Tory Brexit DOOM™: No deal

[BrilloPad]

Except a hard Brexit would make returning to the EU easier as there would be no deals to unpick or re-negotiate.

Once the UK leaves and makes a success of it there will be no EU left to return to.

[WTFH]

Once the UK leaves and makes a success of it there will be no EU left to return to.

You mean never?
Either we leave or we make a success of it.
To do both is highly unlikely in my lifetime.

...in fact to do either is looking slim in the next 4 years (certainly not by 25th June 2018 as originally promised)

[BrilloPad]

You mean never?
Either we leave or we make a success of it.
To do both is highly unlikely in my lifetime.

...in fact to do either is looking slim in the next 4 years (certainly not by 25th June 2018 as originally promised)

It is this sort of defeatist attitude that makes you an ideal mod.

History has taught us predictions(especially about the future) can be wrong.

You can only be certain of death, the sun rising and the game of "hide the ketchup bottle" at the mod Christmas party....

[BlasterBates]

Which is precisely why it won't be Switzerland (also rejected explicitly BTW) It will be Switzerland minus because, if HMG has been clear about anything, it's that the post-Brexit immigration system will not be consistent with full access to the SM. May has repeatedly offered that as a "lesson learned" from the referendum. The outlines of that system have already been leaked. They didn't need to do this; they could've gone the Swiss route, which Hannan and some other Leavers advocate.



Only if you subscribe to the noddy book of free trade. An apple isn't the "same" as an orange We won't end up with the same degree of convergence in agriculture as financial services or pharmaceuticals, for example.

...and after all the bluster of not accepting the ECJ or freedom of movement after March 2019 what did May say yesterday in parliament.



...did you see Jacob's face yesterday

This is the point, the government keeps doing U-turns.

It is abundantly clear that the UK will not extricate itself from the "transition deal" for many years, and when Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris have long gone, then an alternative government probably Labour will be signing the UK to a Swiss or EEA deal if not rejoining because everyone is fed up.

[jamesbrown]

...and after all the bluster of not accepting the ECJ or freedom of movement after March 2019 what did May say yesterday in parliament.



...did you see Jacob's face yesterday

This is the point, the government keeps doing U-turns.

It is abundantly clear that the UK will not extricate itself from the "transition deal" for many years, and when Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris have long gone, then an alternative government probably Labour will be signing the UK to a Swiss or EEA deal if not rejoining because everyone is fed up.

Evidently, you're too emotionally attached to remaining in the EU to take a dispassionate view of what is actually happening. Mogg et al. will accept nothing short of complete detachment, and that was never going to happen. They don't want Switzerland minus. If you'd chosen to pay attention, the direction of travel has been clear from Lancaster House. An implementation period makes no sense unless it closely mirrors the status quo, and the EU aren't going to accept the status quo without the ECJ. The idea that businesses could make two sets of changes in as many years is patently absurd.

Either there will be no deal or, I dare say your worst nightmare, we reach a deal that looks substantively different than EU membership and we transition different parts according to the actual time taken, which will be less than two years for some aspects, potentially more for others. The outlines are emerging and you don't like them

[BlasterBates]

Evidently, you're too emotionally attached to remaining in the EU to take a dispassionate view of what is actually happening. Mogg et al. will accept nothing short of complete detachment, and that was never going to happen. They don't want Switzerland minus. If you'd chosen to pay attention, the direction of travel has been clear from Lancaster House. An implementation period makes no sense unless it closely mirrors the status quo, and the EU aren't going to accept the status quo without the ECJ. The idea that businesses could make two sets of changes in as many years is patently absurd.

Either there will be no deal or, I dare say your worst nightmare, we reach a deal that looks substantively different than EU membership and we transition different parts according to the actual time taken, which will be less than two years for some aspects, potentially more for others. The outlines are emerging and you don't like them

It is now clear that there will be a transition deal, and it will go on much longer than planned. The free trade deal will be tortuous, the Tories won't complete the transition, will lose the election and a Labour government will frog march the UK into the EEA or something similar.

The Brexiteers are right to smell a rat

The tide is already turning and Boris looks miserable on the font bench.

[SueEllen]

It is now clear that there will be a transition deal, and it will go on much longer than planned. The free trade deal will be tortuous, the Tories won't complete the transition, will lose the election and a Labour government will frog march the UK into the EEA or something similar.

The Brexiteers are right to smell a rat

The tide is already turning and Boris looks miserable on the font bench.

Which is why May must not sack him until the deal is done.


Her legacy can be like Thatcher's to Heseltine. (Who incidentally hates him linky )

[Bean]

It is now clear that there will be a transition deal, and it will go on much longer than planned. The free trade deal will be tortuous, the Tories won't complete the transition, will lose the election and a Labour government will frog march the UK into the EEA or something similar.

The Brexiteers are right to smell a rat

The tide is already turning and Boris looks miserable on the font bench.

Think you're forgetting how much Lab want the public to vote on the final Brexit deal - so how they frogmarch the UK into a deal is less than clear.

Also, If there is any deal, then businesses are going to have to change - if Lab try to force the UK into EEA etc, then businesses will have to change again (this is also why big businesses will continue to work against Lab getting voted in)

Other than that, I agree with Jamesbrown, you're not looking objectively due to your own opinions, biases etc.

[BlasterBates]

Think you're forgetting how much Lab want the public to vote on the final Brexit deal - so how they frogmarch the UK into a deal is less than clear.

Also, If there is any deal, then businesses are going to have to change - if Lab try to force the UK into EEA etc, then businesses will have to change again (this is also why big businesses will continue to work against Lab getting voted in)

Other than that, I agree with Jamesbrown, you're not looking objectively due to your own opinions, biases etc.

The transition deal is the EEA, in effect. That's why Farage and Rees-Mogg are up in arms. The transition period will go on for years. By the time Rees-Mogg decides he'd had enough there will be a GE anyway.

Interesting as Michael Heseltine has said, it is highly likely in the longterm that the UK will adopt the Euro.

[jamesbrown]

It is now clear that there will be a transition deal, and it will go on much longer than planned. The free trade deal will be tortuous, the Tories won't complete the transition, will lose the election and a Labour government will frog march the UK into the EEA or something similar.

The Brexiteers are right to smell a rat

The tide is already turning and Boris looks miserable on the font bench.

Matthew Parris. You may as well ask Nick Clegg. The ultra-remain journos and commentators have reinvigorated their ailing careers with the smell of rat droppings at every turn.

Look, a squirrel!

I predict a painful few years for the remain ultras