Will Brexit be a success or failure?

[PurpleGorilla]

Will Brexit be a success or failure?

fer feck's sake lads, I know there's this self perpetuating feel good factor of knocking all of the other countries to make yourselves feel better in your collective inadequacy, but,

have any of you ever been to Italy, or are you going by what the Daily Mail and Torygraph tell you ?

I've driven across Italy, all I could see was:

. evidence of very strong seasonal tourism activities, winter season and summer season, even the ski resorts now have summer seasons because they put the mountain bikes on the ski lifts and cycle down the hills, I've heard that Livigno is busier in the summer than the winter !

ok, but winter and summer tourism will not feed the whole country, so what else is there ?

On my drive across the country I noticed,

. Italy has vast amounts of manufacturing, not just cars and trucks and ice cream machines, but look around you at all kinds of mechanical engineering and manufacturing items that come out of Italy, every city was surrounded by state of the art looking factories

and of course driving across the country, between the cities you have the countryside, and do they have countryside, their agriculture business is much bigger than ours, they have a longer season and a richer variety of crops to grow thanks to their weather and climate, fruit and veg (horticulture on a mega scale) are probably as big as agriculture

of course when an economy is founded on a strong base of manufacturing and agriculture, everything else will site nicely on top, services, retail, etc etc

To conclude, lads, don't believe everything you hear about Italy, because having been there many times, it looks to me as though they are doing just fine

Milan.

Good, I love Italy, glad it is doing so well.

So why are they in so much debt?

[milanbenes]

Good, I love Italy, glad it is doing so well.

So why are they in so much debt?

I guess they borrowed a lot of money

that's normally how you get into debt isn't it

as long as they can service it

Milan.

[milanbenes]

this is a nice explanation

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documen...8-bee8d10f6fa2

Milan.

[PurpleGorilla]

I guess they borrowed a lot of money

that's normally how you get into debt isn't it

as long as they can service it

Milan.

Is this fixing the roof when the sun is shining?

[BrilloPad]

Italy has a great economy. Their only issue is a bad exchange rate.

[milanbenes]

Is this fixing the roof when the sun is shining?

if they are fixing it now then yes, let's not forget recent history, there was a period during the last 15 years, it started a couple of years after the dot com crash, interest rates became very low, and the whole world was promoting debt, at personal levels and government levels, I remember the articles in the newspapers in 2005 time explaining that everybody should release the equity in their homes by extending their mortgages and get that money working for itself, the idiot journalists were arguing you're a fool if you don't (Editor's Note - that's when I started accumulating gold at 400$ an ounce)
and we can only imagine the pressure at government levels to borrow borrow borrow in this world of free money. The situation was compounded with most European country governments being left wing at the time, eg TB in the UK, and as we all know, the lefties are not famous for save and prosper mentalities

so considering the history we can see how they got into the situation

it was a classical Rothchilds model pump and dump, and then hoover up all of the assets when the music stops

and back to the point yes Italy is 130% debt to GDP, as long as they can service it then they have a chance to get out of it, and from personal experience, ie, having driven through the country many times, it's looks like the most important pieces of the puzzle are in place, solid foundation to the economy, so, I conclude they have every chance to fix their situation

and let's not forget, the EU27 as a whole have a combined debt to GDP ratio of ~90% so the EU is not going to collapse tomorrow as Mordy and their ilk would wish for

Infact Mordy et al, have a look at the debt to GDP ratio of the CEE countries you'll be surprised !

Milan.

[BrilloPad]

as long as they can service it then they have a chance to get out of it

If they can't service it, like Greece, then it will be rolled up. No-one will admit the money has been "lost". I am not sure why Greece or Italy bother paying anything.

[The_Equalizer]

If they can't service it, like Greece, then it will be rolled up. No-one will admit the money has been "lost". I am not sure why Greece or Italy bother paying anything.

To keep German bankers happy?

[BrilloPad]

To keep German bankers happy?

More likely the German government. They keep telling the Germans that they will see their money back.

[milanbenes]

More likely the German government. They keep telling the Germans that they will see their money back.

I've got a lot of German colleagues and friends, they are happy with the loans, they actually see it as an investment,

they say...

we give them money they buy our products

what's not to like ?

Milan.