No Deal Crash-Out: Can't Happen?

[Cirrus]

For a short while David Davis was my hero because he was saying Canada++ is the only viable route forward. It seemed like something you could start working on, instead of all the pie-in-the-sky-and-eat-it nonsense being pedalled by the Government.

The problem however with this short term love affair was Canada++ isn't viable. It leaves a border in Ireland and it doesn't cover 80% of our trade.

However as we stare Armageddon in the face, you have to reassess the situation. Canada++ doesn't tick many boxes but it ticks more than WTO Crash-out. With No-Deal you get borders and you get tariffs, quotas, inspections, rule-taking (in effect), no passporting - well all the downsides.

Now surely, when the UK finally has to accept that there is no Cake-and-Eat-It - and they have to choose between Remain or Leave - then Canada++ is always going to be better than No-Deal.

So why do people keep on talking about No-Deal being the most likely outcome? It's impossible, surely?

[sasguru]

For a short while David Davis was my hero because he was saying Canada++ is the only viable route forward. It seemed like something you could start working on, instead of all the pie-in-the-sky-and-eat-it nonsense being pedalled by the Government.

The problem however with this short term love affair was Canada++ isn't viable. It leaves a border in Ireland and it doesn't cover 80% of our trade.

However as we stare Armageddon in the face, you have to reassess the situation. Canada++ doesn't tick many boxes but it ticks more than WTO Crash-out. With No-Deal you get borders and you get tariffs, quotas, inspections, rule-taking (in effect), no passporting - well all the downsides.

Now surely, when the UK finally has to accept that there is no Cake-and-Eat-It - and they have to choose between Remain or Leave - then Canada++ is always going to be better than No-Deal.

So why do people keep on talking about No-Deal being the most likely outcome? It's impossible, surely?

Why is it impossible? History is replete with instances of a lose-lose outcome.
And in this case there's a powerful and rich clique on the UK side who would benefit from such an outcome, for whom it's a win.

[BlasterBates]

The reason why the government is shying away from Canada plus is that the car companies planning to shut immediately after Brexit will stay shut.

Sure if they agree to pay the 40 billion then they can have an orderly shut down over 18 months, but when they start switching to Canada plus, the Brexiteers will be just as vociferous that no money should be paid, and therefore a Canada plus isn't possible either.

[AtW]

Why bother with car companies when you can buy them tariff free from all over the workd???

[Cirrus]

Why bother with car companies when you can buy them tariff free from all over the world

Yes a massive boost from free trade would be great. Oh, except, the EU already gave us that (all in the price we paid for membership).

In 2016, five years after the European Union–South Korea Free Trade Agreement has been provisionally put in place, the European Commission announced that EU exports to South Korea increased by 55%; European companies saved €2.8 billion in scrapped or discounted customs duties; and bilateral trade in goods between the EU and South Korea grew annually, reaching a record level of over €90 billion in 2015.[22]

In the United Kingdom, Lord Price CVO, Minister of State for Trade Policy, Department for International Trade (DIT), said that the EU-Korea FTA had boosted UK exports to Korea by 111% from 2010/11 to 2014/15

By all means keep looking for that pot of gold at the end of Brexit but (caveat: I'm not a doctor) don't hold your breath.

[Old Greg]

Yes a massive boost from free trade would be great. Oh, except, the EU already gave us that (all in the price we paid for membership).



By all means keep looking for that pot of gold at the end of Brexit but (caveat: I'm not a doctor) don't hold your breath.

Nonsense. John Redwood explained on the radio this morning that leaving without a deal would be really great news. I expect they chose him to appear as part of the global trend of laughing at the UK. Well worth a listen for anyone who likes a giggle. https://cdn.rasset.ie/manifest/audio.../manifest.m3u8