Clearing a low bar. Maybe.

**Paddy** · 14 December 2017, 13:14

Originally posted by meridian View Post

Just a few months ago, we were definitely going to have the easiest deal in history with the EU. Now, we've set out our stall on ""Canada plus" and "should" get it. By this time next year, will the EU be whistling?

Theresa May means it when she says she wants a 'Canada Plus' Brexit deal. And she should get it

The Canada deal is poo, it covers basic trade only with lots of forms.
No deal on services.
No deal on agriculture
No deal on standards
No deal on banking

**BlasterBates** · 14 December 2017, 15:32

"Canada plus" means much more access to the single market than Canada has. That means Switzerland, but they use "Canada" as a propoganda slogan because the government would be crushed in seconds if they actually said Switzerland. The strategy is that by saying Canada and then giving way point by point over a 5 year period, the frog will only realise it is boiling when it actually boils.

**sal** · 14 December 2017, 16:13

I think that the EU financial centers are already sharpening their teeth to sink them into the UK banking sector. Compared to the billions at stake in it, the potential loss for other sectors of the EU economy from tariffs on trade is pocket change. So the EU will be happy to give us Canada like deal that excludes services. All the major banks are seeing the writing on the wall and have secured extra office space in the EU. They are not stupid enough to lose all that profit.

**meridian** · 15 December 2017, 08:32

Originally posted by sal View Post

I think that the EU financial centers are already sharpening their teeth to sink them into the UK banking sector. Compared to the billions at stake in it, the potential loss for other sectors of the EU economy from tariffs on trade is pocket change. So the EU will be happy to give us Canada like deal that excludes services. All the major banks are seeing the writing on the wall and have secured extra office space in the EU. They are not stupid enough to lose all that profit.

That’s pretty much it. Here’s how I see it playing out:

We enter Phase 2 talks, and by March 2019 we’ve signed off the payment schedule for our obligations, and a transitional period of 2+ years where things will carry on as usual (where we are still paying for everything we currently have but no longer have any MEPs or any say in the regulations that are now forced on us). We also have a heads of agreement for a “Canada-style” trade agreement but nothing set in stone, with the expectation from the UK Govt that this will be determined in detail during the transition period.

We’re now out of the EU, still paying for it with no say, and the trade deal will be spun by HMG as being all but “in the bag”.

At the end of the two years we’ll find out that the trade deal being offered by the EU is Canada with no plus. Paris, Frankfurt, and Dublin have taken the lion’s share of the financial services. We’ll still be paying for access to Erasmus, Euratom, etc. We’ll still be accepting EU regulations because this is written into the Withdrawal Agreement because, well, “Northern Ireland”.

Brexiters will blame the EU, Remainer saboteurs, the weather, the opposition, anyone at all except themselves for not having a plan and not being prepared to back away from Brexit when it was clear it was all going to go tits-up.

(It will be interesting to see if May doubles down next week by trying to push through the leave date into law, rather than leaving it out and allowing herself the flexibility to negotiate to push the date past March 2019)

**BrilloPad** · 15 December 2017, 09:19

Originally posted by Paddy View Post

The Canada deal is poo, it covers basic trade only with lots of forms.
No deal on services.
No deal on agriculture
No deal on standards
No deal on banking

But it does cover maple syrup....

**northernladyuk** · 15 December 2017, 09:22

Originally posted by meridian View Post

Just a few months ago, we were definitely going to have the easiest deal in history with the EU. Now, we've set out our stall on ""Canada plus" and "should" get it. By this time next year, will the EU be whistling?

Theresa May means it when she says she wants a 'Canada Plus' Brexit deal. And she should get it

The EU can definitely go whistle. The UK holds all the cards.

Clearing a low bar. Maybe.