Brexit impact studies
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  1. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by original PM View Post
    Do not confuse planning for the future based on knowns with guessing at what the future could hold for unknowns.

    So for example yes - it is highly likely that 'money' as a thing will not be abolished before I die so the accumulation of wealth is a prudent choice to protect your loved ones.

    What can you tell me exactly about what will happen after Brexit which you feel you could plan for?
    You're confusing (deliberately?) planning for exact outcomes with assessing for contingency and possibilities, and "What If" analysis.

    The question isn't about planning, which is where you are confusing yourself. It's about impact assessments on the various possible outcomes and using those impact assessments to form your policy on where you would like the outcome to head.

    You can call it "guessing" if you like, but that's quite childish.

  2. #32

    More fingers than teeth

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    Actually I think some people have made assessments of Brexit’s likely effects, sadly not the government but big business which, unless something happens within the next 48 hours, may cause repercussions...https://www.theguardian.com/politics...annot-progress

    What Davis has admitted is even more serious than some people realise; no one in the Conservative Party has been making necessary assessments of Brexit’s likely effects. The Referendum was effectively called in May 2015 when the Tories won that year’s General Election, including it as a gesture to ‘buy’ up assurances of support from the party’s extremist fringe. Since then, two-and-a-half years have passed, during which the Referendum has been and gone, the Leave vote won, Article-50 has been activated, and we have had approximately six months of fruitless negotiations in Brussels. In all of that time, no one in either Cameron’s Government or May’s has even bothered to assess what the actual impact of Brexit will be?

    That admission is even more appalling than Davis’ fictitious boasts about what a thorough assessment his department had carried out. After all, if the country does not know what impact ending the current settlement with the EU will have, how can it know what it will need from the new settlement? Little wonder therefore that negotiations with the EU’s representatives are going so badly, when British officials and politicians do not even know the implications of anything they ask for, or even precisely what they need to ask for, or for that matter what will happen if they do not get what they ask for. They have been driving in the dark without headlights for half a year, which has meant progress has not only been difficult, it has been logically impossible; how can progress be made towards a destination that has not even been identified or defined?

    These details were central to everything about how Brexit is to be carried out, and until they were properly calculated, it was insanity on Theresa May’s part choosing to activate Article-50 so soon. It started a two-year countdown, and over half of the first year of precious negotiating time has been wasted on a reckless General Election backfire, and aimless thrashing-about when finally at the table. There is no point in childishly continuing to blame EU officials for the logjams, the fault is entirely on the British side.
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  3. #33

    More fingers than teeth

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    "My officials, supported by officials across Government, are carrying out programme of sectoral analysis and regulatory analysis, which will identify the key factors for some 50 sectors of British business. It is extremely important that the House understands that.

    "We are building a detailed understanding of how the withdrawal from the EU will affect domestic policies, to seize opportunities and ensure a smooth process of exit."

    - David Davis to House of Commons, 5 September 2016

    "We currently have in place an assessment of 51 sectors of the economy.

    "We are looking at those one by one, but the aim at the end is that this will inform the negotiating approach so that no one gets hurt.

    "I should mention that we are also doing that assessment in a way that will throw up whether something has an impact on the individual nations of the United Kingdom, as well as on the UK as a whole."

    - David Davis to House of Commons, 20 October 2016

    "We are in the midst of carrying out about 57 sets of analyses, each of which has implications for individual parts of 85% of the economy...

    "We are taking our time to get prepared on all fronts. That is why our 57 studies cover 85% of the economy - everything except sectors that are not affected by international trade...

    "We will also look at the regional effect. The idea of this aim is to get the best outcome for the country as a whole, but to make sure that everybody gains from it."

    - David Davis to Brexit Committee, 14 December 2016

    "We continue to analyse the impact of our exit across the breadth of the UK economy, covering more than 50 sectors - I think it was 58 at the last count - to shape our negotiating position.

    - David Davis to the House of Commons, 2 February 2017

    "In my job I don’t think out loud and I don’t make guesses. Those two things. I try and make decisions. You make those based on the data.

    "That data’s being gathered, we’ve got 50, nearly 60 sector analyses already done, we’ve got planning work going on in the customs, we’ve got planning work going on 22 other issues which are critical, 127 all told."

    - David Davis to BBC Andrew Marr Show, 25 June 2017

    Labour MP Seema Malhotra: Has the Prime Minister seen the impact assessments that have been published, yes or no?

    David Davis: The details of them? Sorry, did you say “have been published”?

    Seema Malhotra: Sorry, I am just asking whether she has seen the impact assessments. A yes or no answer is fine.

    David Davis: Which ones? I will give a proper answer; I do not give yes/no answers.

    Seema Malhotra: I mean the impact assessments that you have not published.

    David Davis: That we have not published?

    Seema Malhotra: Yes.

    David Davis: She will know the summary outcomes of them. She will not necessarily have read every single one. They are in excruciating detail.

    - David Davis to Brexit Committee, 25 October 2017

    "We are conducting a broad range of analysis at the macroeconomic and sectoral level to understand the impact of leaving the EU on all aspects of the UK, including the agriculture sector."

    - David Davis-signed response to House of Lords Committee, 30 October 2017

    “We are looking at the British economy, sector by sector, to see the impact that Brexit might have on it and taking a sounding of views right across the economy. That seems to me to be the perfectly logical way to approach this, acting purely in the national interest."

    - Brexit minister Lord Bridges to the House of Lords, 14 September 2016

    "It is an attempt to try to get this into a manageable format so that we can analyse what Brexit might mean for those particular sectors."

    - Brexit minister Lord Bridges, evidence to Lords Brexit committee, 13 October 2016
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  4. #34

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    There is a theory that the assessments have been done. However, the results of any of them are so dire that Davis is suppressing them and would rather be thought a liar than release them, as this may result in Brexit being rethought.

    Ideology and party over country.

    There's another competing theory that Davis is simply too thick to do this.

  5. #35

    More time posting than coding

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    Quote Originally Posted by meridian View Post
    You're confusing (deliberately?) planning for exact outcomes with assessing for contingency and possibilities, and "What If" analysis.

    The question isn't about planning, which is where you are confusing yourself. It's about impact assessments on the various possible outcomes and using those impact assessments to form your policy on where you would like the outcome to head.

    You can call it "guessing" if you like, but that's quite childish.
    Ironically he's supposed to be a PM and doesn't seem to understand the importance of impact analysis. He must be one of those modern type of PMs
    I may not know Karate, but I know crazy and I'm not afraid to use it

  6. #36

    Old Greg is my bitch's bitch

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    Quote Originally Posted by Whorty View Post
    Ironically he's supposed to be a PM and doesn't seem to understand the importance of impact analysis. He must be one of those modern type of PMs
    He is so thick, I am starting to suspect he is David Davis.
    Where there's muck there's brass.

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