Two years on from the Brexit vote...

[Old Greg]

...and the British government has nearly written a “detailed, ambitious and precise” paper on Brexit and the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

So what's the timeline looking like, for finishing off this document, agreeing a deal with the EU, including the Irish border and then getting the deal ratified?

[sasguru]

The tulipe is about to hit the fan.

[BlasterBates]

Brexiteers deliberately dragging their heels and making impossible demands to get their no deal.

[Old Greg]

The HoC discontent has not subsided.

https://www.ft.com/content/1c1e8fe6-...6-75a27d27ea5f

Last week, Theresa May saw off a rebellion on her own benches over parliament’s right to a “meaningful vote” on the terms of Britain’s exit, rather than a binary choice of deal or no deal.

Some Brexit-supporting MPs interpreted the collapse of the revolt as a key moment that left open the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, if necessary.

As the European Council holds a key summit this week, Mrs May has said that leaving without any agreement remains an option. Liam Fox, trade secretary, said on Saturday he still believed “no deal would be better than a bad deal”.

Meanwhile EU leaders called on member states and companies last week to step up contingency preparations for a no-deal Brexit after concerns that the UK had made “no substantial progress” on the Irish border.

But one former cabinet minister said that a large number of Conservatives are ready to veto any attempt at crashing out without a deal.

“There are at least 50 Conservative MPs who would be prepared to vote to stop that happening, which would be more than enough to force the government to take notice,” the former minister said.

“In the end, parliament will find a way to stop a no deal Brexit happening if that’s what it takes, including Conservative MPs like myself.”

Another former minister said that there would be even more rebels in those circumstances: “You need to speculate on a larger number, including cabinet and junior ministers.”

The prospect of a no-deal scenario has sent shudders through the business world: Airbus, the aerospace giant, warned on Thursday that the company could quit the UK unless the government made the right decisions on Brexit.

One plan being discussed by Tory Europhiles to veto a no-deal Brexit is a “humble address” — the tactic employed successfully by Labour to force the government to release the notorious 58 Brexit economic assessments.

Under parliamentary rules, such an address can be laid by a group of backbenchers — as well as by the Opposition — and the vote is binding on the government. “A humble address would definitely be one way of doing it,” the former cabinet minister added.

[Eirikur]

Brexiteers deliberately dragging their heels and making impossible demands to get their no deal.

In which case a paper won't be required

[meridian]

...and the British government has nearly written a “detailed, ambitious and precise” paper on Brexit and the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

So what's the timeline looking like, for finishing off this document, agreeing a deal with the EU, including the Irish border and then getting the deal ratified?

The timeline for the future relationship is 2021 assuming the WA is ratified, and no trade or agency deal is required to leave the EU.

The only three things that are required for March 2019 are the exit payment schedule (should be easy), the status of EU citizens in the U.K. and of U.K. citizens in the EU (should be easy), and the Irish border (not possible based on current red lines).

Something has to give if the U.K. wants the transition period, and I’m rather hoping that May will throw the DUP under the bus and accept the EU offer of a bespoke arrangement for NI with the customs border down the Irish Sea.