The Pub Analogy

[original PM]

In other words, you did no research, you have no plan, and you don’t care about the results as long as it’s “change”.

Thanks for ******* up the country with no idea.

You seems to strike me as one of those people who spend weeks, months and even years trying to plan to the nth degree the project you are working on - but this is so flawed

"Firstly, the business case process is designed to reduce risk by up-front assessment of the merits of an investment. But despite the apparent sophistication, this is all just guesswork.

'As Andrew wrote:
at their heart, business cases are crystal ball gazing with Excel tables. Experience has shown that there is no better way to guarantee poor predictions than to use individual experts to make assumptions about the future, and sprinkle on a little cognitive bias. Yet this is exactly how we still cost up all the biggest public sector investments.

'We are trapped in what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls an “Intellectual Yet Idiot”-led process.
Furthermore, the traditional SOC/OBC/FBC process is designed around big, traditional OJEU procurement processes. We write down our requirements up front, run a tender and sign a waterfall contract. Discovery and iteration — if it happens at all — is usually confined to the ‘SOC’ stage.'

[sasguru]

I don't need an Excel spreadsheet or any model to tell me Brexit will leave the country poorer.
I just have to listen to Brexiters spouting their deluded crap, while watching the growth rate slow to the slowest in the G7, the unemployment rate rise at last measure and watch several companies in my industry, and others, mainly in London, make tracks abroad.
It's not going to be as fast as people thought, but the deterioration is going to happen.
But it may be that it won't be noticed as Britian is already, in many ways, a 2nd rate nation, propped up by the top 10-15% of people and companies and with a long, long tail of under-performers.
Take London out the equation and the UK is an also-ran on a par with the Med countries.

[original PM]

I don't need an Excel spreadsheet or any model to tell me Brexit will leave the country poorer.
I just have to listen to Brexiters spouting their deluded crap, while watching the growth rate slow to the slowest in the G7, the unemployment rate rise at last measure and watch several companies in my industry, and others, mainly in London, make tracks abroad.
It's not going to be as fast as people thought, but the deterioration is going to happen.
But it may be that it won't be noticed as Britian is already, in many ways, a 2nd rate nation, propped up by the top 10-15% of people and companies and with a long, long tail of under-performers.
Take London out the equation and the UK is an also-ran on a par with the Med countries.

Ok well i am glad you have an opinion on the subject.

As I have said before lets wait and see what actually happens.

If it ends up that I have to star in german piss videos to feed the family then maybe I will concede you had a point.

[meridian]

You seems to strike me as one of those people who spend weeks, months and even years trying to plan to the nth degree the project you are working on - but this is so flawed

"Firstly, the business case process is designed to reduce risk by up-front assessment of the merits of an investment. But despite the apparent sophistication, this is all just guesswork.

'As Andrew wrote:
at their heart, business cases are crystal ball gazing with Excel tables. Experience has shown that there is no better way to guarantee poor predictions than to use individual experts to make assumptions about the future, and sprinkle on a little cognitive bias. Yet this is exactly how we still cost up all the biggest public sector investments.

'We are trapped in what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls an “Intellectual Yet Idiot”-led process.
Furthermore, the traditional SOC/OBC/FBC process is designed around big, traditional OJEU procurement processes. We write down our requirements up front, run a tender and sign a waterfall contract. Discovery and iteration — if it happens at all — is usually confined to the ‘SOC’ stage.'

No, but I do concede that I do _some_ planning.

I’m a mere pawn in software development, where I play only a small part in delivering multi-million pound services. To not plan for delivery would be most unprofessional, would cost my client, and would likely cause me to lose my contract and be unsuccessful in my next.

To take an entire country out of the EU on this basis, and to have some measure of pride in doing so, is reckless in the extreme.

[sal]

So we should just have continued as we were blindly accepting what we were told? Doing what we were told? Thinking what we were told?

When you say we did not research it - that was because every single piece of research anyone would have done would have been commissioned by someone with a bias towards one side or the other - and as we know Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

In other words it would not have made a difference.

A lot of people do not like change - not because it is not better or worse - but because it is difficult and scary and unknown - and so if they had been part of the research their response would have been biased by their desire for things to remain as they are and familiar.

There is a good book all about it Who Moved my Cheese?

You don't have any clue how the EU functions and how any major decision is made do you?

People don't like change, because there is 0.01% chance of our Government to deliver a change for better and 99.99% chance to deliver a change for worse.

I can't wait for this charade to be over, so the likes of you can no longer complain how the EU is screwing us over left, right and centre.

Oh wait, it's never gonna happen, since you will still moan how the EU gave us raw deal and keep complaining how it's responsible for all our troubles for centuries to come...

[original PM]

You don't have any clue how the EU functions and how any major decision is made do you?

People don't like change, because there is 0.01% chance of our Government to deliver a change for better and 99.99% chance to deliver a change for worse.

I can't wait for this charade to be over, so the likes of you can no longer complain how the EU is screwing us over left, right and centre.

Oh wait, it's never gonna happen, since you will still moan how the EU gave us raw deal and keep complaining how it's responsible for all our troubles for centuries to come...

Not me - I just want us gone, i did not really moan when we were in the EU and Brexit was not even on the table (so only like 3 or 4 years ago really).

For me personally we do not need two parliamentary governing bodies - there is enough going on with just one - without the need to add the extra layer.

So maybe if the vote had not been to leave the EU but rather to either leave the EU or stay in the EU and dissolve the UK parliament then I may have voted to stay in the EU.

But then in reality the childish mentality of the EU leaders who re seeing their carefully constructed large pension plan being picked apart really tells me that would have been a bad idea.

[sal]

First of all Parliament is not a governing body, but law making one. The EU one was already in place when we joined and not something new, so what changed?

By the sound of it you would have been happy to vote for Brexit for the sake of it even if ballot explicitly stated that it would lead to a significant damage to the economy and quality of life for the UK population.

By your own admission you would have been happy to vote for the dissolution of the UK Parliament and total surrender of power to the EU Parliament. Just so we can have only one Parliament...

Explain to me again who has a short sighted childish mentality...

[original PM]

First of all Parliament is not a governing body, but law making one. The EU one was already in place when we joined and not something new, so what changed?

By the sound of it you would have been happy to vote for Brexit for the sake of it even if ballot explicitly stated that it would lead to a significant damage to the economy and quality of life for the UK population.

By your own admission you would have been happy to vote for the dissolution of the UK Parliament and total surrender of power to the EU Parliament. Just so we can have only one Parliament...

Explain to me again who has a short sighted childish mentality...

[BlasterBates]

Since the EU is a kicking stool that everybody criticises, obviously not the EU.

[original PM]

Since the EU is a kicking stool that everybody criticises, obviously not the EU.

When we voted to leave the EU it was the first bit of criticism they had to actual take notice of.

If they had been able to take up arms and force us to stay they would have done.