Brexiters plaintive fall back argument: "You can't predict the future"

[NotAllThere]

I don't know what happened to get the mass stupidity we have now

It's immigration, innit.

[tomtomagain]

You cannot predict the past. It's already happened.

You cannot predict the present. It's currently happening.

Therefore you can ONLY predict the future.

I seem to remember you making repeated predictions over a 12 month period that the UK was going to enter recession first in 2017 and then when that didn't happen, in 2018. That didn't happen. But then the previous government also predicted an immediate recession and the loss of 500k jobs. So you were in good company in getting it utterly wrong.

I predicted BitCoin to reach $4k ( down from $8 ) back in March ... that never happened either.



So it's more appropriate to say :

"You can only predict the future. However, your predictions should be understood to have a high margin of error."

[sasguru]

You cannot predict the past. It's already happened.

You cannot predict the present. It's currently happening.

Therefore you can ONLY predict the future.

I seem to remember you making repeated predictions over a 12 month period that the UK was going to enter recession first in 2017 and then when that didn't happen, in 2018. That didn't happen. But then the previous government also predicted an immediate recession and the loss of 500k jobs. So you were in good company in getting it utterly wrong.

I predicted BitCoin to reach $4k ( down from $8 ) back in March ... that never happened either.



So it's more appropriate to say :

"You can only predict the future. However, your predictions should be understood to have a high margin of error."

No, Britain will boom after Brexit, obviously. Let's see what happens, if in fact Brexit goes ahead.

[Bean]

Au contraire, it is. Some things are predictable, some are not. Not knowing the distinction is what makes you stupid.

Not knowing the distinction between two things, would make someone ignorant, not stupid - you stupid cretin

Come on, give the pigeons some more peace and list some examples for us to chortle at

[sasguru]

Not knowing the distinction between two things, would make someone ignorant, not stupid - you stupid cretin

Come on, give the pigeons some more peace and list some examples for us to chortle at

Welcome back. DId you go to sign on?

[tomtomagain]

Let's look back at someone's prediction and give it a review.


Here's a random one I found that was made in July 2017 in this thread.

Doesn't look like BOE can raise rates now. Problem is the US has a policy of "normalising" i.e. raising interest rates.
Which means the pound will plummet even further against the dollar and inflation will rise further as commodities are priced in dollars.

Or the BOE can raise interest rates regardless of the weak data.

Either way consumption - the primary driver of the UK economy - is going to fall.
Caught between a rock and a hard place.

I predict proper recession by next year or earlier - while the rest of the rich world will be growing.

So what happened? Well, the BoE raised rates in November. ( A rise is on the cards for Thursday, I'm not going to predict whether it happens though :-) )

The pound, rather than plummeting, has remained stable against the USD.

Rather than rising, inflation has fallen from 3% in Jan 2018 to 2.4% today.

Consumer consumption has been up and down, although seems to be relatively "flat" overall. The high-street has of course been having a torrid time. But that's due to the ever-increasing impact of online retailing.

A proper recession by next year ( 2018 ) or earlier.

Well clearly we haven't had a recession, and I don't know what defines a "proper" one, it doesn't look like we'll have the 2 quarters of negative growth required this year to go into recession.

This bit is interesting :

- while the rest of the rich world will be growing

The EU/USA are currently growing more quickly than the UK. Whether this is because of BREXIT uncertainty or Trumps massive tax-cuts or the fact that some EU countries have finally turned a corner from their post-2008 crisis is not clear.


All in all, not a bad prediction really. It was just mostly wrong that's all.

[sasguru]

Let's look back at someone's prediction and give it a review.


Here's a random one I found that was made in July 2017 in this thread.



So what happened? Well, the BoE raised rates in November. ( A rise is on the cards for Thursday, I'm not going to predict whether it happens though :-) )

The pound, rather than plummeting, has remained stable against the USD.

Rather than rising, inflation has fallen from 3% in Jan 2018 to 2.4% today.

Consumer consumption has been up and down, although seems to be relatively "flat" overall. The high-street has of course been having a torrid time. But that's due to the ever-increasing impact of online retailing.

Well clearly we haven't had a recession, and I don't know what defines a "proper" one, it doesn't look like we'll have the 2 quarters of negative growth required this year to go into recession.

This bit is interesting :



The EU/USA are currently growing more quickly than the UK. Whether this is because of BREXIT uncertainty or Trumps massive tax-cuts or the fact that some EU countries have finally turned a corner from their post-2008 crisis is not clear.


All in all, not a bad prediction really. It was just mostly wrong that's all.

About half-wrong. Growth in 2018 is nothing to write home about: while the US is on an annualised rate of 4.x% we are on 1.x% if we're very lucky.
Point is Brexit has had a marked effect in growth : from top of the G7 mid 2016 to bottom now.
So I'd say a pretty good prediction, if not quite recession, growth this year really is bumping along the bottom. 0.1% in 1st quarter, unconfirmed 0.4% in 2nd quarter.

Re consumption: looks like the British consumer is borrowing to fund this:

https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...time-on-record

This is not an economy in rude health.

[tomtomagain]

This is not an economy in rude health.

Not an economy in a recession either.

Still, it wasn't a bad attempt and I genuinely mean that. As you know, predicting is a mugs-game, especially about the future.

The US is pushing ahead, Trump's massive set of tax cuts seem to have done the trick. I expect he'll cut even more to make sure he gets a second term. After that, it will be someone else's hangover to deal with.

With regards to the UK, I'm not surprised at a lower growth rate. Partly because recessions always come and go, the economy goes up a bit, goes down a bit, goes up a bit.

And partly because we are in "Peak-Uncertainty" with regards to BREXIT.

BREXIT is 90% hot air and noise - from all sides.

My prediction: The UK economy will continue to move onwards, slightly lagging behind the EU average, until the deal is announced at which point it will pick up. Regardless of what the deal is.

The government will inject a large economic boost in terms of tax cuts and increased spending in 2019/2020 in time to win the next election. It will be titled "The BREXIT dividend" ( regardless of whether there is a dividend, as that is utterly irrelevant ).

And you can hold me to that.

[sasguru]

Still, it wasn't a bad attempt and I genuinely mean that.

Thanks. If I could predict exactly, I would be a billionaire by now. One can see trends based on causes, however.

With regards to the UK, I'm not surprised at a lower growth rate. Partly because recessions always come and go, the economy goes up a bit, goes down a bit, goes up a bit.

That is being disingenuous. There was a sharp fall in growth rate from top of the G7 to bottom immediately after the Brexit ref. No one argues about the cause.
1.x% growth rates are well below the UK post war average. The UK has never been bottom of the pack in a growth phase of the world economy, at least post 80s.

My prediction: The UK economy will continue to move onwards, slightly lagging behind the EU average, until the deal is announced at which point it will pick up. Regardless of what the deal is.

I suspect there won't in the end be a "real" Brexit, in which case you'd be right. Hard Brexit will lead a sharp acceleration of the current malaise though.

The government will inject a large economic boost in terms of tax cuts and increased spending in 2019/2020 in time to win the next election. It will be titled "The BREXIT dividend" ( regardless of whether there is a dividend, as that is utterly irrelevant ).

Ah yes the Trumpian short term fix.

[NotAllThere]

Not knowing the distinction between two things, would make someone ignorant, not stupid - ...

Yes, but in your case, you're incapable of understanding the distinction - and that makes you stupid.