May's end game

[Whorty]

I was referencing JRM, who is such a strong supporter of British parliamentary sovereignty that he is suggesting suspending parliament.

Is that the same JRM whos constituents voted remain, but he's pushing for the harshest of leave?

[Old Greg]

Is that the same JRM whos constituents voted remain, but he's pushing for the harshest of leave?

The very same.

[stonehenge]

It's now crunch time. Cooper's vs Brady's amendments. If Brady succeeds with his backstop amendment then I suspect May's Brexit goes through, otherwise Brexit will go into the long grass.

As I understand it, Brady's amendment is just an indicative vote as to whether the House would accept the WA with an alternative to the backstop. The EU would still have to agree to change it.

There are also dangers if May backs the amendment (with a three-line whip). And dangers if she doesn't.

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-01-25/...er-brexit-deal

[Lance]

As I understand it, Brady's amendment is just an indicative vote as to whether the House would accept the WA with an alternative to the backstop. The EU would still have to agree to change it.

There are also dangers if May backs the amendment (with a three-line whip). And dangers if she doesn't.

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-01-25/...er-brexit-deal

The key thing here is that if Brady's amendment succeeds May can go back to the EU and say "here's something I can get a majority for. Now please adjust the backstop so we can finish this"

[GreenMirror]

Is that the same JRM whos constituents voted remain, but he's pushing for the harshest of leave?

The very same.

I think constituents expect him to vote with his conscience.

Which is odd as he does not have one. Though nanny does.

[stonehenge]

The key thing here is that if Brady's amendment succeeds May can go back to the EU and say "here's something I can get a majority for. Now please adjust the backstop so we can finish this"

Yes, but as Peston says

'On the other, the PM also knows that the EU’s negotiators and the Irish government would interpret her giving official backing to the amendment as in effect ripping up the Withdrawal Agreement – and far from encouraging the EU to amend and compromise, it could be what forces the EU’s 27 leaders to conclude that no “reasonable” deal will ever be negotiable.'

[AtW]

The key thing here is that if Brady's amendment succeeds May can go back to the EU and say "here's something I can get a majority for. Now please adjust the backstop so we can finish this"

She needs to get majority in Ireland for that

[Lance]

She needs to get majority in Ireland for that

There wasn't a referendum on the current backstop. How does the Irish government decide what EU decisions need a ref?

[Old Greg]

There wasn't a referendum on the current backstop. How does the Irish government decide what EU decisions need a ref?

The backstop isn't law (I expect), but a treaty with an external country, like an FTA.

[meridian]

There wasn't a referendum on the current backstop. How does the Irish government decide what EU decisions need a ref?

In short, anything that changes the Irish Constitution. The backstop doesn't change anything on the EU side, there are no new treaties that impact written constitutions, so there is no need for additional referendums by EU member states.

If the Withdrawal Agreement changes, though, Member States have influence through the European Parliament and European Council:

(A50 text)It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

The Council and Parliament could force through a WA without a backstop against the wishes of Ireland if there is a qualified majority, but it's not likely this would happen - too many small countries will be looking to ensure collective responsibility is taken. It is possible, though.