Brexiters plaintive fall back argument: "You can't predict the future"

[Bean]

Yes, but in your case, you're incapable of understanding the distinction - and that makes you stupid.

Unfortunately, you are not in a position to make that assessment.


Assguru didn't say that though, did he - he said 'not knowing', which is ignorance, not stupidity and therefore, it was stupid of him to use 'stupid' incorrectly and I stated as such.


Besides, he's basically admitted what I was getting at - that most normal people, don't claim to be able to predict the future, in any meaningful way related to the term;

If I could predict exactly, I would be a billionaire by now

HTH BIDI

[Bean]

Welcome back. DId you go to sign on?

Nope, something called a life. You should look into it sometime.

[vetran]

This is not an economy in rude health.

no its an economy in uncertainty. Once / if Brexit is organised then the economy may bounce back.

[sasguru]

no its an economy in uncertainty. Once / if Brexit is organised then the economy may bounce back.

WIll the economy bounce back after a hard a.k.a real Brexit do you predict?

[sasguru]

WIll the economy bounce back after a hard a.k.a real Brexit do you predict?

No answer from vetran? I wonder why.

[vetran]

WIll the economy bounce back after a hard a.k.a real Brexit do you predict?

PWC do.

https://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-servi...uk-economy.pdf



see 2.4

[vetran]

No answer from vetran? I wonder why.

I was busy doing your missus, don't be surprised if she is in a good mood this afternoon.

Actually I had something important to do.

[sasguru]

PWC do.

https://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-servi...uk-economy.pdf



see 2.4

"Based on our modelling of the five types of impact discussed above, we estimate that the level of real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) UK GDP in 2030 could be around 1.2% lower in the FTA [i.e. soft Brexit] exit scenario than in the counterfactual (i.e. without an EU exit) and around 3.5% lower in the WTO [i.e. hard Brexit] exit scenario. After adjusting for
population changes in the different scenarios, we estimate that average real GDP per capita could be between 0.8 and 2.7% lower in 2030 in the two scenarios.

We looked at the impacts over the period to 2030 as this is a time horizon over which the short-term uncertainty relating to post-exit arrangements should have largely
dissipated and the UK economy would have had time to adapt to a new relationship with EU countries.
As set out in Table 2.1, these longer term impacts on real GDP are driven primarily by trade and migration effects.
Limitations on free access to the EU Single Market, and the resulting tightening in trade terms with the EU, would be expected to reduce exports and GDP. The migration impacts could lead to a lower number of working individuals in the UK, which would havea negative impact on GDP, although the effect on GDP per capita would be smaller as shown in the final row ofTable 2.1
The estimated impacts vary over timeas illustrated in Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.2. There is a significant short-term impact of around 3% to 5.5% of GDP by 2020 due in large part to the effect of uncertainty, and then a longer term impact of between around 1.2% and 3.5% on GDP in 2030 once the initial impact of uncertainty has faded away. "


I've highlighted the PWC prediction under a hard Brexit (i.e. WTO) and it seems substantial and long-lasting - reduction of 5.5% of GDP in 2020 and a slight improvement to a fall of 3.5% by 2030. Let's round these figures DOWN to 5% and 3% respectively:

SO lets take the 2020 figure - fall of 5% of UK GDP (about 2.6 trillion) = a whopping 135 billion a year
If we take the 2030 figure - fall of 3% of UK GDP per year = 81 billion a year

To get some perspective the UK contribution to the EU after rebate is 8 billion a year.

Not sure how this is good news to be honest, lets say 100 billion odd being wiped off UK GDP year on year for 10 years and beyond
This will essentially consign the UK to the bottom rung of EU countries.

But I find it encouraging that Brexiters are starting to engage with numbers and figures rather than brain farts.