No deal off the table now?

[GreenMirror]

Nevertheless, this does not change the fact that we leave on 29 March unless there is an extension or we withdraw A50.

I was thinking that.

An extension requires agreement from the EU. So I suspect A50 will be withdrawn.

[Old Greg]

I was thinking that.

An extension requires agreement from the EU. So I suspect A50 will be withdrawn.

My money is on an extension, but who knows where it's going to land.

[Yorkie62]

I was thinking that.

An extension requires agreement from the EU. So I suspect A50 will be withdrawn.

We will leave on March 29th. If is via a deal May will stay on. If its via No Deal May will call a GE on March 30th leaving Corbyn with a dilemma. Does he fight the GE on returning the UK to the EU or does he fight the GE on how he will renegotiate the terms of our post departure? Both of these pretty much, for the Labour Party, equate to the same thing IMO. So this calling a GE on March 30th after No Deal could be a smart move by May, the bad apple in the barrel is that she has already said she will not lead the Conservatives into the next GE, so the Conservatives need a leadership election first.

[Old Greg]

We will leave on March 29th.

Seeing as you have a crystal ball, get over to Paddy Power.

Article 50 deadline to be officially extended beyond 30-3-2019
Yes 2/5
No 15/8

[Yorkie62]

Seeing as you have a crystal ball, get over to Paddy Power.

Article 50 deadline to be officially extended beyond 30-3-2019
Yes 2/5
No 15/8

Hardly good odds. Now if they were to offer me 100/1 or better on article 50 not being extended they might have my interest. If I am going to gamble I at least want the opportunity to make a few quid.

[WTFH]

I wonder what odds Somerset Capital Management got on it, and in which currency,

[Whorty]

Parliament is actually pretty much split on No Deal, just as the general public are with a small majority rejecting it. To say that there are only a few extremists supporting No deal is wrong when there were only 8 MPs in favour or rejecting NO Deal. I saw a poll recently that suggested the general public feel the same in that there is a small majority who do not support the No Deal Scenario, however there was a majority that thought that the No Deal scenario was now the most likely outcome.

Not strictly true. If you saw the interviews after the votes Tory MPs said they are against no deal but were they didn't consider Tuesday the right time to tie May's hands. Up to 40 ministers, some in cabinet, say they will resign and vote against no deal if push comes to shove. So yes, on Tuesday, no deal off the table (no binding) was a small majority, but there is a much larger group who will vote against no deal if May is voted down again in 2 weeks.

Will that stop no deal? Who knows. But you are wrong to say the majority in parliament is only small.

As for some of the public supporting no deal, well, these are presumably the same that voted out and don't understand how WTO or our economy works, so they are best ignored

[Old Greg]

Hardly good odds. Now if they were to offer me 100/1 or better on article 50 not being extended they might have my interest. If I am going to gamble I at least want the opportunity to make a few quid.

You made it sound like it was a no risk dead cert. They're great odds.

[Whorty]

We will leave on March 29th. If is via a deal May will stay on. If its via No Deal May will call a GE on March 30th leaving Corbyn with a dilemma. Does he fight the GE on returning the UK to the EU or does he fight the GE on how he will renegotiate the terms of our post departure? Both of these pretty much, for the Labour Party, equate to the same thing IMO. So this calling a GE on March 30th after No Deal could be a smart move by May, the bad apple in the barrel is that she has already said she will not lead the Conservatives into the next GE, so the Conservatives need a leadership election first.

No guarantees that we will leave on 29th March yet. All scenarios are still possible. If they weren't then the likes of the ERG wouldn't be scheming in background and Farage wouldn't be so swivel eyed and frothy mouthed.

If there is a GE called it will be before 29th March to stop us crashing out. To stop no deal, there could be a binding vote in parliament (and there are enough numbers for that) or Tory rebels could join the opposition parties and call a vote of no confidence in May to bring their own party down. This may be their last resort, but it is possible. And who knows what the DUP will do next time.

May has 2 choices (assuming the EU won't change the backstop which seems a given). She can do a deal with Corbyn and concede a closer SM/CU relationship with the EU to effectively remove the backstop. This would lose them the support of the DUP but Corbyn might let the Tories limp on for 12 months to get Brexit over the line before a GE is called.

Or, she can come back with the same dead deal, and see if parliament has changed it's mind and votes it through (it hasn't, it won't, she knows this). This could trigger all manner of things again including a no confidence vote as Corbyn has no reason to back May or the deal; will the DUP and/or Tory rebels just vote out May then to clear the way? At this point if her deal is voted down parliament will vote on either remove option of no deal, or ERG will put their 'managed no deal' on the table, breaking ranks for the first time in 2 years with some kind of option.

No one can say for sure what will happen. We can all speculate. We can all claim we know what will happen based on our own desires, but none of us know.

All we know for sure is it's interesting to watch, but makes our country look like idiots. Who'd want to work with us after this fiasco! And we wonder why simple government IT projects never come in on time, budget or cost

[Whorty]

Hardly good odds. Now if they were to offer me 100/1 or better on article 50 not being extended they might have my interest. If I am going to gamble I at least want the opportunity to make a few quid.

But you've been telling us for weeks you're cocksure that we're leaving on 29th March. Paddy Power are offering good odds for yo given you already know we're leaving and A50 won't be extended. Free money for you, surely?