilloPad]

The risk is that the remainers in parliament pass a law preventing Brexit before the election date, the process starts but Brexit doesn't happen on the 31st Oct and the whole thing backfires on Boris because he is seen as having broken his main promise.

That said there may be no alternative to an election if a vote of no confidence is lost.

My guess is there will be an election somewhere between 7th Nov 2019 and 7th May 2020 anyway as the current situation of a majority of 1 is not viable

I was wondering if the Tory ant-no-deal brigade might vote against Tories in a vote of no confidence?

Hammond has implied he would. I am not sure how many would if it happens.

[Zigenare]

For a Torie to vote for the no confidence vote means, shooting himself on the foot as it's quite clear that a new election at this point will result in less seats for Tories than currently. That said doesn't mean it can't happen, specially when you just need one or two 'rebels'.

I wasn't saying that Boris has any other option than accepting a potential GE if a no confidence vote passes, was saying he would be very dumb calling elections on his own initiative (as May did in the pass).

Which pass was that? The Khyber?

[CryingSheep]

I was wondering if he may lose a vote of no confidence.

For a Torie to vote for the no confidence vote means, shooting himself on the foot as it's quite clear that a new election at this point will result in less seats for Tories than currently. That said doesn't mean it can't happen, specially when you just need one or two 'rebels'.

I wasn't saying that Boris has any other option than accepting a potential GE if a no confidence vote passes, was saying he would be very dumb calling elections on his own initiative (as May did in the pass).

[highlandspring]

I was wondering if he may lose a vote of no confidence.

That is the story in the press - my guess is he will win initially at least, there may be another though..

[BrilloPad]

That would be less smart than when May asked for a GE (and that was really, really reallyyyy stupid)! Right now he as a majority, very very slim and probably not manageable but still he has it. At this point in a general election Tories would struggle to be the most voted party, leave it alone getting anything close to a majority!!!

I was wondering if he may lose a vote of no confidence.

[highlandspring]

Risk

The risk is that the remainers in parliament pass a law preventing Brexit before the election date, the process starts but Brexit doesn't happen on the 31st Oct and the whole thing backfires on Boris because he is seen as having broken his main promise.

That said there may be no alternative to an election if a vote of no confidence is lost.

My guess is there will be an election somewhere between 7th Nov 2019 and 7th May 2020 anyway as the current situation of a majority of 1 is not viable

[WordIsBond]

Ultimately, Corbyn has always been the backstop that made Brexit likely.

This, over and over again.

[MasterBait]

No 10 cancels staff leave, hinting at likelihood of snap election | Boris Johnson | The Guardian

[Old Greg]

All that to say, I don't think we'll see a different administration.

The anti no-dealers will be focusing on legislative routes, without changing the administration, I reckon.

I think so too. VONC is too high risk. Parliament vs Executive is also a much more interesting struggle.

[jamesbrown]

All that to say, I don't think we'll see a different administration.

The anti no-dealers will be focusing on legislative routes, without changing the administration, I reckon.

[jamesbrown]

The fun scenario is Johnson loses the VONC. Parliament install another PM and then hold a VONC leading to a GE and in the election period there is an anti No Deal PM. Can't remember if there is a need for legislation to delay Brexit date.

But Corbyn has complete control over any alternative administration. He won't accept anything less than him as PM. It seems highly unlikely that Parliament will agree, or even that all Labour MPs will agree, even for the act of requesting an extension. Many people simply don't trust him.

In that scenario, Johnson remains PM. Right?

It seems to me that the hurdle is not so much the law (no, legislation isn't needed to request an extension, that is Crown Prerogative), but agreement about a coalition that can demonstrate confidence. If Corbyn isn't onside, it cannot happen. Even if he is onside, Cummings thinks that won't be enough, but we'll see about that (I suspect he's wrong on that detail).

[Old Greg]

Ultimately, Corbyn has always been the backstop that made Brexit likely.

The fun scenario is Johnson loses the VONC. Parliament install another PM and then hold a VONC leading to a GE and in the election period there is an anti No Deal PM. Can't remember if there is a need for legislation to delay Brexit date.

[jamesbrown]

Ultimately, Corbyn has always been the backstop that made Brexit likely.